Challenging (Crude) Convention | Daniel Davis.
Media reports regarding the American crude oil industry have been uniformly positive in the past few months. Oil prices have dropped to their lowest level since 2010 and along with it prices at the pump. According to some reports, the US now produces as much or more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia. As the US closes in on energy independence, our reliance on foreign suppliers dwindles. Some suggest we are nearing a time of oil and economic security not seen in decades. If only that were true.
The above rendering of events is taken, almost without examination, as gospel truth in the United States. The only subject of debate seems to be ascertaining whetherhydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) is safe for the environment of if burning the additional hydrocarbons is adding to risks of climate change. We find this near-religious belief in looming US oil “independence” to be troubling, as a considerable body of publicly available information leads to a very different conclusion.
Instead of being on the dawn of a new age of plenty, a careful analysis of all available data indicates the probability of near to mid-term trouble even maintaining current levels of production, let alone eliminating the chasm between US production and consumption.
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