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Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B

Crunchtime: When Events Outrun Plan B

Not only will events outrun Plan B, they’ll also outrun Plans C and D. 

We all know what Plan B is: our pre-planned response to the emergence of risk. Plan B is for risks that can be anticipated, regular but unpredictable events such tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc. In the human sphere, risks that can be anticipated include temporary loss of a job, stock market down turns, recession, disruption of energy supplies, etc.

Hidden in most Plan B’s are a host of assumptions that all the systems running in the background of the economy will remain stable. Even if electrical and cell-phone service go down, for example, we assume the outage will be temporary. We assume delivery of energy and food will resume shortly, we assume medical care will be available somewhere nearby, roadways will soon be cleared and so on.

In other words, we assume emergencies will be short-lived and that these non-linear events will leave the rest of our social and economic orders as fully intact linear systems, that is, predictable because the outputs (results) will continue to be proportional to the inputs.

If one road crew can clear five roads of debris, then if ten roads are blocked, we reckon adding another crew will generate a proportional result: two crews will clear all ten blocked roads. This is a linear system and response.

But if for some reason the second crew can’t clear even a single road, and adding a third crew also fails to make progress, the situation becomes non-linear: increasing inputs doesn’t generate proportional outputs.

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