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Prepare for Winter
Prepare for Winter Realism must precede optimism or the optimism will collapse as the tsunami of reality comes ashore. It’s time to prepare materially and psychologically for a winter unlike any other in our lifetimes. Here’s the view from 30,000 feet: 1. The stock market and the general zeitgeist of optimism have soared based on […]
Here’s Why the Economy Won’t Recover–and No, It’s Not Covid-19 or the Lockdown
Here’s Why the Economy Won’t Recover–and No, It’s Not Covid-19 or the Lockdown When reality and truth become the sworn enemies of society’s political and economic elites, the society is well and truly doomed. The risks of Covid-19 and the lockdown have been explored across a wide spectrum of opinion. To hit just a few of […]
The Global Repricing of Assets Can’t Be Stopped
The Global Repricing of Assets Can’t Be Stopped All bubbles pop, period. The financial elites are pushing a narrative that asset prices, sales and profits will all return to January 2020 levels as soon as the Covid-19 pandemic fades. Get real, baby. Nothing is going back to January 2020 levels. Rather than the “V-shaped recovery” expected […]
Covid-19 Helicopter Money: Go Big Now or Go Home
Covid-19 Helicopter Money: Go Big Now or Go Home This is why it’s imperative to go big now, and make plans to sustain the most vulnerable households and small employers not for two weeks but for six months–or however long proves necessary. That governments around the world will be forced to distribute “helicopter money” to […]
The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent
The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent Subtract their immense debts and they have negative net worth, and therefore the market value of their stock is zero. To understand why the financial dominoes toppled by the Covid-19 pandemic lead to global insolvency, let’s start with a household example. The point of this exercise is to […]
Goodbye to All That: The Demise of Globalization and Imperial Pretensions
Goodbye to All That: The Demise of Globalization and Imperial Pretensions The decline phase of the S-Curve is just beginning. Globalization and Imperial Pretensions have been decaying for years; now the tide has turned definitively against them. The Covid-19 pandemic didn’t cause the demise of globalization and Imperial Pretensions; it merely pushed the rickety structures over the edge. […]
Could China’s Overlapping Crises Spiral Out of Control?
Could China’s Overlapping Crises Spiral Out of Control? Threats, propaganda and the Orwellian dissolution of social trust cannot stop a withdrawal from the status quo. Longtime readers know I’ve had an active interest in what differentiates empires/nations that survive crises and those that collapse. There is a lively academic literature on this topic, and it boils […]
Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles
Did Covid-19 Just Pop All the Global Financial Bubbles? Once confidence and certainty are lost, the willingness to expand debt and leverage collapses. Even though the first-order effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still impossible to predict, it’s already possible to ask: did the pandemic pop all the global financial bubbles? The reason we can ask […]
No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why
No, The Fed Will Not “Save the Market”–Here’s Why The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal. A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial netherworld that the Federal Reserve and its fellow dark lords will “save the market” from COVID-19 collapse. They won’t. I already explained why […]
When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable?
When Will We Admit Covid-19 Is Unstoppable and Global Depression Is Inevitable? Given the exquisite precariousness of the global financial system and economy, hopes for a brief and mild downturn are wildly unrealistic. If we asked a panel of epidemiologists to imagine a virus optimized for rapid spread globally and high lethality, they’d likely include […]
When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Escape Being Bagholders
When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Escape Being Bagholders Hapless bagholders have two options: buy the dip and be destroyed, or hang on hoping for a reversal and be destroyed. One often overlooked characteristic of the current stock market bubble is the extremely small exit for sellers trying to avoid becoming hapless bagholders. Bubbles always […]
Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech
Covid-19: Global Retrenchment Will Obliterate Sales, Profits and Yes, Big Tech If you think global demand will rebound as global debt and confidence implode, you better not be making consequential decisions based on Euphorestra-addled magical thinking. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy was slowing for two reasons: 1) everybody who can afford it already […]
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality
The Violent Collision of Market Fantasy and Viral Reality When the stampede tumbles off the cliff, buyers vanish and markets go bidless. The shock wave unleashed in China on January 23 is about to hit the U.S. economy and shatter everything that is fragile and fantasy, starting with the U.S. stock market. The shock wave is […]
Pandemic, Lies and Videos
Pandemic, Lies and Videos Will we wonder, what were we thinking? and marvel anew at the madness of crowds? When we look back on this moment from the vantage of history, what will we think? Will we think how obvious it was that the coronavirus deaths in China were in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds […]
Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In
Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In If we accept what is known about the virus, then logic, science and probabilities all suggest we brace for impact. Here’s a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019:1. A statistical study from highly credentialed Chinese academics […]
