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The Next Geopolitical Flashpoint For Oil

The Next Geopolitical Flashpoint For Oil

Sudan Coup

The removal of long-time Sudanese dictator Omar Bashir by the Sudanese army has been hailed by some as a sign of a new “Arab Spring”.

From a Western point of view, the removal of president Bashir of Sudan, after several weeks of mass protests in Khartoum and other cities, is in line with the exit of Algeria’s long-time leader Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Optimism in the press, especially in the West, over both developments seem to be based on emotions and not on facts. As the Arab Spring has shown, don’t ever count out the existing power structures of the respective regimes, and specifically the armed forces. The Egyptian revolution was the first example, shortly after the ‘democratic revolution’ the military took over and reinstated the status quo.

The sudden intervention by the Sudanese forces, led by Sudanese defense minister, Awad Ibn Auf, to remove President Bashir from office is again fully in line with the Egyptian and Algerian examples. So-called democratic protests on the street have culminated in a showdown. Internal assessments by the Sudanese armed forces, and security forces have shown that the position of Bashir was unsustainable. International pressure and internal dissent have totally undermined the position of the Bashir clan, and Arab states didn’t bother to rescue the embattled dictator. These assessments have not been made in the Western press, as Europeans and Americans always seem to focus on the narrative of protesters chanting for freedom.

The facts on the ground are different. The current developments could well be qualified as a second “Arab Spring”, as it follows the same political and security story that we have seen before. President Bashir has been removed from office without a military confrontation between the Sudanese armed forces and the militant supporters of Bashir, the Janjaweed.

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The War in Syria: Who Is Actually to Blame?

Those of us who inform ourselves daily from an eclectic range of media sources tend to have a broader understanding of the conflict in Syria. The more critical one becomes of both ends of the media spectrum, the more one can evaluate the veracity of the respective outlets (for example, the peddling of statistics from a T-shirt shop in England versus the use of satellite imagery).

Analyzing all forms of media leads to only one conclusion regarding the current crisis in Syria: all of the parties involved have an overwhelming amount of blood on their hands and are playing a role in the ongoing war. However, the evidence suggests there is one group of nations, headed by the world’s superpower, that has once again created a humanitarian catastrophe rivaling that of history’s worst dictators.

Although corporate media has portrayed the situation in Syria as being one of a popular uprising against a brutal and murderous dictator, the truth is far more complex.

According to four-star General Wesley Clark, Syria was one of seven countries the Pentagon targeted for regime change following the attacks of September 11, 2001. The others were Libya, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, and Iran. This intention to take out Syria’s leader prior to the start conflict in 2011 was confirmed by Wikileaks (you can access the relevant chapter in its entirety here). According to Julian Assange, Assad’s overthrow was planned as far back as 2006. As explained by MintPress News:

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World War 3 Could Start This Month: 350,000 Soldiers In Saudi Arabia Stand Ready To Invade Syria

World War 3 Could Start This Month: 350,000 Soldiers In Saudi Arabia Stand Ready To Invade Syria

War Soldiers - Public Domain350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called “Northern Thunder”.  According to the official announcement, forces are being contributed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations.  This exercise will reportedly last for 18 days, and during that time the airspace over northern Saudi Arabia will be closed to air traffic.  This will be the largest military exercise in the history of the region, and it comes amid rumors that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are preparing for a massive ground invasion of Syria.

If you were going to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely how you would do it.  Governments never come out and publicly admit that forces are moving into position for an invasion ahead of time, so “military exercises” are a common excuse that gets used for this sort of thing.

If these exercises are actually being used as an excuse to mass forces near the northern Saudi border, then we should expect an invasion to begin within the next couple of weeks.  If it happens, we should expect to see the Saudi coalition storm through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north.

The goal would be to take out the Assad regime before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react.  For the past couple of years, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have been funding the Sunni insurgency in Syria, and they were counting on those insurgents to be able to take down the Assad regime by themselves.

