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How much oil left in America? Not much

How much oil left in America? Not much

Preface. If you think we have no worries because we can get arctic oil, think again. We can’t because icebergs mow drilling platforms down in the ocean. On land, massive amounts of expensive new drilling rigs, roads, rail lines, platforms, buildings and other infrastructure need to be built, and maintained every year as permafrost soil bucks and heaves like a bronco trying to shake infrastructure off.

In the first two oil shocks in the 1970s, many intelligent people proposed we should buy oil from other nations to keep ours in the ground for when foreign oil declined. But hell no, Texas, Oklahoma, and other oil states said that we need jobs and CEO/shareholder profits more than national security. Over half of all remaining oil is in the Middle East, which China, Russia, and Europe are much closer to than the U.S.

What saved the U.S. and the world, from conventional peak oil and natural gas decline since 2005 is fracking. But fracking began to decline as early as 2020 according the first report below. The second article is about oil discoveries in the U.S. declining.

This just in: John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation, told his audience that “key U.S. shale fields are starting to plateau” and will not the next Saudi Arabia. U.S. shale oil production has been a major driver in the growth of world oil supplies. Last year the United States accounted for 98% of global growth in oil production. Since 2008 the number is 73%. so a slowdown or decline in U.S. oil production growth would mean trouble for the whole world. With 81 percent of global oil production now in decline, even a plateau in U.S. production would likely result in a worldwide decline (Kobb 2020).

Peak Fracking in the news:

2020 U.S. Shale Oil Production – All That’s Left Is The Permian And That Won’t Last Forever Either.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Saudi Arabia Caused The Worst Oil Price Crash In History

How Saudi Arabia Caused The Worst Oil Price Crash In History

  • Saudi Arabia made good on its promise to flood the market with oil after the collapse of the previous OPEC+ deal in early March.
  • The Kingdom’s oil exports jumped by 3.15 million bpd to 11.34 million bpd in April.

Saudi Arabia made good on its promise to flood the market with oil after the collapse of the previous OPEC+ deal in early March, exporting a record 10.237 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2020, up from 7.391 million bpd in March, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) showed.  

Total oil exports from Saudi Arabia, including crude oil and total oil products, also soared in April – by 3.15 million bpd to 11.34 million bpd, mostly due to the surge in crude oil exports, according to the data released by the JODI database, which collects self-reported figures from 114 countries.    

Production at the world’s top crude oil exporter also jumped in April—to over 12 million bpd, at 12.007 million bpd, the database showed.

After flooding the market with oil in April and contributing to the oil price crash, OPEC’s de facto leader and largest producer, Saudi Arabia, agreed that same month to a new round of OPEC+ cuts in response to the demand crash and plunging oil prices. Saudi Arabia had to reduce its oil production to 8.5 million bpd in May and June under the OPEC+ deal for removing 9.7 million bpd of collective oil production from the market. 

According to OPEC’s secondary sources in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Saudi Arabia slashed its crude oil production in May to the required level of 8.5 million bpd.  

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Most Dramatic Year In The History Of Oil

The Most Dramatic Year In The History Of Oil

There are very few industries in the world that have been hit as hard or are set to face as many consequences as the oil and gas industry in 2020. In a recent report, Fitch Ratings forecast that oil and gas exploration and production companies would lose $1.8 trillion in revenues this year, which is six times more than the retail sector is set to lose. But the long-term consequences are going to be even more devastating. Perhaps the most visible change taking place in the oil and gas industry is the drastic cost-cutting measures being taken by the oil majors. BP has been forced to cut 10,000 jobs, or 15 percent of its workforce, as it tries to control costs in this new low oil price environment. Schlumberger had already slashed salaries and cut jobs in late March, while Shell and Chevron have announced plans to shrink their workforces.

And it isn’t just in the workforce where we are seeing unprecedented cuts. Shell’s decision to cut its dividend for the first time since 1945 was probably the single largest indicator of the long-term impact this pandemic will have on the oil industry. Shell and its fellow oil majors have prided themselves on paying out dividends regardless of market conditions in order to keep their shareholders happy. Its decision to cut its dividends marks a shift in strategy that suggests the oil major is now determined to cut its debt going forward and focus on financial sustainability rather than just pleasing shareholders.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit

Oil Market Heading For Months Of Deficit

The oil market is set for a deficit from August onwards, even after OPEC+ eases the current cuts that are up for a tentative extension through July, Rystad Energy analysts said on Friday.

