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This is Part 5 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. Links to Part 1 to Part 4 are shown below:

World Energy 2018-2050

World Oil 2018-2050

World Natural Gas 2018-2050

World Coal 2018-2050

This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels consumption, evaluates the future prospect of global warming and considers the implications of global emissions budget (to limit global warming to no more than two degrees Celsius) for economic growth. Figures are placed at the end of each section.

In 2017, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) accounted for 85 percent of the world primary energy consumption. Consumption of fossil fuels results in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. In 2017, the global average surface temperature anomaly was 1.18ºC (degrees Celsius). The ten-year average global surface temperature anomaly from 2008 to 2017 was 1.00 ºC (NASA 2018). Global surface temperature anomaly is measured by the difference between the global average surface temperature and the average global temperature during 1880-1920. The latter is used as a proxy for the pre-industrial global average temperature (Hansen and Sato 2016).

A scientific consensus has been established that if global average surface temperature rises to and stays above 2ºC higher than the pre-industrial global average temperature, dangerous climate change with catastrophic consequences cannot be avoided. According to Hansen et al. (2016), global warming by more than 2ºC will lead to the melting of West Antarctica ice sheets, causing sea level to rise by 5-9 meters over the next 50-200 years. Bangladesh, European lowlands, the US eastern coast, North China plains, and many coastal cities will be submerged. Further increase in global average temperature may eventually lead to runaway warming, turning much of the world unsuitable for human inhabitation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC October Production Data

November 14, 2018

OPEC October Production Data

All OPEC data below is from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report The data is through October 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 15 crude oil production was up 127,000 barrels per day in October. that was after September production was revised upward by 13,000 bpd.

OPEC production will likely be up a bit more in November but down considerably in December.

Iran down 156,000 barrels per day in October due to sanctions.

Iraq production has been flat lately. They are obviously pumping every barrel they possibly can.

Kuwaiti crude oil production has been relatively flat for 6.5 years. During that period their oil rig count increased from around 20 to a high of 44. It has recently dropped to 35 however. It should be obvious that they are producing flat out.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Brazil Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

October 18, 2018

Brazil Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

brazil c&c production

Brazil and Petrobras show something in common with US LTO: even with a lot of debt and desire, and a strong resource base it is difficult to raise production in the face of high decline rates. It may also be a lesson for the world as oil prices rise and activity picks up; it is by far the most active conventional oil region with many major projects at various stages of completion, but facing delays and schedule crowding so oil production has continued a slow decline, contrary to expectations from last year. In July new production again did not quite match overall decline, mostly because of delays in start-ups of FPSOs planned for this year, and at 2575 kbpd was down 14 kbpd or 0.5% m-o-m and 48 kbpd or 1.8% y-o-y (data from ANP).

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Two FPSOs were started in 2017: Lula Extension Sul (P-66) at 150 kbpd nameplate and Pioneiro de Libra, an extended well test project on the Mero field, at 50 kbpd. Both are now about at design throughput. Two other FPSOs completed ramp up in 2017. In 2018 three FPSOs have started up: Atlanta a small early production system at 20 kbpd, Bezios-1 (P-74) in the Santos basin at 150 kbpd and FPSO Cidade de Campos dos Goytacazes on the Tartaruga Verde field in Campos, also at 150 kbpd. There were three other FPSOs due for the Buzios field (P-75, 76 and 77) but at least one is delayed till next year. There are now four planned FPSOs remaining to be started up this year, all in the fourth quarter: P-75 and P-76 plus P-67 (Lula Norte) and P-69 (Lula Extremo Sul) in the Lula field (each 150 kbpd nameplate).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC September Production Data

October 12, 2018

OPEC September Production Data

The below charts were created with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the data through September 2018.

OPEC crude only was up 132,000 barrels per day in September to 32,761,000 bpd. that is still 650,000 barrels per day below their all time high in October of 2016.

