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US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update

US Crude plus Condensate and Tight Oil, Jan 2018 Update From Dec 2016 to Dec 2017 US Tight oil output has increased by 975 kb/d based on US tight oil output data from the EIA. For the entire US we only have EIA monthly output estimates through Oct 2017. Over the Dec 2016 to Oct […]

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THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive

THE U.S. SHALE OIL INDUSTRY: Swindling & Stealing Energy To Stay Alive While the U.S. Shale Energy Industry continues to borrow money to produce uneconomical oil and gas, there is another important phenomenon that is not understood by the analyst community.  The critical factor overlooked by the media is the fact that the U.S. shale […]

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Production, Rig Count Surge As Exxon Bets Big On U.S. Shale

Production, Rig Count Surge As Exxon Bets Big On U.S. Shale US oil rig counts rose for the7th straight week (up 7 to 609) to the highest level since October 2015.  With production surging back above 9mm b/d – the highest in a year – the trend in the rig count implies considerably more production to […]

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U.S. Shale Drillers Running Out Of Options, Fast

U.S. Shale Drillers Running Out Of Options, Fast Much has been made about the impressive gains in efficiency and productivity in the shale patch, as new drilling techniques squeeze ever more oil and gas out of new wells. But the limits to such an approach are becoming increasingly visible. The U.S. shale revolution is running […]

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U.S. tight oil production decline

U.S. tight oil production decline U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated.   Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. […]

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A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions

A Reality Check For U.S. Natural Gas Ambitions Something unusual happened while we were focused on the global oil-price collapse–the increase in U.S. shale gas production stalled (Figure 1). Figure 1. U.S. shale gas production. Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. (click image to enlarge) Total shale gas production for June was basically flat […]

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Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads  Freight Rail Traffic Data. Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil […]

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Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb) The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson. The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both […]

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The EIA’s Questionable Numbers

The EIA’s Questionable Numbers The EIA’s, on June 30th, published its Petroleum Supply Monthly. I Think their numbers are just way too high. I compared them with the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The chart below shows the Results. I averaged the weekly numbers and converted them to monthly data. They were pretty close for the first […]

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Natural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast

Natural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast Spending cuts for oil-directed drilling have dominated first quarter 2015 energy news but rig counts for shale gas drilling are too high. Investors should pay attention to this growing problem. Bank of America fearssub-$2 gas prices now that winter heating worries are over. Low natural gas […]

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Global Shale Revolution On Hold

Global Shale Revolution On Hold Along with the rest of the energy world, we have been closely tracking rig counts (now down 40 percent from last fall) and other data to try to determine where the oil markets are heading. This week, the Energy Information Administration reported that production is finally set to decline in […]

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Deciphering The Latest Rig Count Data

Deciphering The Latest Rig Count Data The main take-away from this week’s rig count is that everything is on track for lower U.S. oil production by mid-year. The weekly changes vary but the overall trend since October is down and that is positive for achieving a better balance between supply and demand. Please remember the […]

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OPEC Production Cut May Not Be Needed After All

OPEC Production Cut May Not Be Needed After All U.S. tight oil production may fall 600,000 barrels per day by June 2015 based on reasonable projections of current rig counts. I compared the decrease in rig counts that began in late 2014 to the rig count decrease in 2008 and 2009 following the Financial Crisis. […]

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Bakken, Let’s Do The Math

Bakken, Let’s Do The Math There has been considerable dispute over how many new wells required to keep production flat in the Bakken and Eagle Ford. One college professor posted, over on Seeking Alpha, figures that it would take 114 rigs in the Bakken and 175 in Eagle Ford to keep production flat. He bases his […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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