Assuming that global demand recovery continues in the coming months, the oil market will still be in deficit even after the OPEC+ group relaxes the current cuts from 9.7 million bpd to 7.7 million bpd, as currently planned, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, said, as carried by Oilfield Technology.

“That will ensure a fundamental support for prices, while also spurring a quicker reactivation of curtailed US oil production, and eventually frac crews ending their holidays early,” Tonhaugen said in a note.

“Indications show that a bit more than 300 000 bpd from shut US production is actually coming back online already from June as a result of the current price levels,” he said.

Some U.S. producers have already restarted some curtailed production as prices have rallied in recent weeks and as they need the cash from operations, regardless of how little.

The market deficit coming this summer, however, doesn’t mean that there will be a global oil supply crunch, because inventories and floating storage have yet to begin depleting.

“So, even if demand exceeds supply for a while, that does not mean that we really have a problem to source oil. Oil is there, lots of it, waiting to be drawn from storage facilities,” Rystad Energy’s Tonhaugen said.

Improving global oil demand and faster-than-expected production curtailments from outside the OPEC+ pact are set to push the oil market into deficit in June, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet, there is little room for an oil price rally in the near term because of the still sizeable oversupply of crude oil and refined products, Goldman Sachs said in a note in the middle of May.

Earlier this week, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he expected a shortage in the oil market in July.

Is EIA Data Disguising A Disastrous Decline In U.S. Shale?

Is EIA Data Disguising A Disastrous Decline In U.S. Shale?

The Trump administration claims that the U.S. is “transitioning to greatness,” and that energy companies are going to see “massive gains.” U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette says there is “stability” in the oil market, and that economic activity will “explode” on the other side of the pandemic.


Dan Brouillette✔@SecBrouillette

Thanks to the leadership of President @realDonaldTrump, the transition to greatness is well underway, and our economy along with our U.S. energy companies are going to see massive gains on the other side of this pandemic.

Embedded video

Meanwhile, back in reality, U.S. oil production continues to decline as drillers shut in wells and cut back spending. Output has already declined by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), and more losses are likely. New data from Rystad Energy predicts U.S. oil production declines of roughly 2 mb/d by the end of June.

“Actual production cuts are probably larger and occur not only as a result of shut-ins, but also due to a natural decline from existing wells when new wells and drilling decline,” Rystad said in a statement.

Energy expert Philip Verleger, in an article for Energy Intelligence reports that the magnitude of output declines is much larger. His latest research shows that production as of May 10 is down by almost 4 million bpd from its peak as the below chart shows.

Source: PK Verleger LLC

To be sure, the U.S. government is doing quite a bit to try to bailout the oil industry. A new report finds that some 90 oil and gas companies will benefit from the Federal Reserve’s corporate bond buying program. The Trump administration is also quietly reversing environmental protections on the oil and gas industry.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Has Demand For Oil Already Peaked?

Has Demand For Oil Already Peaked?

Oil prices continue to rise on the prospect of a rebound in fuel demand as economies begin to reopen.  But there is a large difference between oil demand rising from recent lows and actually growing relative to pre-COVID-19 trends. In other words, demand destruction on the order of nearly 30 million barrels per day (mb/d) may have been brief, but we are a long way from a 100-mb/d oil market. 

In fact, some are wondering whether the world will ever get back to 100 mb/d of oil demand. Even oil executives have their doubts. Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden recently suggested that a rebound is unlikely, even looking out beyond 2020. “We do not expect a recovery of oil prices or demand for our products in the medium term,” he said.

“We basically have a crisis of uncertainty. Uncertainty about demand, about prices,” van Beurden said in a video address when presenting first quarter results at the end of April. “Maybe even uncertainty about the viability of some of our assets given all of the logistical issues we have.”

BP’s CEO Bernard Looney largely admitted the same thing. The COVID-19 pandemic could entrench certain societal changes – more teleworking, less commuting, less flying – that could permanently erode a portion of consumption. “It’s not going to make oil more in demand. It’s gotten more likely [oil will] be less in demand,” Looney said in an interview with the FT

“I don’t think we know how this is going to play out. I certainly don’t know,” Looney said. “Could it be peak oil? Possibly. Possibly. I would not write that off.”

Not everyone agrees. ExxonMobil’s chief executive Darren Woods recently said that the long-term trends “have not changed.” 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Will covid-19 delay peak oil?

