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Tag Archives: gdp
Global Trade Dives Most since the Financial Crisis
Global Trade Dives Most since the Financial Crisis How great was the global economy in the first quarter? We know the US economy was crummy. The revised GDP estimate will likely sink into red mire. Hence the heated proposals these days, including at the Fed, to apply “a second round of seasonal adjustment” that would “correct” […]
Analysis: China Stalls on Debt Reforms
Analysis: China Stalls on Debt Reforms Background The Chinese government has a $3.5 trillion-dollar problem in the form of local government debt. Most of it accrued in the years between 2007 and 2014, when China’s total debt spiked from $7.4 trillion to $28 trillion, or from 158% of GDP to 282%. At fault was a […]
Stocks and Bonds Are Due for a Generational Crash of 75%
Stocks and Bonds Are Due for a Generational Crash of 75% From the point of view of history, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. If we look back to 1981 valuations of stocks and bonds as a guide to valuations […]
The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent
The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent Did you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet? And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is […]
Preempting a Misleading Argument: Why Environmental Problems Will Stop Tracking with GDP
Preempting a Misleading Argument: Why Environmental Problems Will Stop Tracking with GDP I hate to say I told you so, and could be too dead to do so, so I’ll tell you in advance: One decade soon, environmental problems will stop tracking with GDP. But the reasons? Well, they probably aren’t what you think, especially […]
US Economy Collapses Again
US Economy Collapses Again 4th Time in 4 years Data released last week by the U.S. government showed the U.S. economy came to a near halt in the first three months of 2015, falling to nearly zero – i.e. a mere 0.2 percent annual growth rate for the January-March quarter. The collapse was the fourth […]
Energy prices and consumer spending
Energy prices and consumer spending Among the disappointments in the 2015:Q1 GDP figures was weak consumption growth, which was a little surprising given the extra cash most consumers have on hand as a result of lower energy prices. I wanted to take a look at how the recent consumer behavior compares with what we’ve seen historically. The […]
The Goldilocks Illusion
The Goldilocks Illusion Why Market Participants Liked the Payrolls Report Some people have wondered why the stock market reacted with such a big rally to last Friday’s payrolls data. After all, the report wasn’t much to write home about, especially if one ponders the details. In addition, the already weak March payrolls data were revised lower […]
Economic Disinformation Keeps Financial Markets Up
Economic Disinformation Keeps Financial Markets Up Today’s payroll jobs report is more of the same. The Bureau of Labor Statistics claims that 223,000 new jobs were created in April. Let’s accept the claim and see where the jobs are. Specialty trade contractors are credited with 41,000 jobs equally split between residential and nonresidential. I believe […]
The Embarrassment of Transparency
The Embarrassment of Transparency Over the past decade or so, “transparency” has become one of the buzzwords that has guided the Federal Reserve’s culture. The word was meant to convey the belief that central banking was best done for all to see in the full light of day, not in the murky back rooms of […]
Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)
Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.) The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to […]
Sucking Spoilt Milk From A Bloated Dead Sow
Sucking Spoilt Milk From A Bloated Dead Sow With US GDP growth ‘officially’ back where it belongs, in the Arctic zone close to freezing on the surface but much worse in real life, for reasons both Albert Edwards and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (not exactly a pair of Siamese twins) remarked this week; that is, excluding the […]
We Just Broke 2008′s Record for the Fastest Economic Unraveling!
We Just Broke 2008′s Record for the Fastest Economic Unraveling! In my last piece I provided a technical analysis that signaled we are entering the first stage of a bursting bubble that we’ll call the Fed Bubble. Now while I do believe technicals provide good insight to the economic landscape I see them as a necessary rather […]
US Economic Output – “Ugly, but Fleeting”?
US Economic Output – “Ugly, but Fleeting”? On the Uselessness of Aggregate Economic Statistics We actually hate talking about GDP. It mainly measures consumption and leaves out the bulk of the economy’s production structure – which has led to the completely erroneous, but often repeated notion that “the consumer represents 70% of economic activity”. In […]
The Dwindling US Economy
The Dwindling US Economy The announcement today (April 29) of a barely positive GDP first quarter 2015 growth rate of 0.2 percent (two-tenths of one percent) is an intentional exaggeration. Today’s GDP report is the “advance estimate.” There will be two revisions, with the first occurring in one month on May 29. Although the “consensus […]
