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The Bulletin: September 6-12

The Bulletin: September 6-12

We really need a plan

Signs of Collapse: Broken Things | how to save the world

Lockheed Martin Develops System to Identify and Counter Online “Disinformation,” Prototyped by DARPA

The Seneca Cliff of Petroleum Production – by Ugo Bardi

Is the World Walking Blindfolded Toward a Nuclear War? – Global Research

Was 911 a False Flag?

From the Archives: Martin Armstrong (Correctly) Predicts Chaos

The Blair Witch Project: Former Prime Minister Calls for Global Censorship – JONATHAN TURLEY

The Looming Shift: Oil Markets Signal a Structural Phase-Change | Art Berman

A Short History of Progress | how to save the world

Matt Taibbi: Why Censorship Is Suddenly Fashionable

The Continuing Lies and Crimes. 9.11 X Twenty-Three = Speechlessness – Global Research

17 Signs of Collapse

Crude oil extraction may be well past peak

The Sun Is Doing Something That It Is Not Supposed To Do, And That Could Mean Big Trouble In The Months Ahead

Houthi Rebels Hit Norwegian-Flagged Tanker With Anti-Ship Cruise Missile At Key Maritime Chokepoint

Houthi Rebels Hit Norwegian-Flagged Tanker With Anti-Ship Cruise Missile At Key Maritime Chokepoint

An anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck a Norwegian-flagged tanker in the Red Sea near a key maritime chokepoint known as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where nearly 10% of all crude traded at sea passes through.

Reuters quoted Houthi military spokesperson Yehia Sarea, who said the tanker – named “Strinda” – was targeted because it was headed to an Israeli terminal, and the crew ignored all warnings.

However, Strinda’s owner, Norway’s Mowinckel Chemical Tankers, said the vessel was bound for the Suez Canal and then on to Italy with a cargo containing vegetable oil and biofuels.

A US official told Reuters that the attack occurred about 60 nautical miles north of Bab al-Mandab Strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden around 2100 GMT. After the attack, another official said the tanker could move under its own power.

According to the US military’s Central Command, which supervises US forces in the Middle East, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Mason received a distress call from Strinda and was able to respond:

“There were no US ships in the vicinity at the time of the attack, but the (US Navy destroyer) USS MASON responded to the M/T STRINDA’s mayday call and is currently rendering assistance.” 

The Iran-backed militant group has carried out a series of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea (read: here & here). They are specifically targeting any vessel they believe is going to or coming from Israel.

Bloomberg cited sources who said the US and Gulf allies have been discussing potential military action against the militant group for the latest spate of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

As for energy markets, Brent crude futures briefly traded above $76 a barrel after Central Command posted on X about the incident on Monday night. Yet Brent gave up all gains and slid back to the $75 handle early Tuesday. Global crude markets are gripped with oversupply fears.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Harsh Truth: We’re Using More Oil Than Ever

In this age of climate crisis, the world is consuming more crude than ever. Peak oil demand? Not yet. Maybe one day, perhaps even soon, around 2030. For now, however, the global economy still runs on oil.

It will take a while before governments certify it, but every piece of data points in the very same direction: In the past few weeks, global oil demand has surpassed the monthly peak set in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.Expressed in barrels a day, the fresh record high in global oil consumption totals about 102.5 million, likely hit in the last few weeks in July and above the 102.3 million of August 2019. Picture this: We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day. More than a third of those swimming pools would be needed to quench the thirst of two countries: the US and China.

It’s not unexpected.  The International Energy Agency, which compiles benchmark supply and demand statistics, has anticipated it for months. It was just a question of timing, since oil demand surges during the northern hemisphere summer, when millions of European and American families guzzle gasoline and jet fuel during their holidays. The wholesale cost of refined products, such as gasoline, is surging too.

Granted, the new demand milestone is just one flimsy data point. Global oil consumption statistics are routinely revised, and a final figure probably won’t be set in stone until next year, or even 2025. The margin of error is relatively wide, too, probably at least 1 million barrels a day. But experience indicates that demand is typically revised higher, rather than lower.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Oil Can Push Higher As Cushing Stockpiles Collapse

Oil Can Push Higher As Cushing Stockpiles Collapse

Crude prices will likely get a fresh boost this week, as stockpiles at the key US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, risk collapsing to the lowest level (aka “tank-bottoms”) in almost a decade.

