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TIME is more than Money – It is EVERYTHING
TIME is more than Money – It is EVERYTHING TIME is more than just money; it’s absolutely everything and then some! Personal opinion just utterly fails because we are all human. Markets routinely do what the majority never expects. That is their function. They mutate like a virus always changing its genetic code to defeat […]
The world in 2018 – Part One
The world in 2018 – Part One New Year predictions are getting more and more popular. In a world that is growing ever more complex and confusing, we seem to be increasingly eager to get some hints about what lies in the fog just ahead of us. Yet what we need is probably less to get […]
Forecast 2018 — What Could Go Wrong?
Forecast 2018 — What Could Go Wrong? Markets If you take your cues from Consensus Trance Central — the cable news networks, The New York Times, WashPost, and HuffPo — Trump is all that ails this foundering empire. Well, Trump andRussia, since the Golden Golem of Greatness is in league with Vladimir Putin to loot […]
Oil Price Scenario for 2018
Oil Price Scenario for 2018 It is that time of year again where we try to forecast what the oil price will do over the coming 12 months. Last year I forecast $60 / bbl for Brent year ending 2017 and with Brent trading on $66.50 as I write I can conclude that I got […]
What Should Be the Criteria for Model Selection?
WHAT SHOULD BE THE CRITERIA FOR MODEL SELECTION? In order to make the data “talk,” economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally held that by means of statistical correlations one can organize historical data into a useful body of […]
Even Advanced Technology Cannot Explain Human Action or Predict Markets
Even Advanced Technology Cannot Explain Human Action or Predict Markets The logic of the human mind will prevail over paternalist dictates and the hubris of the social engineers. For more than a century, the world has been caught in the grip of social engineers and political paternalists who are determined to either radically remake society […]
3D printing, AI and Robots v Dark Age
3D printing, AI and Robots v Dark Age QUESTION: Hello, Mr. Armstrong. Let us say that the future turns out OK-ish (post crash and burn), that we avoid another dark age. 3D printing, AI and robots do a lot of the work for humanity. The amount of available mundane jobs are reduced and replaced by […]
Economists Are the New Astrologers
Economists Are the New Astrologers When Christopher Nolan was promoting his previous film Interstellar, he made the casual observation that “Take a field like economics for example. [Unlike physics] you have real material things and it can’t predict anything. It’s always wrong.” There is a lot more truth in that statement than most academic economists […]
Researchers Discover That Social Media Posts Can Be Used To Predict Riots, Revolutions, And Even The Weather
Researchers Discover That Social Media Posts Can Be Used To Predict Riots, Revolutions, And Even The Weather Most of us don’t give much thought to what we post on social media, and a lot of what we see on social media is pretty innocuous. However, it only seems that way at first glance. The truth […]
Retrotopia: Back To What Worked
Retrotopia: Back To What Worked This is the fifteenth installment of an exploration of some of the possible futures discussed on this blog, using the toolkit of narrative fiction. Our narrator visits another school, catches the flu, and has his first encounter with the Lakeland Republic’s health care system… *********** I made some phone calls […]
Life Finds a Way
LIFE FINDS A WAY “The snag for them is that it happened on Monday. And all the official pronouncements in the State media were: “Well, it’s a blip. It’s a very rare event.” Well, it’s happened three days later so you then have to ask yourself, “How much of a blip is it ?” And […]
2016 Economic Predictions: Year of the Epocalypse
2016 Economic Predictions: Year of the Epocalypse An economic apocalypse upon us. My 2016 economic predictions provide the full explanation as to why 2016 will be the year of the Epocalypse — a word that encompasses the roots “economic, epoch, collapse” and “apocalypse.” I needed a word big enough to describe all that is about to befall the world in 2016. When you […]
The Onion Predicted All Of This Back in 2003
The Onion Predicted All Of This Back in 2003 “George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more,” read a 2003 article on The Onion a week after then-President George Bush launched the Iraq War. While a […]
