I thought I would try something a little different in this Contemplation as I work on reading and summarising a chapter from a monograph–Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation. Today’s Contemplation is a Large Language Model Artificial Intelligence-generated summary of three specific questions pertaining to the longevity of ‘empires’, what causes complex societies to ‘collapse’, and what role resource finiteness would play in the longevity of a complex society.
My limited understanding of these computer programmes is that they are exposed to vast datasets of information and then collate this in a summary directed at the query posed. Based upon my personal reading and understanding of the topics I inquired about, the summarised answers below provide a very good synopsis and great starting point for anyone interested in exploring them.
As an aside, I have to wonder how influencing mainstream narratives (something our ruling elite are very good at via numerous avenues) impacts the datasets such programmes depend upon, leading to less-than-accurate summaries/answers to many questions and especially in the sociopolitical and socioeconomic realms–the two areas I would argue that the elite are most interested in ‘managing’ beliefs/perceptions about. But even within areas where the ruling elite may have little skin-in-the-game, and depending upon the prevalent paradigm of the moment, AI-generated responses can simply result in further echoing of the ideas/worldview that are dominant without much critical or outside-the-box thinking involved.
As an example of this is the answer provided to the final question where the impact of finite resources on the longevity of a complex society is proposed to be addressed via increased technological innovation–especially the adoption of ‘renewable’ energy products, given the recognition that our societies are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons. As I and a few others argue, an increase in mass-produced, complex industrial technologies exacerbates the predicaments we face and are not in any way a ‘solution’. The mainstream zeitgeist, however, is and will probably continue to be that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can address and solve anything that comes our way. There is, after all, a lot of wealth to be made through the pursuit of these technologies and attempting to sustain the unsustainable so it’s important to get that story out and about–repeatedly–and accepted without much in the way of questioning or critical thought.
Our world ‘leaders’ are, if nothing else, fairly consistent in their machinations to ensure they continue to draw revenue streams through whatever means they can control, expand, and/or leverage. And the majority of people outside of the ruling class would prefer to continue and/or improve upon our business-as-usual trajectory rather than think about a less-than-appealing alternative. In fact, my personal experience suggests that the overwhelming majority of people don’t even think about these issues to any degree. But, yeah, let’s put all our eggs in the basket of ecologically-destructive, mass-produced industrial technologies that humanity is so fantastic at spitting out and slap ourselves on the back for our brilliance–Wise Human indeed!
Anyways, without further ado here are the responses I received on my three questions.
How long do empires tend to last?
The lifespan of empires can vary widely depending on numerous factors, including their political structure, economic stability, military power, cultural cohesion, and external pressures. Historically, empires have lasted anywhere from a few decades to several centuries. Here are some examples:
1. Short-lived Empires:
– The Mongol Empire (1206–1368): Lasted about 162 years at its peak, though its fragmentation began earlier.
– The First French Empire (1804–1814/1815): Lasted about 10 years under Napoleon Bonaparte.
2. Medium-lived Empires:
– The Aztec Empire (1428–1521): Lasted about 93 years before falling to Spanish conquistadors.
– The Ottoman Empire (1299–1922): Lasted about 623 years, though its peak power declined significantly after the 17th century.
3. Long-lived Empires:
– The Roman Empire (27 BCE–476 CE in the West, and until 1453 CE in the East): The Western Roman Empire lasted about 500 years, while the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire endured for nearly 1,500 years.
– The Chinese Empires (various dynasties): Some, like the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) or the Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE), lasted for centuries, with periods of fragmentation in between.
4. Factors Influencing Longevity:
– Strong Institutions: Empires with stable governance, legal systems, and administrative efficiency tend to last longer.
– Economic Prosperity: Wealth and trade networks can sustain an empire through challenges.
– Military Power: The ability to defend against external threats and maintain internal order is crucial.
– Cultural Cohesion: Shared identity, religion, or ideology can help unify diverse populations.
– Adaptability: Empires that adapt to changing circumstances (e.g., technological advancements, shifting trade routes) are more likely to endure.
On average, empires tend to last between 200 and 300 years, though this is a rough estimate. Many decline due to overexpansion, internal strife, economic decline, or external invasions.
What causes complex societies to collapse?