Such a move would embolden those aiming for a return of $100 oil by year-end.

Cushing storage tanks

Cushing matters. Being the delivery point for the WTI futures contract, the rise and fall of the holdings is among the market’s most closely followed trends. So far in 3Q, inventories have slumped by ~47% to 22.9m barrels. That’s the lowest since July 2022 and that’s not far away from the 2014 lows.

If that comes to pass, it’d highlight the scramble for near-term supplies as the global market tightens up.

Estimates come on Tuesday, followed by the official print the next day.

China Snaps Up Record-High Volumes Of Russian Crude In The First Half Of 2023

China Snaps Up Record-High Volumes Of Russian Crude In The First Half Of 2023

  • In the first half of 2023, China imported 2.13 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil, making Russia its single biggest supplier.
  • In June, China once again imported record-breaking levels of Russian crude, a 44% increase compared to the same month in 2022.
  • Total Chinese oil imports are also soaring, with the country importing the second-highest monthly import figure on record in June.
Crude

Despite an apparent weakness in its economy, China is importing record volumes of oil and is buying record amounts of Russian crude to add to stockpiles.

During the first half of 2023, Chinese imports of Russian crude oil averaged 2.13 million barrels per day (bpd), which helped Russia oust its OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia from the top spot as the single biggest supplier to the world’s top crude importer so far this year, per Financial Times estimates based on Chinese customs data. Imports from the world’s top crude oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, averaged 1.88 million bpd between January and June, according to FT’s calculations.

In June alone, China broke – for yet another month – the record for importing Russian crude oil, per data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters. Chinese imports from Russia averaged 2.56 million bpd last month, a surge of 44% compared to the same month in 2022, the Chinese customs data showed.

The previous record, of 2.29 million bpd, was set in May as Chinese refiners continued to buy discounted Russian oil. The discounts for Russia’s crude narrowed relative to the benchmarks in June, but this didn’t stop China from boosting imports and breaking in June the record from May.

China’s imports from Saudi Arabia also rose in June, compared to May and June last year. But at 1.93 million bpd in June 2023, those imports still trailed behind the record-breaking Chinese crude oil imports from Russia.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Crude oil could hit $125 a barrel as Russia’s reaction to a US-led price cap threatens to squeeze supply, UBS says

Crude oil could hit $125 a barrel as Russia’s reaction to a US-led price cap threatens to squeeze supply, UBS says

US oil tanker
Oil prices are ticking upwards again after falling for the past three to four months. 
George Frey/Getty Images
  • UBS expects oil will hit $125 a barrel if Russia reacts to a planned G7 oil price cap as promised.
  • Russia has said it will cut its exports if the US-led cap comes in, which would tighten crude supply.
  • “As we get further draws, you’re going to see prices going up. That simple,” Dominic Schnider told CNBC.

Crude oil could hit $125 a barrel as Russia’s response to a US-led price cap plan threatens to tighten the global market even further, a top UBS commodities strategist has said.

Moscow has said it’s prepared to cut its oil output if the G7 nations carry through with the price cap, warning the measure will end up primarily hurting those behind the plan.

Dominic Schnider, head of commodities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that could pull another 1 million barrels a day at a time when the oil market is already facing a supply squeeze from the OPEC+ decision to slash its production targets.

“The Russians were clear: ‘If you force us to accept the price cap, we’re simply not going to deliver crude to you,” Schnider said in a Tuesday interview with CNBC,

“And so I think that kind of situation means, maybe, from a global supply perspective, there’s an additional 1 million barrels at risk here.

“As we get further draws, you’re going to see prices going up. That simple. And we’re looking at $110-$125, that’s for us our point of gravity when it comes to crude oil,” he added.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bankrupt Sri Lanka Takes Russian Crude As Fuel Crisis Depletes Stocks, Mulls Loan From China

Bankrupt Sri Lanka Takes Russian Crude As Fuel Crisis Depletes Stocks, Mulls Loan From China

A foreign exchange shortage has resulted in the worst financial crisis Sri Lanka has ever endured, with shortages of everything from food to crude. Fuel supplies are down to just days, food has run out at supermarkets, and social-economic chaos has unfolded across the island country in South Asia.

However, there’s short-term hope, and somehow the bankrupt country found enough money to pay for a shipment of Russian crude.