Will covid-19 delay peak oil?

With global demand having fallen by about 29 million barrels per day from a year ago, it seems like this pandemic might delay peak oil production while the pandemic and consequent depression lasts, since so much less oil is being consumed. Since storage is getting full, many oil producers are being forced to shut down wells, since there’s nowhere to put the oil or demand for it.

Shut down wells may produce less oil after being restarted

Shutting in wells can reduce oil production when restarted, but that doesn’t happen every time.  Sometimes you get lucky.  More often though, the sub-surface gremlins in the reservoirs are going to get you.  The net effect will likely be less oil and gas than there was before.

With prices so low and storage so full, some producers are shutting down wells. But the problem with that is it can have long term consequences, damaging the reservoir so that in the future not all of the oil can be produced (Brower 2020).

In addition to reservoir problems, especially tar sands, conventional and other wells face restart issues with the pipes, valves, separators, pumps, pipelines, older wells, and so many other technical problems that at least about 10-20% plus a loss of ability to reopen marginal projects.  Depending how the game is played by the industry, the damage can be twice that, easily, especially in offshore and ultra-deep offshore wells, where methane hydrates will form immediately in seafloor pipelines and plug them. These wells could be 100 times more difficult to restart than a shale well (Patzek 2020).

Operations in the Gulf of Mexico will likely shut last, since the miles of pipelines that carry the oil along the sea floor to processing facilities on shore can clog if shut off for too long.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Wave Of Shale Well Closures Has Finally Begun

The Wave Of Shale Well Closures Has Finally Begun

Oil well

U.S. shale oil producers have so far held up admirably, hanging on for dear life amidst the biggest oil demand collapse in history. American producers continued to pump at record highs in March, even after dozens of drillers laid out blueprints to limit production. 

But with U.S. storage about to hit tank tops in a matter of weeks and the world deep in the throes of the biggest pandemic in modern history, the inevitable has begun to unfold: The arduous and costly process of well shut-ins.

Oil production in the country tumbled sharply to 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April, a good 900,000 bpd less than the record peak of 13.1 million bpd recorded just a month prior. That’s a 7% production cut in the space of only a few weeks and the lowest level since July.

A lot more could be on the way.

More Production Cuts

Oklahoma-based Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR), the company controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, has ceased all its shale operations in North Dakota and shut in most wells in its Bakken oil field totaling roughly 200,000 bpd. 

The company, though, has refused to sell its contracted oil to pipelines at negative prices by declaring force majeure.

Continental has defended its stance by pointing out that the coronavirus outbreak has “…brought about conditions under which force majeure applies” while adding that selling its oil at negative prices constitutes waste.

Continental made the risky gamble of betting that economic growth would lift prices and, therefore, left itself heavily exposed to low oil prices by failing to employ the industry’s usual playbook of hedging future production with derivatives.

Continental is in good company, though.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Price Crash Was Inevitable

Oil Price Crash Was Inevitable

The oil price crash was inevitable. 

To understand why we have to review a bit of history.

In 2013, I began warning of the risk to oil prices due to the ongoing imbalances between global supply and demand. Those warnings fell on deaf ears.

Nobody wanted to pay much attention to the fundamentals at a time when near-zero interest rates were pushing banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms, to chase the “yield” in the energy space. Naturally, with money flooding into the system, companies were forced to drill economically unproductive wells to meet investor demands, which drove supplies higher.

Disclaimer

This week’s #MacroView is a broader commentary on the more general issues of the oil market. However, given this backdrop of what oil prices will likely remain suppressed far longer than most currently imagine, some opportunities exist in the energy space.

We recently added positions in Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and the SPDR Energy ETF (XLE) to our portfolios. We believed the companies offered significant value before the crisis, and offer even more due to the sell-off in oil.

Based on our discounted cash flow model for XOM and CVX, we think both companies are 25% undervalued. The model assumes very conservative earnings projections for the next three years and a low EPS growth rate after that. In addition to trading at a steep discount, we think their strong balance sheets put these companies in a prime position to purchase sharply discounted energy assets in the months ahead.

These stocks, and the sector, will be volatile for a while, but we intend to add to these positions in the future and potentially hold them for a long time.