August production was revised up by 63,000 bpd so production was actually up 195,000 bpd from what was reported last month.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – August 2018 Edition with data for July

October 4, 2018

EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – August 2018 Edition with data for July

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The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on September 25th, with data for July 2018. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the year to date.

For the month of July, the total amount of electricity generated was the second highest amount generated for any single month since January 2013 at 410,148 GWh, 2,302 GWh less than the amount generated in July 2016. Coal and Natural Gas fueled almost 68.5% of US electricity generation in July and while the contribution from Coal increased from 27.36% in June to 28.18% in July, the contribution from Natural Gas also increased by slightly more than five percentage points, reaching an unprecedented 40.28% up from 35.02% in June. Nuclear power generated 72,456 GWh, 3.97% more than it did in June but, due to the increase in total generation, the percentage contribution to the total actually declined to 17.67% from 18.77% in June.

In July, the contribution from All Renewables at 13.01% fell further below that from Nuclear at 17.67%, similar to July 2017 when the ramp up of total generation resulted in the percentage contribution from All Renewables falling further below that from Nuclear. The absolute contribution from Solar declined from it’s all time high in June of 10,880 GWh to 10,049 GWh, with the corresponding percentage contribution declining to 2.45% as opposed to 2.93% in June. The amount of electricity generated by Wind decreased by almost 35%, from 24,411 GWh to 15,897 GWh and coupled with the increased total generation, the percentage contribution declined from 6.58% to 3.88% in July. The contribution from Hydro decreased 13.53% from 27415 GWh in June to 23706 GWh, resulting in the percentage contribution decreasing from 7.39% in June to 5.78%. The combined contribution from Wind and Solar decreased to 6.33% from 9.51% in June. Consequently the contribution from Non-Hydro Renewables also decreased to 7.23% from 10.48%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GoM Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

September 28, 2018

GoM Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

crude and condensate reserves

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BOEM remaining C&C reserve estimates for GoM increased by 649 mmbbls for 2016 (i.e. to 31st December 2016). This was 112% reserve replacement and followed a similar growth of 618 mmbbls (111% reserve replacement) for 2015. The BOEM reserve calculation method appears to give highly conservative estimates. The increasing reserves followed several years, from 2006, of less than 100% reserve replacement, and actually negative numbers in 2006 and 2008. Current total original reserves (i.e. ultimate recovery) are a new high beating 2006 values, though deep water numbers are still below that year with the main growth appearing to be coming from: 1) older fields that were downgraded because of changes in SPE rules in 2007 (i.e. that reserves could only be booked if there were clear plans for their development within five years); and 2) newer discoveries, mostly smaller fields that are developed through tie-backs to existing hubs. These newer fields often do not get shown as new discoveries because BOEM records production and reserves against leases and each lease is recorded against a single field, even if there are deposits of different depth, age, geology and significant spacial separation within in it.

Current oil reserves are 3.569 Gb, which is 15% of the estimated original reserve (aka ultimate recovery). BOEM give the reserves as 2P (i.e. proven and probable) but they look very conservative and are actually lower than the EIA numbers, shown below, given for proven only and based on the operators own numbers, although the two are converging. The historical reserve histories look closer to how 1P (proven) numbers often appear, for example with some fields maintaining near constant R/P numbers, some showing large early drops that then come back over time, and some numbers being suspiciously low on fields obviously not near run out production rates (e.g. Mad Dog and Son of Bluto 2).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Coal 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 4)

September 20, 2018

World Coal 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 4)

This is Part 4 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world coal production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world coal supply and considers the implications of peak coal production for global economic growth.

This report uses Hubbert linearization to evaluate a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources where a Hubbert linear trend can be meaningfully established, that is, where a clear downward trend of the annual production to cumulative production ratios can be identified and has been established for at least several years. Otherwise, this report uses alternative sources to establish a region’s ultimately recoverable coal resources, such as official reserves, official projections, or estimates made by energy research institutions.