The collapse of complex societies is a multifaceted phenomenon that can result from a combination of internal and external factors. Historians, archaeologists, and sociologists have identified several recurring causes, often interrelated, that contribute to the decline and fall of complex societies. Here are some of the most significant factors:
1. Environmental Degradation and Resource Depletion
– Deforestation, soil erosion, and overfarming: These can lead to agricultural decline, food shortages, and famine.
– Water mismanagement: Overuse or poor management of water resources can cause droughts and desertification.
– Climate change: Natural shifts in climate (e.g., prolonged droughts, cooling periods) can destabilize societies reliant on specific environmental conditions.
– Example: The collapse of the Maya civilization has been linked to prolonged droughts and deforestation.
2. Economic Instability
– Overextension: Empires that expand too quickly may struggle to maintain control over distant territories, leading to economic strain.
– Resource inequality: Extreme wealth disparity can lead to social unrest and weaken the economic foundation of a society.
– Trade disruption: Loss of trade routes or economic partners can cripple a society’s economy.
– Example: The Roman Empire faced economic troubles due to overexpansion, inflation, and reliance on slave labor.
3. Political Instability and Governance Failure
– Corruption and inefficiency: Weak or corrupt leadership can undermine governance and public trust.
– Succession crises: Power struggles or unclear lines of succession can lead to civil wars or fragmentation.
– Overcentralization: Excessive reliance on a central authority can make a society vulnerable if that authority weakens.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was exacerbated by political instability and ineffective leadership.
4. Social Unrest and Inequality
– Class conflict: Extreme inequality between elites and commoners can lead to rebellion or civil war.
– Loss of social cohesion: Divisions along ethnic, religious, or cultural lines can weaken societal unity.
– Example: The French Revolution was fueled by widespread inequality and social discontent.
5. External Pressures
– Invasions and warfare: External attacks or prolonged conflicts can overwhelm a society’s defenses.
– Migration pressures: Influxes of migrants or refugees can strain resources and destabilize societies.
– Example: The fall of the Western Roman Empire was hastened by invasions from Germanic tribes and the Huns.
6. Cultural and Ideological Decline
– Loss of shared identity: A decline in cultural or religious unity can erode societal cohesion.
– Resistance to change: Societies that fail to adapt to new ideas or technologies may stagnate and collapse.
– Example: The decline of the Byzantine Empire was partly due to cultural and religious divisions.
7. Epidemics and Disease
– Population decline: Pandemics can devastate populations, leading to labor shortages and economic collapse.
– Example: The Black Death in the 14th century contributed to the decline of feudal systems in Europe.
8. Technological and Military Stagnation
– Failure to innovate: Societies that fall behind in technological or military advancements may be overtaken by rivals.
– Example: The Aztec Empire was outmatched by Spanish conquistadors due to superior European technology.
9. Interconnected Crises (The “Perfect Storm”)
– Often, collapses result from a combination of the above factors rather than a single cause. For example:
– Environmental stress can lead to food shortages, which trigger social unrest and weaken the state, making it vulnerable to external invasions.
– Example: The Bronze Age Collapse (c. 1200 BCE) involved climate change, invasions, economic disruption, and political fragmentation.
Theories on Societal Collapse
– Joseph Tainter’s “Diminishing Returns of Complexity”: As societies grow more complex, the costs of maintaining that complexity (e.g., bureaucracy, infrastructure) eventually outweigh the benefits, leading to collapse.
– Jared Diamond’s “Five-Point Framework”: In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and societal responses to problems as key factors.
Conclusion
The collapse of complex societies is rarely due to a single cause but rather a combination of environmental, economic, political, social, and external factors. Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into the vulnerabilities of modern societies and the importance of resilience and adaptability.
How will the finiteness of resources impact the longevity of complex societies?
The finiteness of resources is a critical factor that can significantly impact the longevity of complex societies. Throughout history, the availability and management of resources—such as food, water, energy, and raw materials—have played a central role in the rise and fall of civilizations. In the modern era, the finite nature of resources poses unique challenges due to global interconnectedness, population growth, and increasing consumption. Here’s how resource limitations could affect the longevity of complex societies:
1. Resource Depletion
– Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels, minerals, and metals are finite and will eventually run out or become prohibitively expensive to extract. Societies heavily reliant on these resources (e.g., for energy, manufacturing, or technology) may face economic and social instability as supplies dwindle.
– Renewable resources: Even renewable resources like fresh water, fertile soil, and forests can be overexploited, leading to scarcity and environmental degradation.