Bloomberg said Ceylon Petroleum Corp., the country’s only refinery, is set to take shipment of Russian grade Siberian Light on May 28. It will be the first time the refinery has processed crude to produce high-value products such as gasoline and diesel in two months.

Fuel supplies on the island nation are so low that the government has told citizens to stop waiting in long lines at filling stations. The government has run out of foreign reserves to pay for essential imports.

Last week, newly-appointed prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, said his government needed $75 million for critical imports such as crude.

“At the moment, we only have petrol stocks for a single day. The next couple of months will be the most difficult ones of our lives.

“We must prepare ourselves to make some sacrifices and face the challenges of this period,” Wickremesinghe said. 

Ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows the Nissos Delos tanker carrying Siberian Light has moved towards a mooring point where it can begin discharge operations. The vessel loaded up on March 29 at Novorossiysk, a port city on the Black Sea in southern Russia.

Bloomberg wasn’t exactly sure how Sri Lanka paid for the Russian crude, considering it owes more than $50bn in overseas debt. It’s seeking a $4bn loan from the IMF and has asked China to renegotiate at least $3.5bn in debt.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records, But Don’t Blame Crude Oil

Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records, But Don’t Blame Crude Oil

Predictions a few weeks ago of peak gasoline prices have been obviated by the inflationary mindset.

The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump spiked to a record $4.33 per gallon on Monday, May 9, the third week in a row of increases, and was up 46% from a year ago, edging past the prior record of Monday, March 14 ($4.32), according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day.

Gasoline price increases slap consumers directly in the face every time they get gas, and the classic ways of hiding price increases – such as making gallons smaller (shrinkflation) – would be illegal.

Adjusted for CPI inflation, it’s still not a record. In July 2008, gasoline at $4.11 would amount to $5.37 a gallon in today’s dollars. Long way to go, baby.

Back then, demand destruction rippling out of the Financial Crisis and the Great Recession toppled the price spike. We’re not there yet either – but the Fed has started to work on it.

Gasoline futures have been breath-takingly volatile since February, with huge spikes and drops, that led to a new record on Friday, but on Monday, they fell from that record (chart via Investing.com):

The average retail price of No. 2 highway diesel spiked to a record $5.62 a gallon at the pump on Monday, the EIA reported late Monday. Year-over-year, the price of diesel has spiked by 76%!

Adjusted for CPI inflation, that spike in diesel prices is still not a record. In July 2008, diesel peaked at $4.76 a gallon, which would be $6.22 in today’s dollars. Long way to go, baby.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude Oil WTI Futures Go Bananas, Briefly Spike to $130: And this Is What’s Happening at my Gas Station

Crude Oil WTI Futures Go Bananas, Briefly Spike to $130: And this Is What’s Happening at my Gas Station

Speculators are reacting to other speculators who are reacting to whatever.

Sunday night, crude oil WTI futures, as soon as trading started, spiked to $130.50 a barrel, the highest since July 2008. Maybe it was just one contract someone traded to get it over with and nail that number. But this came after discussions in Washington whether or not the US should ban the imports of Russian crude oil. After the crazy open, the price of WTI futures fell, eventually to $123 a barrel, still the highest since July 2008. And then they started rising again. Currently, WTI trades for around $126, also the highest since July 2008.

The reason the price spiked isn’t because the US is suddenly running out of crude oil or anything, but because traders and algos smelled an opportunity and jumped on it, and drove up the price of those futures, and it’s pure speculation, but that’s what futures trading always is.

The US doesn’t import much Russian crude and could do just fine without Russian crude – and that’s why the import ban is even proposed. And if some buyers in the US actually buy Russian crude, it’s simply another trade, like a gazillion others, but Russian crude is a big part of the gigantic complex global oil trade.

For example, California is cut off from other US producing regions because there’s no pipeline across the Rockies. It produces some of its own crude oil and imports some crude oil from Alaska, and imports crude from the rest of the world. The local refineries, such as those in the Bay Area, buy this imported crude and refine it and export large quantities of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to Latin America, which is a huge profitable business.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Set To Release Crude From Strategic Reserve In Early February

China Set To Release Crude From Strategic Reserve In Early February

  • China has agreed with the United States to release crude from its SPR around the Lunar New Year holiday on February 1
  • The volume of the release may depend on actual crude prices

China has agreed with the United States to release crude from its strategic reserves around the Lunar New Year holiday on February 1, as part of the broader U.S.-led effort for strategic releases to bring oil prices down, sources with knowledge of the talks told Reuters on Friday.