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Figure 14 World Historical and Projected Coal Production, 1950-2050

Figures are placed at the end of each section.

Coal Consumption by Major Economies, 1990-2017

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world coal consumption was 3,732 million tons of oil equivalent in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, world coal consumption grew at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent.

Figure 1 compares the historical world economic growth rates and the coal consumption growth rates from 1991 to 2017. The coal consumption growth rate has an intercept of -0.031 at zero economic growth rate and a slope of 1.496. That is, coal consumption has an “autonomous” tendency to fall by 3.1 percent a year when economic growth rate is zero. However, an increase (or decrease) in economic growth rate by one percentage point is associated with an increase (or decrease) in coal consumption by about 1.5 percent. R-square for the linear trend is 0.45. In 2017, world coal consumption grew by 0.7 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below what is implied by the historical trend.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC August Production Data

September 13, 2018

OPEC August Production Data

Data for the OPEC charts below are from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All OPEC data are through August 2018 and in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 15 crude only production was up 278,000 barrels per day in August to 32,565,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Libya, up 256,000 bpd.

July OPEC production was revised down 38,000 barrels per day.

Sanctions are beginning to have an affect on Iranian production.

Iraq reached a new high in August, but just barely. They had 4,649,000 bpd. Their previous high was 4,642,000 bpd in December 2016.

Libya was the big gainer in August, up 256,000 bpd to 926,000 bpd. They are still fighting rebels however. They will likely be down slightly in September.

I think Saudi Arabia will hold pretty close to this level for awhile now.

Venezuela’s decline continues. They are now over 1,100,000 barrels per day from their average in 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA’s Latest USA & World Oil Production Data

September 5, 2018

EIA’s Latest USA & World Oil Production Data

These first charts are taken from the EIA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production. The data are through June 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

US C+C production was up 231,000 barrels per day in June to 10,674,000 bpd, an all-time high.

Texas was up 165,000 barrels per day in June to 4,410,000 bpd.

New Mexico was up 5,000 barrels per day in June to 657,000 bpd. The Permian extends into New Mexico.

North Dakota was down 16,000 barrels per day in June to 1,220,000 bpd.

Oklahoma was down 3,000 barrels per day in June to 526,000 bpd.

Colorado was down 24,000 barrels per day in June to 423,000 bpd.

California was down 2,000 barrels per dayin June to 462,000 bpd. California peaked in February of 1987 at 1,109,000 bpd.

Alaska was down 45,000 barrels per day in June to 451,000 bpd. June, July, August, and part of September are the prime maintenance months for Alaska. The maintenance includes pigging the pipeline and overhauling the pumps along the pipeline.

The Gulf of Mexico was up 154,000 barrels per day in June to 1,658,000 bpd. Just a couple of years ago the EIA was predicting the GOM to be at almost 2 million barrels per day by now. I really don’t think that is going to happen anytime soon.

I wanted US Less Permian but the EIA doesn’t break it out that way. So I will just have to settle for all the Permian plus Eagle Ford and East Texas. East Texas is in decline while Eagle Ford is still increasing. But my point is the rest of the US seems to be settling out to about where it was in 2015.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mexico Production and Reserves, 1H2018

August 20, 2018

Mexico Production and Reserves, 1H2018

mexico c&c production

Mexico oil production is in decline though, at the moment, not as steep as it was expected to be (at least by me – IEA predictions are closer).

Data is through June and comes from Pemex and National Hydrocarbons Information Center (CNIH)(both sites are pretty good).

For June C&C was 1870 kbpd, down 25 kbpd from May and 170 kbpd y-o-y. Yearly decline rates for each region are shown in the chart below. Production peaked in 2004/2005 at just over 3500 kbpd, so overall decline is approaching 50%.

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Most of the decline has been in light oil and condensate, with heavy oil holding fairly level.