 

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Time to Start Paying Attention: Why Saudi Arabia Might Pull the US into Another War

“This Saudi-Iranian sudden and acute crisis is a very worrisome development, and we must at all costs avoid that it produces a chain of violent consequences in the region,” warned United Nations mediator, Staffan de Mistura, in an email to the New York Times.

“This is a very disturbing escalation,” said Michael Stephens, an analyst with the Royal United Services Institute research center in London, according to the Times“It has enormous consequences for the people of the region, and the tensions between the two sides are going to mean that instability across the region is going to continue.”

On Monday, three Sunni-led nations — Bahrain, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates joined the Saudis in breaking or greatly reducing diplomatic relations with Iran.

Despite prior international calls to grant the outspoken cleric clemency — and sharp warnings from Iran of dire consequences should the execution be carried out — the al-Saud monarchy pushed ahead with its message via mass execution, ironically intended to quash possible violence against the State. As promised, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei issued a sharp rebuke condemning the execution of al-Nimr, published on his official website:

“Doubtlessly, this innocent martyr’s blood, which was spilled unjustly, will quickly show its effect and the divine vengeance will befall the Saudi politicians.

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On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over Water

On the River Nile, a Move to Avert a Conflict Over Water

Ethiopia’s plans to build Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile have sparked tensions with Egypt, which depends on the river to irrigate its arid land. But after years of tensions, an international agreement to share the Nile’s waters may be in sight.

For thousands of years, Egyptians have depended on the waters of the Nile flowing out of the Ethiopian highlands and central Africa. It is the world’s longest river, passing through 11 countries, but without its waters the most downstream of those nations, Egypt, is a barren desert. So when, in 2011, Ethiopia began to build a giant hydroelectric dam across the river’s largest tributary, the Blue Nile, it looked like Egypt might carry out its long-standing threat to go to war to protect its lifeline.

But last weekend, all appeared to change. Ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan agreed on the basis for a deal for managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. So is peace about to break out on the River Nile? Longtime Nile observers are warning that a dispute that has lasted for a century may not end so easily.

Some 8,000 Ethiopian construction workers are currently at work building the Ethiopian dam at a site close to where the Blue Nile crosses into Sudan, before joining the White Nile and heading on to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. The scheme currently is about a third completed. Ethiopia says the dam is essential to its own economic development, while Egypt has called for construction to halt. 

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Crude Conspiracies? Data Suggest Nations Do Go to War Over Oil

Crude Conspiracies? Data Suggest Nations Do Go to War Over Oil 

The “thirst for oil” is often put forward as a near self-evident explanation behind military interventions in Libya, for instance, or Sudan. Oil, or the lack of oil, is also said to be behind the absence of intervention in Syria now and in Rwanda in 1994.

This of course clashes with the rhetoric around intervention, or its stated goal. No world leader stands before the UN and says they’re sending in the tanks because their country needs more oil. Such interventions are usually portrayed as serving directly non-economic goals such as preserving security, supporting democratic values, or more generally promoting human rights.

 

Violence In South Sudan Threatens Chinese Oil Investment

Violence In South Sudan Threatens Chinese Oil Investment.

On December 15, 2013, fierce fighting broke out in South Sudan’s capital, Juba. Rebel forces loyal to Machar targeted South Sudan’s oil fields, and what started as a clash, quickly escalated to a civil war. Violence swept the country, killing tens of thousands people and displacing over one million.

The UN estimates that almost a third of the population, 4 million people, is now in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The promise of nation-building seems to be a distant memory as South Sudanese leaders viciously struggle to claim power.

Months of ongoing political tensions between President Kiir and Machar has inexorably reopened deep fault lines among ethnic groups, begging the question: Can these two main tribal groups reach a common ground before they destroy the world’s youngest nation?

Related: Kenya to Develop Africa’s Largest Wind Project

When South Sudan became independent, it gained not only sovereignty but control of about three-fourths of Sudan’s oil production, a devastating blow to Sudan’s economy. The IMF estimates that Sudan lost roughly 55% of its fiscal revenues and about two-thirds of its foreign exchange earnings. Sudan’s crude oil export revenues were dramatically slashed from a near $11 billion in 2010 to less than $2 billion in 2012.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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