“China agreed to release a relatively bigger amount if oil is above $85 a barrel, and a smaller volume if oil stays near the $75 level,” one of the sources told Reuters, without offering additional details about the amount to be released.

China will be celebrating the Lunar New Year with an official holiday between January 31 and February 6, and the crude oil release is set to take place around that time, Reuters’ sources said.

U.S. President Joe Biden said at the end of November that the Department of Energy would release 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in a bid to lower high gasoline prices in a coordinated effort with other major oil-consuming nations. The SPR release from the United States will be carried out in parallel with other major energy-consuming nations, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, the White House said at the time.

A day later, China said that the volume of the expected Chinese release of crude from its state reserves would be decided according to the country’s actual needs, and declined to comment if it would be releasing crude in the coordinated effort led by the United States.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Putin: $100 Oil Is “Quite Possible”

Putin: $100 Oil Is “Quite Possible”

  • It is “quite possible” that the WTI Crude oil prices reach $100 per barrel in light of growing global demand for energy commodities, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday
  • Putin: Russia and its allies in the OPEC+ oil producer group want a stable oil market without any shock spikes in prices

It is “quite possible” that the WTI Crude oil prices reach $100 per barrel in light of growing global demand for energy commodities, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on a CNBC panel at the Russian Energy Week on Wednesday.

Asked by CNBC’s Hadley Gamble whether the U.S. benchmark could hit $100 a barrel, Putin replied “That is quite possible.”

However, Russia and its allies in the OPEC+ oil producer group want a stable oil market without any shock spikes in prices, Putin said.

“Russia and our partners and OPEC + group, I would say we are doing everything possible to make sure the oil market stabilizes,” Putin said, according to a translation.

“We are trying not to allow any shock peaks in prices. We certainly do not want to have that — it is not in our interests,” the Russian president added.

The OPEC+ group decided last week to stick to their planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in collective production in November, despite calls from oil importing nations to add more supply and despite an expected additional demand from a gas-to-oil switch due to record high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.

Oil prices could hit $100 in case of a colder winter, some analysts and investment banks have said in recent weeks. Record-high natural gas prices are forcing some utilities to switch to oil derivatives instead, boosting demand for crude.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Crude oil prices will go the way of ‘whale oil’ as demand has peaked, says ARK’s Cathie Wood 

Crude oil prices will go the way of ‘whale oil’ as demand has peaked, says ARK’s Cathie Wood

Rising crude oil prices are a factor of supply rather than demand, she says

An old building of a British shipping base, which was consumed by a mudslide sparked by a volcano, crumbles at Whalers Bay in Deception Island, in the western Antarctica peninsula on March 06, 2016. In 1912 the Hektor Whaling Company was issued with a license to establish a shore-based whaling station. Approximately 150 people worked at the station during the austral summer, producing over 140,000 barrels of whale oil.

AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Much like the whale oil trade at its peak in the mid 1800s, crude oil prices have probably topped.

That’s according to Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Investment Management, who spoke of a coming peak in crude oil prices due to the arrival of electric vehicles (EV), in a series of tweets late Thursday.

Citing U.S. Energy Information Administration data, the investment manager said global oil demand peaked at 101 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2019, dropped to 92 mbd during the coronavirus in 2020, and has since rebounded to 97 mbd in 2021. “Based on our forecast for EV sales, @ARKInvest believes that oil demand has peaked,” Wood said.

ARK has predicted that EV sales will rise roughly 20-fold from around 2.2 million in 2020 to 40 million units in 2025, and industry heavyweight Tesla TSLA, 1.54% is the biggest holding in the flagship ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund ARKK, 1.04%. She also pointed to pension funds who are demanding oil companies reduce capital spending while Wall Street banks are denying them money for fracking, as OPEC is “holding the line on supply”.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How will 500,000 products made with fossils as feedstock & process energy be created post fossil fuels?

How will 500,000 products made with fossils as feedstock & process energy be created post fossil fuels?

