Deciphering The Latest Rig Count Data
The main take-away from this week’s rig count is that everything is on track for lower U.S. oil production by mid-year. The weekly changes vary but the overall trend since October is down and that is positive for achieving a better balance between supply and demand.
Please remember the following points and read my previous post “Oil Prices Don’t Change Because of Rig Count” if you haven’t already:
• Rig count is only one indicator of future production trends.
• Week-to-week changes are not critical but trends may become important.
• Horizontal rigs are more important than vertical rigs.
• Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian basin are the most important plays for tight oil production in the U.S.
This week, the overall rig count was down 75 compared with 43 rigs last week. The horizontal rig count was down 51 compared with 33 rigs last week.
The Eagle Ford Shale play lost 9 horizontal rigs this week, the Permian lost 15 and the Bakken lost 3 rigs.
Rig Count Change Table. Source: Baker-Hughes, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
(Click to enlarge)
Related: Oil Price Crash A Blessing In Disguise For US Shale
The Bakken horizontal rig count is down 40% from its maximum in 2014. The Permian basin horizontal rig count is down 33% and the Eagle Ford is down 30%.
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