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Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation

Trade End Game Scenarios: Boycott Treasuries vs Yuan Devaluation Since there is no longer any reasonable debate about a trade war having started, let’s investigate how it ends. End Game Analysis The end-game retaliation comes via a global boycott of the Treasury auctions. Foreign entities fund half the US fiscal deficit, which is set to […]

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Why QE4 Is Inevitable

Why QE4 Is Inevitable One narrative we’ve pushed quite hard this week is the idea that China’s persistent FX interventions in support of the yuan are costing the PBoC dearly in terms of reserves. Of course this week’s posts hardly represent the first time we’ve touched on the issue of FX reserve liquidation and its […]

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China Mess, Yuan Devaluation Spread to the US

China Mess, Yuan Devaluation Spread to the US China’s auto market, which had been the single most important element in the convoluted growth story of GM and other global automakers, was getting battered even before the yuan devaluation. But now elements coagulate into a toxic mix. Sales of passenger vehicles in July dropped 6.6% from […]

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China “Loses Battle Over Yuan”, And Now The Global Currency War Begins

China “Loses Battle Over Yuan”, And Now The Global Currency War Begins Almost exactly seven months ago, on January 15, the Swiss National Bank shocked the world when it admitted defeat in a long-standing war to keep the Swiss Franc artificially weak, and after a desperate 3 year-long gamble, which included loading up the SNB’s balance […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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