Preface. It is quite likely that after fossils are gone, plastics will no longer be made, since they are incredibly complex – PhDs in numerous fields make them possible – and most kinds have been around for only 50 years or less. Thwaites (2011) showed how hard replicating a complex process that we take for granted would be by performing a simple exercise:  He tried to make an ordinary toaster from scratch. Even the simplest toaster had 404 parts of plastic, steel, mica, copper, and nickel. After a great deal of struggle, he was able to make the metal pieces, which mankind has made since the Iron Age. But plastics were beyond him. He’d have had to refine crude oil to make propylene, which takes at least six chemical transformations to make into the simplest plastic, polyethylene.

Crude oil is the feedstock for half a million products. What follows is a description of how plastic is made. My book “Life After Fossil Fuels” discusses plastic in more depth — how much biomass is needed, how to replace asphalt and lubricants, and recycling.

***

We consume about ONE BILLION TONS of products a year. We live like kings. Of all the fossil fuels we use in a year, about seven percent – 500 million metric tons of oil equivalent, the weight of all the people on earth – is used as both feedstock and energy to make these one billion tons of products (IEA 2018).  Mostly its oil for high-value chemicals. Natural gas and coal are used to make ammonia and methanol, but difficult to turn into other products because they require multiple energy-intensive steps (IEA 2018, KAUST 2020).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

One Of Wall Street’s Biggest Oil Bears Sees Higher Crude Prices On The Horizon

One Of Wall Street’s Biggest Oil Bears Sees Higher Crude Prices On The Horizon

  • Standard Chartered Global Research has maintained its somewhat bearish oil price outlook during the last couple of months, but last week, the investment bank suddenly turned bullish
  • Standard Chartered raised its 2021 average Brent price forecast by USD 6/bbl to USD 71/bbl, and its 2022 forecast by USD 8/bbl to USD 67/bbl

There has been a major dichotomy on Wall Street regarding the oil price trajectory, with some viewing the massive oil and gas rally as being temporary and transitory while the bulls have been saying this rally still has legs to run.

Standard Chartered Global Research has been providing regular commodities updates, and made waves in August when they declared that a Brent price of $65/bbl or lower was more likely than $75/bbl or higher. Stanchart said its bearish view was informed by the fact that “…a significant amount of money has already entered the market in the Wall Street-generated belief (mistaken according to our analysis) that the balances are much tighter and justify USD 80-100/bbl.”

More recently, Stanchart maintained its bearish tone, saying that the oil price rally is not fully justified, and that the fundamental case for USD 80/bbl is not any stronger today than it was a few months ago.

Well, the energy bull market has continued defying all bearish expectations, and has forced Stanchart to do a 180 and join the bull camp.

In its latest commodity update, coming shortly after the October 4th OPEC+ meeting, Stanchart analysts say:

“We think the market has concluded that OPEC+ does not see USD 80 per barrel (bbl) as a ceiling, and that it is unlikely to cool prices in the short term…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

80pc of Kenya’s crude oil cannot be tapped

80pc of Kenya’s crude oil cannot be tapped

SUMMARY

  • The company said a new audit on the Turkana oil fields revealed a larger reservoir – commonly referred to as Oil Initially In Place (OIIP) in exploration parlance – compared to the previous estimate of 1.77 billion barrels.
  • The commercially extractable volume climbing to 585 million barrels from the previous estimate of 433 million barrels, according to the audit by British petroleum consulting firm Gaffney Cline Associates (GCA).
  • The OIIP is different from actual proven oil reserves because it represents the total amount of crude that is potentially in a reservoir and not the amount of oil that can be recovered for commercial use.

More than 80 percent of Kenya’s estimated 2.85 billion barrels oil reservoir remains inaccessible for commercial exploitation due to limitations in extraction technology, British oil firm Tullow said in an update on its exploration programme in Turkana County.

The company said a new audit on the Turkana oil fields revealed a larger reservoir – commonly referred to as Oil Initially In Place (OIIP) in exploration parlance – compared to the previous estimate of 1.77 billion barrels.

The commercially extractable volume climbing to 585 million barrels from the previous estimate of 433 million barrels, according to the audit by British petroleum consulting firm Gaffney Cline Associates (GCA).

The OIIP is different from actual proven oil reserves because it represents the total amount of crude that is potentially in a reservoir and not the amount of oil that can be recovered for commercial use.

“The 2.85 billion barrels is what is called “oil in place”, it is not reserves; what’s key is how much can be recovered and the number of 585million barrels is comparable to other onshore oil fields around the world,” Tullow told Business Daily.

“It is possible that (in future) technology may see greater recovery from the field but 585 million barrels is our best estimate at present.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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