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Puerto Rico Is Greece, & These 5 States Are Next To Go

Puerto Rico Is Greece, & These 5 States Are Next To Go

As Wilbur Ross so eloquently noted, for Puerto Rico “it’s the end of the beginning… and the beginning of the end,” as he explained “Puerto Rico is the US version of Greece.” However, as JPMorgan explains, for some states the pain is really just beginning as Municipal bond risk will only become more important over time, as assets of some severely underfunded plans are gradually depleted.

Wilbur Ross discusses Puerto Rico’s debt struggles and where it goes from here…

But, as JPMorgan details, Muni risk is on the rise for US states, but broad generalizations do not apply (in other words, these five states are ‘screwed’)…

The direct indebtedness of US states (excluding revenue bonds) is $500 billion.  However, bonds are just one part of the picture: states have another trillion in future obligations related to pension and retiree healthcare.  In the summer of 2014, we conducted a deep-dive analysis of US states, incorporating bonds, pension obligations and retiree healthcare obligations.  After reviewing over 300 Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports from different states, we pulled together an assessment of each state’s total debt service relative to its tax collections, incorporating the need to pay down underfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations.  

While there are five states with significant challenges (Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Kentucky) , the majority of states have debt service-to-revenue ratios that are more manageable. 

As a brief summary, we computed the ratio of debt, pension and retiree healthcare payments to state revenues.  The blue bars show what states are currently paying.  The orange bars show this ratio assuming that states pay what they owe on a full-accrual basis, assuming a 30-year term for amortizing unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations, and assuming a 6% return on pension plan assets.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stunning Drone Footage Of The Midwest Flooding Wreaking Havoc On US Oil

Stunning Drone Footage Of The Midwest Flooding Wreaking Havoc On US Oil

After the first deadly winter storm this season, now come the floods: the near-record water level across the U.S. Midwest has disrupted everything from oil to agriculture, forcing pipelines, terminals and grain elevators to close. This is the worst flood in the region since May 2011, when rising water on the Mississippi and its tributaries deluged cities, slowed barge traffic and threatened refinery and chemical operations and is just shy of the worst flood of breaking 30-year records.

According to Bloomberg, the floods have killed at least 20 people and shut hundreds of roads across Missouri and Illinois, according to AccuWeather Inc. Rain-swollen rivers will set records in the Mississippi River basin through much of January. Fifty miles (80 kilometers) of the Illinois River remain closed, according to the U.S. Coast Guard, as well as five miles of the Mississippi River.

Additionally, the Coast Guard issued a high-water safety advisory for 566 miles of Mississippi River between Caruthersville, Missouri, and Natchez, Mississippi. It also instituted high-water towing limitations near Morgan City, Louisiana, for vessels heading south that are 600 feet or shorter, it said in a statement.

And while water levels have started to recede in some areas, closures and restrictions remain in place for safety, said Jonathan Lally, a spokesman for the U.S. Coast Guard. “The high water is kind of moving in a big glob and it’s on its way down,” he said Friday in a telephone interview from New Orleans.

The impact of the flood has hit farmers, with hog producers in southern Illinois calling other farmers, hoping to find extra barn space to relocate pigs. Processors are sending additional trucks to retrieve market-ready pigs, she said. In one case, an overflowing creek took out electricity and made roads impassable, causing 2,000 pigs to drown.

But the flood’s most adverse economic impact may be on oil,  which may see an even greater increase in stockpiles as a result, pushing the price of oil even lower.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Will Illinois Be the First State to Go Bankrupt?

Will Illinois Be the First State to Go Bankrupt?

Illinois

The state of Illinois is in real trouble. The state employees have been bleeding the state dry and are demanding that they raise taxes so they can get theirs. This is the poster state for government employees expropriating private assets. Illinois must pay $560 million in November and they have said they will have to delay the payment to its pension funds. They will also delay payments due in December. We are on the verge of watching state bankruptcy. Once Illinois goes, others will follow to escape pension payments to former state employees.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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