More Droughts May Mean Less Power
The powerful flow of rivers such as the Columbia in Oregon, US, could be greatly reduced. (National Weather Service Forecast Office via Wikimedia Commons)
LONDON—Climate change could threaten the electricity supply around the world, according to new calculations. That is because the power generation depends on a sure supply of water.
But climate change also promises greater frequencies and intensities of heat and drought. So more than half of the world’s hydropower and thermoelectric generating plants could find their capacity reduced.
Michelle van Vliet, an environmental scientist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, and colleagues from the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Austria report in Nature Climate Change that they modelled the potential performance in the decades ahead of 24,515 hydropower plants and 1,427 nuclear, fossil-fuelled, biomass-fuelled and geothermal power stations.
Thermoelectric turbines—which generate power directly from heat, and rely on water as a coolant—and hydropower plants currently generate 98% of the planet’s electricity. But global water consumption for power generation is expected to double in the next 40 years as economies develop and the population continues to grow.
The scientists found that reductions in stream and river flow and the rise in levels of water temperature could reduce the generating capacity of up to 86% of the thermoelectric plants and up to 74% of the hydropower plants in their study.
“We clearly show that power plants are not only causing climate change, but they might also be affected in major ways by climate”
This means that power from hydro stations could fall by 3.6% in the 2050s and 6.1% in the 2080s, because of reduced stream flow. And by the 2050s, the monthly capacity of most of the thermoelectric power plants could drop by 50%.
Dr van Vliet says: “In particular, the United States, southern South America, southern Africa, central and southern Europe, Southeast Asia and southern Australia are vulnerable regions, because declines in mean annual stream flow are projected, combined with strong increases in water temperature under changing climate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