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ku-maloob-zaap

The largest producer is the Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex (KMZ), which has been kept on a plateau, contrary to predictions of a decline starting about now from a Pemex presentation in 2012. The production has been maintained mainly by increasing flow from the Maloob field, and it looks like this has resulted in increased nitrogen production. Ku and Zaap production has been maintained, but the Ku field is getting close to exhaustion now. Ku is a medium oil at API 22°, while Maloob and Zaap produce heavy oil at API 12°. The two types of oil are processed separately so it’s not clear that decline in Ku can be fully replaced by the heavier oil fields, which I think also require more nitrogen for voidage replacement. Nitrogen injection to maintain production there was started in 2014, which was also when overall production came off a temporary plateau and started the current steady decline period. It would be interesting to know how the total available nitrogen is apportioned to the fields; presumably the total available is fixed and therefore so too is the net voidage replacement capacity and hence the total amount of heavy oil that can be produced.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World Natural Gas 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 3)

August 8, 2018

World Natural Gas 2018-2050: World Energy Annual Report (Part 3)

This is Part 3 of the World Energy Annual Report in 2018. This part of the Annual Report provides updated analysis of world natural gas production and consumption, evaluates the future prospect of world natural gas supply and considers the implications of peak natural gas production for global economic growth.

Natural gas is in a relatively early phase of depletion. According to the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, world cumulative natural gas production up to 2016 was 117 trillion cubic meters, world natural gas reserves were 197 trillion cubic meters, and world natural gas resources were 643 trillion cubic meters (BGR 2017, Table A-15). BGR defines “resources” as “proven amounts of energy resources which cannot currently be exploited for technical and/or economic reasons, as well as unproven but geologically possible energy resources which may be exploitable in future” (BGR 2017, Glossary). According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world natural gas reserves at the end of 2017 were 194 trillion cubic meters (166 billion tons of oil equivalent).

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World Historical and Projected Natural Gas Production, 1980-2050

This report uses official reserves, official projections, or energy research institution estimates to establish the ultimately recoverable natural gas resources for the world’s ten largest natural gas producers. For the rest of the world (the world total less the ten largest natural gas producers), this report uses Hubbert linearization to establish the ultimately recoverable natural gas resources.

Figures are placed at the end of each section.

Natural Gas Consumption by Major Economies, 1990-2017

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world natural gas consumption was 3,156 million tons of oil equivalent (3,670 billion cubic meters) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, world natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

U.S. & World Oil Production and ExxonMobil Outlook

August 4, 2018

U.S. & World Oil Production and ExxonMobil Outlook

Here are the latest oil production numbers from the EIA. All data is in thousand barrels per day unless otherwise noted.

The USA through May 2018. The upward surge has stalled for the last two months. US production was down 30,000 bpd in May.

It is a little astonishing how close the Texas chart resembles the USA chart. Texas is, by far, the USA’s largest producer. As Texas goes, so goes the USA. Texas production was up 20,000 bpd in May.

North Dakota production has increased significantly in the last two months. They were up 67,000 bpd in April and up another 25,000 bpd in May.

Gulf of Mexico production was down 99,000 bpd in April and down another 75,000 bpd in May.

Alaska was down only 1,000 bpd in may but that was 12,000 bpd lower than last may. They are now entering the maintenance season. Expect huge drops in June and July.

The EIA data in this chart is through April and the National Energy Board data is <b>estimated</b> through December 2018. The EIA data is usually lower than the NEB data but they both agree on April production.

World crude oil production was up 326,000 bpd in <b>April.</b>

Non-OPEC production reached a new peak in April, up 405,000 bpd to 47,159,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Canada, up 317,000 and the U.K., up 111,000 bpd.

Here I am adding a few charts and comments from ExxonMobil’s 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Their text is in italics. Any bold in their text is mine.

