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Our Approaching Winter of Discontent
Our Approaching Winter of Discontent
The tragedy is so few act when the collapse is predictably inevitable, but not yet manifesting in daily life.
That chill you feel in the financial weather presages an unprecedented–and for most people, unexpectedly severe–winter of discontent. Rather than sugarcoat what’s coming, let’s speak plainly for a change: none of the promises that have been made to you will be kept.
This includes explicit promises to provide income security and healthcare entitlements, etc., and implicit promises that don’t need to be stated: a currency that holds its value, high-functioning public infrastructure, etc.
Nearly “free” (to you) healthcare: no.
Generous public pensions: no.
Social Security with an equivalent purchasing power to the checks issued today: no.
As for the implicit promises:
A national currency that holds its value into the future: no.
High-functioning public infrastructure: maybe in a few places, but not something to be taken for granted everywhere.
A working democracy in which common citizens can affect change even if the power structure defends a dysfunctional and corrupt status quo: no.
A higher education system that prepares its graduates for secure jobs in the real-world economy: on average, no.
Cheap, abundant fossil fuels and electricity: during recessionary head-fakes, yes; but as a permanent entitlement: no.
High returns on conventional capital (the kind created and distributed by central banks): no.
A government that can borrow endless trillions of dollars with no impact on interest rates or the real economy: no.
Pay raises that keep up with real-world inflation: no.
Ever-rising corporate profits: no.
You get the idea: the status quo will be unable to keep the myriad promises made to the public, implicitly and explicitly. The reason is not difficult to understand:
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Spin cycle: Can 1.3-million new jobs be created in 5 years?
This election has a theme common to almost all others before it: everyone is promising more jobs
The promise of jobs, jobs, and more jobs has long been a staple of election campaigns.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has promised a basket of goodies to help manufacturing and other sectors create jobs, as well as help for young people and veterans to connect with the new jobs.
The Liberals, meanwhile, decided to go big or go home by promising $125-billion in infrastructure spending — even if it means short-term deficits.
Now it seems the Conservatives, not wanting to be outdone, are making a bold promise of their own.
Perhaps channeling Babe Ruth, Conservative leader Stephen Harper figuratively pointed to the faraway bleachers on Tuesday and promised “1.3-million net new jobs.”
The spin
“I would say that there is no reason why we can’t have a similar record on that we have now,” Harper told reporters on Tuesday.
Harper points out that the economy created 1.3-million new jobs since the “depths of the global recession.”
Of course, those jobs were created in large part by the unprecedented stimulus spending the government launched — including the largest deficit in Canadian history.
This time around is quite different. Harper’s plan to duplicate the results involves maintaining a balanced budget, reducing employment insurance premiums two years from now, and re-introducing the home renovation tax credit.
The counter spin
“I find that number, to put it mildly, wildly optimistic,” Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said.
Trudeau is dismissing this as just another empty campaign promise.
No one is going to campaign against creating more jobs. In fact, as mentioned, everyone in this campaign is promising that.
The critique, and indeed the test, of Harper’s promise is whether or not it is a realistic goal and, if so, are the measures in place to achieve it.
Economics and demographics
To borrow an old adage, if you asked 12 economists if tax cuts lead to job creation — you are likely to get 13 different opinions.
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