Impact: Resource depletion can lead to economic collapse, social unrest, and conflict over remaining supplies, undermining the stability of complex societies.
2. Energy Transition Challenges
– Fossil fuel dependence: Many societies rely on fossil fuels for energy, transportation, and industry. Transitioning to renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind) is essential but requires significant investment, infrastructure, and time.
– Energy return on investment (EROI): As finite resources become harder to extract, the energy required to obtain them increases, reducing the net energy available to society.
Impact: A poorly managed energy transition could lead to energy shortages, economic decline, and geopolitical tensions, threatening the stability of complex societies.
3. Food and Water Scarcity
– Agricultural limits: Soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change can reduce agricultural productivity, leading to food shortages.
– Water stress: Overuse and pollution of freshwater resources can exacerbate water scarcity, particularly in arid regions.
Impact: Food and water shortages can trigger mass migration, social unrest, and conflict, destabilizing societies and straining global systems.
4. Economic Instability
– Resource-driven economies: Societies dependent on finite resources (e.g., oil-exporting nations) may face economic collapse as resources are depleted or demand shifts.
– Inflation and inequality: Scarcity of essential resources can drive up prices, exacerbating economic inequality and social tensions.
Impact: Economic instability can weaken governance, increase poverty, and lead to societal breakdown.
5. Technological and Innovation Limits
– Substitution challenges: While technology can mitigate some resource limitations (e.g., renewable energy, recycling), it may not fully replace finite resources or address all environmental impacts.
– Innovation bottlenecks: Developing and scaling new technologies requires time, investment, and resources, which may be constrained in a resource-scarce world.
Impact: Failure to innovate or adapt to resource constraints could lead to stagnation or decline in complex societies.
6. Environmental Degradation
– Pollution and waste: Overexploitation of resources often leads to environmental damage, such as pollution, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity.
– Climate change: Resource extraction and consumption contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, driving climate change and its associated risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise).
Impact: Environmental degradation can reduce the carrying capacity of ecosystems, making it harder for societies to sustain themselves.
7. Geopolitical Tensions and Conflict
– Resource competition: Scarcity of critical resources (e.g., water, oil, rare earth metals) can lead to geopolitical tensions and conflict between nations.
– Inequitable distribution: Resource-rich regions may face exploitation or intervention by external powers, while resource-poor regions may struggle to meet basic needs.
Impact: Resource-driven conflicts can destabilize regions, disrupt global trade, and threaten the longevity of complex societies.
8. Social and Cultural Responses
– Adaptation and resilience: Societies that prioritize sustainability, resource efficiency, and equitable distribution may be better equipped to handle resource limitations.
– Resistance to change: Cultural or political resistance to reducing consumption or adopting new technologies can hinder efforts to address resource scarcity.
Impact: Societal responses to resource constraints will play a key role in determining whether complex societies can adapt and endure.
Historical Precedents
– Collapse of the Roman Empire: Overexpansion, resource depletion (e.g., soil degradation), and economic instability contributed to its decline.
– Easter Island: Deforestation and overexploitation of resources led to societal collapse.
– Modern parallels: Current trends in resource depletion, climate change, and environmental degradation raise concerns about the sustainability of modern societies.
Strategies for Longevity
To mitigate the impact of finite resources and enhance the longevity of complex societies, the following strategies are essential:
1. Sustainable Resource Management: Prioritize conservation, recycling, and efficient use of resources.
2. Transition to Renewable Energy: Invest in renewable energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
3. Technological Innovation: Develop technologies for resource efficiency, alternative materials, and environmental restoration.
4. Economic Diversification: Reduce reliance on resource-driven economies and promote sustainable industries.
5. Global Cooperation: Address resource scarcity and environmental challenges through international collaboration and equitable resource distribution.
6. Social Adaptation: Foster cultural and behavioral changes that prioritize sustainability and resilience.
Conclusion
The finiteness of resources poses a significant challenge to the longevity of complex societies. While resource limitations can lead to economic instability, environmental degradation, and conflict, proactive measures—such as sustainable resource management, technological innovation, and global cooperation—can help societies adapt and thrive. The ability to balance resource use with environmental and social needs will be critical in ensuring the long-term survival of complex societies in a resource-constrained world.
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
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You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
Years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a correspondence to me, “Empires fall from grace with alarming speed.”
