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Spin cycle: Can 1.3-million new jobs be created in 5 years?

Spin cycle: Can 1.3-million new jobs be created in 5 years?

This election has a theme common to almost all others before it: everyone is promising more jobs

The promise of jobs, jobs, and more jobs has long been a staple of election campaigns.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has promised a basket of goodies to help manufacturing and other sectors create jobs, as well as help for young people and veterans to connect with the new jobs.

The Liberals, meanwhile, decided to go big or go home by promising $125-billion in infrastructure spending — even if it means short-term deficits.

Now it seems the Conservatives, not wanting to be outdone, are making a bold promise of their own.

Perhaps channeling Babe Ruth, Conservative leader Stephen Harper figuratively pointed to the faraway bleachers on Tuesday and promised “1.3-million net new jobs.”

The spin

“I would say that there is no reason why we can’t have a similar record on that we have now,” Harper told reporters on Tuesday.

Harper points out that the economy created 1.3-million new jobs since the “depths of the global recession.”

Of course, those jobs were created in large part by the unprecedented stimulus spending the government launched — including the largest deficit in Canadian history.

This time around is quite different. Harper’s plan to duplicate the results involves maintaining a balanced budget, reducing employment insurance premiums two years from now, and re-introducing the home renovation tax credit.

The counter spin

“I find that number, to put it mildly, wildly optimistic,” Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said.

Trudeau is dismissing this as just another empty campaign promise.

No one is going to campaign against creating more jobs. In fact, as mentioned, everyone in this campaign is promising that.

The critique, and indeed the test, of Harper’s promise is whether or not it is a realistic goal and, if so, are the measures in place to achieve it.

Economics and demographics

To borrow an old adage, if you asked 12 economists if tax cuts lead to job creation — you are likely to get 13 different opinions.

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