Now, for the rest of the story.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

WTI Crashes To 19 Year Low As Trading Reopens; S&P Futures Slide

WTI Crashes To 19 Year Low As Trading Reopens; S&P Futures Slide

After a relatively drama-free weekend, futures have started off the new week lower by about 0.4%, trading at 2850, down 20 points from Friday’s CTA inspired and momentum-driven meltup which appears to be reversing as algos realize they have frontrun a rebound in not just 2021 earnings but also 2022 and 2023.

However, just like last week, it is commodities and specifically oil where the deflationary puke is taking place, with WTI tumbling over 5% at the open, and sliding to $17.30, down more than $10 from last Monday’s post OPEC+ kneejerk reaction higher and the lowest price since November 2001,

The ongoing crash in oil which OPEC+’s agreement to cut 9.7mmb/d in output last weekend has failed to halt, takes place as Crude prices in the US oil capital are getting dangerously close to zero. According to Bloomberg buyers bidding for crude in landlocked sections of Texas, ground zero of the shale revolution, are offering as little as $2 a barrel for some oil streams, a precipitous markdown from a month ago. And, as discussed here on various occasions, the plunging value of physical barrels is raising the possibility that Texas producers may soon have to pay customers to take crude off their hands.

Negative prices already hit more obscure corners of the North American oil market amid a bearish trifecta of collapsing demand, swelling supplies and limited storage capacity. AS we reported at the end of March, the first U.S. grade to bid under zero was a small landlocked crude stream known as Wyoming Asphalt Sour, which went for negative 19 cents a barrel last month.

Meanwhile, in Texas prices are heading in that direction. A subsidiary of Plains All American Pipeline bid just $2 a barrel for South Texas Sour on Friday, while Enterprise Products Partners LP offered $4.12 for Upper Texas Gulf Coast crude this week, according to Bloomberg.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

For Oil and Its Dependents, It’s Code Blue

For Oil and Its Dependents, It’s Code Blue

The great price collapse of 2020 will topple companies and transform states.

Oil drop
Failing vital signs: Economists predict a depression after the pandemic. That will mean less energy spending, which translates into ongoing low energy prices that already no longer cover the cost of extraction in many places. Illustration for The Tyee by Christopher Cheung. Oil rig image: Creative Commons.

If oil has been laid low by the coronavirus, then the nations whose economies most depend on it might soon be on ventilators. By any prognosis the great oil price collapse of 2020 has pushed the world’s most volatile commodity into Code Blue.

No one expects oil, its peddlers or consumers to emerge wealthier or wiser from this crisis. Oil company bankruptcies, already happening before the pandemic, will escalate. And more petro states will begin to stumble, like Venezuela, down the rabbit hole of collapse. 

The pandemic, combined with suicidal overproduction and a brief price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, has reduced oil consumption and revenues on a scale that is mindboggling. 

Prior to the pandemic, the world gulped about 100 million barrels a day, filling the atmosphere with destabilizing carbon. Today it sips somewhere between 65 million and 80 million barrels.

At least 20 to 30 per cent of global demand has vanished and nearly two dozen petro-producing countries including Canada have agreed to withhold nearly 10 million barrels from the market. Few expect this agreement will stop the price bleeding.

In fact, the price of Western Canadian Select or diluted bitumen remains below five dollars a barrel — cheaper than hand sanitizer. That’s a drop of more than 80 per cent compared to the month before.

Because the spending of oil fertilizes economic growth and expands national GDPs, most of the world’s economists now predict a long depression after the pandemic.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Canadian Oil Sands Per Barrel At $4.47, Now Cheaper Than 12-Pack Coke, $5.08

Canadian Oil Sands Per Barrel At $4.47, Now Cheaper Than 12-Pack Coke, $5.08

The collapse of global oil demand has impacted the price of Canadian Oil Sands to such a degree, the price of a barrel is now cheaper than a 12-pack of Coke purchased at Walmart. According to oilprice.com, the current price of a barrel of Western Canadian Select (oil sands) is $4.47 versus a 12-pack of Coke at Walmart for $5.08.

What a deal… ah?  Now, let’s do a simple comparison of the ENERGY CONTENT in a barrel of Canadian Oil Sands vs. a 12-pack of Coke.  A barrel of oil equivalent contains 1.4 billion calories of energy.  A typical 12 oz Coke can contains 140 calories.  If we multiply it by 12, we have 1,680 calories in a 12-pack of Coke.

Doing some simple math:

Barrel Of Oil Equivalent (1,400,000,000 calories) / 12-Pack Coke (1,680 calories) =  833,333.