Every now and then, you receive a comment that, although it may have been stated casually, has a lasting effect, as it offers uncommon insight. For me, this was one of those and it’s one that I’ve kept handy at my desk since that time, as a reminder.
I’m from a British family, one that left the UK just as the British Empire was about to begin its decline. They expatriated to the “New World” to seek promise for the future.
As I’ve spent most of my life centred in a British colony – the Cayman Islands – I’ve had the opportunity to observe many British contract professionals who left the UK seeking advancement, which they almost invariably find in Cayman. Curiously, though, most returned to the UK after a contract or two, in the belief that the UK would bounce back from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when Britain “came back.”
This, of course, never happened. The US replaced the UK as the world’s foremost empire, and although the UK has had its ups and downs over the ensuing decades, it hasn’t returned to its former glory.
And it never will.
If we observe the empires of the world that have existed over the millennia, we see a consistent history of collapse without renewal. Whether we’re looking at the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, or any other that’s existed at one time, history is remarkably consistent: The decline and fall of any empire never reverses itself; nor does the empire return, once it’s fallen.
But of what importance is this to us today?
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The tricky part is distinguishing the critical dependencies–those resources the empire literally cannot do without–from longer-term sources of decay and decline.
What conclusions can we draw from recent research and the voluminous work done by previous generations of historians? Our first conclusion is simply to state the obvious: it’s complicated. There was no one cause of Western Rome’s decay and collapse. A multitude of factors generated feedback loops and responses over hundreds of years, some more successful than others.
Indeed, we cannot help but be struck by how many times impending collapse was staved off by brilliant leadership and policy adjustments.
Our second conclusion is to distinguish between the erosive forces of decay and critical vulnerabilities that can trigger collapse. Many authors have pointed to moral decay and fiscal over-reach as sources of Rome’s eventual fall, but there were far more pressing dependencies that created potentially fatal vulnerabilities.
In the case of Western Rome, these included:
1. The depletion of the silver mines in Spain (and the eventual loss of Spain to the Visigoths). Once you run out of hard currency, your free-spending days are over. This dependence on large quantities of hard currency to fund your armed forces is a trigger for collapse.
Sometimes, after reading a slew of news articles from around the world, I feel confused and weary. But occasionally patterns seem to emerge. I say “seem” because the human brain is all too eager to see patterns where there are none (hence humanity’s fascination with false conspiracy theories). Nevertheless, these days I can hardly escape the sense that current events are accelerating toward . . . something troubling.
Of course, we all bring preconceptions to bear on new information, and those preconceptions tend to shape the patterns we see. My own preconceptions have emerged from a few decades of studying humanity’s systemic problems—climate change, resource depletion, pollution, economic inequality and fragility, authoritarianism, war, and so on—and how these evolved through many centuries up to the present in response to new energy sources and technological innovation. The cornerstone of my preconceptions is a limits-to-growth perspective that sees the last few decades of fossil-fueled rapid expansion of population and per-capita consumption as profoundly unsustainable, and the decades of the 2020s and 2030s as the likely turning point in humanity’s overall trajectory from rapid growth to just-as-rapid contraction.
So, I guess you could say I’m a short-term, big-picture pessimist. You can judge for yourself whether focusing that particular lens on the Rorschach inkblot of current events is helpful.
The world is a complex place, and some countries are always doing better or worse than others. But occasionally, as was the case with the Great Depression and World War II, the whole world seems to falter or erupt at once. If the pattern I think I see is really there, we may be approaching a similarly pivotal moment.
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away. -Percy Bysshe Shelley, 1818 – (image by Dezgo.com)
All empires in history follow the same trajectory of glory, stasis, and decay. They start their existence around agricultural or mineral resources that they use to create a powerful military force. Then, they grow by conquering their neighbors. The structure of an empire is not different from that of other human enterprises: companies, states, or other groups of people who happen to collaborate with each other in formal or informal ways. It is just that empires are nearly pure military organizations. They live by war, and they die by war.
Necessarily, the resources that created the glorious empire are destined to run out, typically overexploited by the greedy imperial elites. At the same time, the empire itself creates structures that tend to destroy it: bureaucracy, desertification, pollution, and more. In time, depletion and pollution collaborate to bring down the mighty imperial structure and to bring it down fast. It is the essence of the “Seneca Effect,” according to the words of the Roman Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca, who noted that “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” At some point, the King of Kings, Ozymandias, will find that his time has come, and nothing will be left of him except carvings on stones in the desert that proclaim his eternal glory.
