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Spin cycle: Can 1.3-million new jobs be created in 5 years?
This election has a theme common to almost all others before it: everyone is promising more jobs
The promise of jobs, jobs, and more jobs has long been a staple of election campaigns.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair has promised a basket of goodies to help manufacturing and other sectors create jobs, as well as help for young people and veterans to connect with the new jobs.
The Liberals, meanwhile, decided to go big or go home by promising $125-billion in infrastructure spending — even if it means short-term deficits.
Now it seems the Conservatives, not wanting to be outdone, are making a bold promise of their own.
Perhaps channeling Babe Ruth, Conservative leader Stephen Harper figuratively pointed to the faraway bleachers on Tuesday and promised “1.3-million net new jobs.”
The spin
“I would say that there is no reason why we can’t have a similar record on that we have now,” Harper told reporters on Tuesday.
Harper points out that the economy created 1.3-million new jobs since the “depths of the global recession.”
Of course, those jobs were created in large part by the unprecedented stimulus spending the government launched — including the largest deficit in Canadian history.
This time around is quite different. Harper’s plan to duplicate the results involves maintaining a balanced budget, reducing employment insurance premiums two years from now, and re-introducing the home renovation tax credit.
The counter spin
“I find that number, to put it mildly, wildly optimistic,” Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said.
Trudeau is dismissing this as just another empty campaign promise.
No one is going to campaign against creating more jobs. In fact, as mentioned, everyone in this campaign is promising that.
The critique, and indeed the test, of Harper’s promise is whether or not it is a realistic goal and, if so, are the measures in place to achieve it.
Economics and demographics
To borrow an old adage, if you asked 12 economists if tax cuts lead to job creation — you are likely to get 13 different opinions.
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Federal election campaign’s phoney debate over deficits: Chris Hall
Answers on how parties plan to pay for campaign promises may not come for weeks yet
This federal election is supposed to be about the economy, an opportunity for voters to determine which party is offering the best plan to create jobs, open new markets for Canadian goods and services and to help this country withstand what is shaping up to be, at worst, another recession or, at best, another period of stagnant growth.
- Leaders trade shots on who will or won’t run deficit — and whether it matters
- ANALYSIS | Federal leaders’ tours offer a glimpse at campaign strategies
- ANALYSIS | Chris Hall: Duffy trial testimony has Harper campaign on the defensive
But so far this week those important questions are secondary to a dispute over budget deficits — or more accurately, a debate over why one party is prepared to run a deficit in order to finance their campaign promises.
For now, it’s a phoney debate.
None of the parties have put out a fully costed plan, tallying up how much their promises will cost. Those platforms will come sometime in September when, if current forecasts hold, the Canadian economy will be technically in another recession.
- The CBC Election Pollcast, hosted by CBC poll analyst and ThreeHundredEight.com founder Éric Grenier, explores the world of political polls, their influence on the media and the trends they are showing. Subscribe to Éric Grenier’s Election Pollcast podcast
It’s also not clear whether the federal books are balanced, or if the government slid back into deficit this year because of the plunge in oil prices, with the subsequent loss in federal revenues and increase in employment insurance claims — particularly in Alberta where EI claims have risen eight months in a row through June, and Saskatchewan, where claims were up nearly five per cent that month.