• Technology improvements lead to wind, solar and biofuels increasing, with a combined growth of about 5 percent per year
• Non-fossil fuels reach about 22 percent of total energy mix by 2040
• Oil continues to provide the largest share of the energy mix; essential for transportation and chemicals
• Natural gas demand rises the most, largely to help meet increasing needs for electricity and support increasing industrial demand

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

UK Offshore Production: Summary for First Quarter 2018

July 21, 2018

UK Offshore Production: Summary for First Quarter 2018

UK C&C

It was expected by many, me included but more importantly UKOGA and a couple of the bigger oil and gas consultancies, that UK offshore oil production would increase significantly from 2017 to exceed 1000 kbpd for the yearly average in 2018. So far this is proving a bit of a challenge. March production was 934 kbpd, down 7% m-o-m and 2% y-o-y (but up 0.8% for the first quarter compared with 2017). It’s possible that some fields have not reported but those showing zero for the month are not big producers. The biggest single field drop came from Clair but most fields saw declines, even the newer ones. Jodi data indicates there will be a rise shown for April to slightly above 1000 kbpd and then a fall back to around March numbers in May (note edit based on July Jodi data); there is usually a summer dip because of maintenance shutdowns (plus this year some strikes at Total platforms will impact).

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Two of the largest oil producers, Buzzard and the Golden Eagle Area Development, both operated by Nexen, have started accelerated decline following increasing water breakthrough (especially noticeable in GEAD over the past year). The newest large field is Scheihallion. This is a redevelopment with its neighbouring field, Loyal, through the Glen Lyon FPSO (also called the Quad 204 project), which was started last year. So far the combined decline in Buzzard and GEAD is almost matching growth in Scheihallion.

The Clair Ridge platforms, which will also exploit the remaining heavy oil in the Clair field, were installed last year but there have been multiple delays and production is not now expected until later this year. Once it is ramped up, which could take three or four years despite it having some predrilled wells, the project will be the largest producer at 100 to 120 mmbpd and has an eight year plateau, while Scheihallion/Loyal will plateau and decline quickly.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

GoM: First Quarter 2018, Production Summary

June 20, 2018

GoM: First Quarter 2018, Production Summary

crude and condensate

BOEM has March 2018 production at 1696 kbpd, which is down 1% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year (March 2017 was the peak production month for GoM so far). EIA numbers were very similar, although last month’s were higher and haven’t been revised yet – typically EIA numbers end up almost exactly corresponding to the BOEM reported total qualified lease production, whereas BOEM can be a little higher, maybe including test wells or non-qualified leases.

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The major new project, Stampede, started in January, has no reported production numbers yet. BOEM and EIA estimate non-reported values and then retrospectively adjust their reports when actual numbers are available. I don’t know how they estimate new production but Stampede could produce around 60 kbpd with current plans, though likely a lot less initially as only one of two leases has been ramping up. I’ve assumed 20 and 40 kbpd for February and March respectively, which still might be high. Even allowing for that, and assuming other late numbers are the same as the previous month, since December EIA and BOEM both have estimates about 30 to 40 kbpd higher than the reported lease and well production numbers (which always match closely) would suggest. Usually the difference is no more than ten. It is unlikely that the other late numbers, of which there are few, and none for all four months, will show such large, sudden and unexplained increases so either I’m missing something (maybe a lease not yet included in the numbers, but also not reported as starting up) or there could be some future downward adjustments.

Rigel and Otis are still off-line following the failure at a subsea manifold last October and are taking out about 22 kbpd plus some gas (Otis is a small gas field). Great White, Stones (for the full month) and Caesar/Tonga all had noticeable downtime in March taking about 90 kbpd off-stream.

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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC May Oil Production

June 14, 2018

OPEC May Oil Production

All OPEC data below is from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All OPEC data is in thousand barrels per day and is through May 2018.

OPEC 14 Crude oil production was up 35,000 barrels per day but that was after March production had been revised down by 32,000 bpd and April production was revised down by 89,000 bpd.

Nigeria’s April production was revised down by 27,000 bpd and Saudi Arabia’s April production was revised down by 58,000 bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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