Thus, a barrel of Canadian Oil Sands, which contains 833,333 times the energy calories than a 12-pack of Coke, is now worth $4.47 compared to $5.08 for the 12-pack of Coke.  Again… what a deal, ah??

I just wanted to post this simple comparison to show how much the Global Oil Industry is being gutted.  If OPEC, Russia, and the United States do not come up with “MEANINGFUL CUTS,” then we could see Western Canadian Select trading for $1 a barrel or less.

As for RESTARTING the U.S. and Global Economy after an extended shutdown, I have my doubts, as so does Gail Tverberg at her blog, OurFiniteWorld.com.  Check out her most recent article; Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns.

COMING NEW VIDEO: I am finishing putting together the charts for my next video on why the GOLD & SILVER PRICES will explode due to the collapse of the Global Financial Ponzi Scheme.

US January Production Drops Again

US January Production Drops Again

Preparing this March post has been a surrealistic exercise. Here I am providing a January US production update when at a time, January, the world had no clue that it was going to be hit with a double Black Swan event in early March . There was a hint in January on the coming pandemic for those who were listening. However, there was no clue of the Shock and Awe attack that would be launched by SA after Putin and his Oily Oligarch friend Sechin made the wrong move in the world’s Oil Chess Game. Russia thought that they had SA in Check, instead Russia and the rest of world were End Played. Now, a way must be found out of this mess. Reports are circulating that Trump and Putin have been talking and that an OPEC + meeting will be convened shortly. Let’s hope adult’s come to the table.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the world will need lower oil prices to come out of the current economic slowdown. The question is, if an agreement can be brokered between US, Russia and OPEC, “What will be the right price for oil for both the producers and the economy?

The irony here is that Trump will be holding meetings with oil company executives shortly to see how the US can help. In the meantime the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) bill keeps circulating within Congress. Interesting how the world, US positions and thinking, can be flipped upside down over night. 

All of the oil production data for the US states comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply Monthly. At the end, an analysis of a three different EIA reports is provided.

The charts below are updated to January 2020 for the 10 largest US oil producing states (Production > 100 kb/d).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Tumbles After IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast

Oil Tumbles After IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast

As if oil prices needed any more help on their downward spiral towards the teens, The IMF just slashed global growth to the worst since the ’30s.

“This crisis is like no other,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report.

“Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.”

As Bloomberg notes, The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns.

In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.

That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.

Of course, there is the hockey-stick recovery with IMF anticipating growth of 5.8% next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to 1980, it cautioned risks lay to the downside. 

The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago (on Feb. 19, the fund told Group of 20 finance chiefs that “global growth appears to be bottoming out.”)… and now…

“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Singapore Oil Trading Giant On Verge Of Collapse After Banks Freeze Credit Lines

Singapore Oil Trading Giant On Verge Of Collapse After Banks Freeze Credit Lines

Back in the second half of 2015, shortly after Saudi Arabia unleashed the (first) OPEC disintegration by flooding the market with oil in hopes of killing US shale (so deja vu… only back then it took it about two years for it to realize its low production costs are no match for the US junk bond market) and when China’s economy briefly collapsed forcing Beijing to devalue its currency and trigger a violent plunge in commodity prices around the globe (so deja vu… only back then the Shanghai Accord of Jan 2016 restored order to the world), traders were looking for ways to short the chaos and one of the favorite trades was to bet on the collapse of commodity merchants such as Glencore, Vitol, Trafigura and Mercuria, whose fates were closely interwoven with the prices of the commodities they traded. As a result, Glencore’s stock price plunged and its CDS soared amid fears the commodity crash cascade would lead to a default wave among anyone with commodity exposure.

Fast forward 5 years when the biggest commodity crash in generations, one which has sent the price of oil tumbling to levels not seen since George H.W. Bush was invading Middle Eastern nations, and… nothing: while the Glencores of the world have indeed dropped, their valuations are nowhere near the late 2015 lows even as the prices of several key commodities have rarely been lower.

That might be changing, however, because the longer global economic activity fails to rebound and the longer commodity prices remain at their current depressed levels, the more the global liquidity crisis will transform into a solvency crisis, hitting some of the most prominent commodity traders in the world… such as Singapore’s iconic oil trader Hin Leong Trading, which according to Bloomberg has appointed advisers to help in talks with banks as some of them freeze credit lines to the firm.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
In progress...

Olduvai II: Exodus
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