But between the phases of growth and the collapse, there is a gray zone, a short-lived age in which the empire is still powerful enough to attempt new conquests but too weak to succeed…
We know very little about what the rich actually think, surely nothing like what transpires from their public declarations. I’ve always been thinking that the rich and the powerful are not smarter than the average commoner, such as you and I. But just the fact that they are average means that the smart ones among them must understand what’s going on. And what are they going to do about the chaos to come? They have much more power than us, and whatever they decide to do will affect us all.
Douglas Rushkoff gives us several interesting hints of what the rich have in mind in his book “Survival of the Richest” (2022)
The portrait of the average rich person from the book is not flattening. We are told of a bunch of ruthless people, unable to care for others (that is, lacking empathy), and convinced that the way to solve problems is to accumulate money and keep growing as if there are no limits. But Rushkoff tells us that at least some of them understand that we are going to crash against some kind of wall in the near future. And they are preparing for that.
Even without Rushkoff’s book, it seems clear to me that plenty of planning and scheming is going on behind closed doors. Large sections of our society are by now completely opaque to inquiry, and commoners have no possibility to affect what’s being decided. We know less of what’s going on in Washington’s inner circles than the Danish peasants knew of what was going on inside the Castle of Elsinore.
As an increasing number of people realize that their home country is becoming a liability to them, the most common question I hear from them is, “What do I have to do to remain where I am and still be assured that I’ll be able to retain both my wealth and my freedom?”
The simple (and tragic) answer to this question is that there is no such solution. The two objectives are mutually exclusive.
Throughout the ages, whenever an empire has begun its inevitable collapse, no country has ever woken up and reversed the process. In every case, the government rides the decline to the bottom. And, along the way, a series of policies is invariably undertaken to save those in government in the downward rush. These policies are always at the expense of the populace.
Invariably, as the decline worsens, governments drag out the same policies that all other failing empires have implemented before them: Devaluation of currency, default on debt, increased warfare, creation of a police state and, finally, the looting of all those citizens who have even a modicum of wealth.
The question is not whether we like our home country as it presently is, but whether we’re prepared to accept what it’s about to become.
As people become more aware that their government is not only not their friend, but has become their greatest threat, it’s human nature to hope that “it won’t get any worse.”
And, of course, it then gets worse.
The great majority of people don’t actually try to escape until they find that they’re now trapped and cannot escape. (Curbing the outward flow is surprisingly easy for any government to achieve – by implying that those emigrating are enemies of the state. This time around, those attempting to exit will be called domestic terrorists.)
The slow passing of a global hegemon, the Empire of all empires, made me ponder how it will pass to the pages of history books. Apparently, its ruling elite has chosen a strategy called spite: knowingly (or unknowingly) hurting their own self interest, hoping that their enemies will be hurt more. Sanctions come to mind here as a prime example, but spending more than half of one’s discretionary budget on militarism could be seen as an even more spectacular way of running down services, infrastructure, security and resilience at home, while overcommitting oneself abroad — all at the same time. One way or the other, absent of a decisive victory rewarded with a renewed flow of cheap resources, both of these strategies will lead to increasing isolation and deprivation in the coming decades, then… well, something comparable to the fall of Rome. But let’s just not get ahead of ourselves yet.
First let’s define what is an empire. According to Britannica, it is “a group of countries or regions that are controlled by one ruler or one government”. Simple as that. In order to control a territory or state however, obviously you would need to apply some sort of force, be it economic, financial or military in nature, to ‘convince’ your ‘allies and partners’ that it is in their best interest to comply with your will. (Why, how else would you ask a sovereign country to commit economic suicide for your sole benefit…?) According to the late Anthony Stafford Beer, a British theorist, consultant and professor at the Manchester Business School:
“The purpose of a system is what it does. There is after all, no point in claiming that the purpose of a system is to do what it constantly fails to do.”
When the state / empire loses the ability to recognize and solve core problems of security and fairness, it will be replaced by another arrangement that is more adaptable and adept at solving problems.
From a systems perspective, nation-states and empires arise when they are superior solutions to security compared to whatever arrangement they replace: feudalism, warlords, tribal confederations, etc.
States and empires fail when they are no longer the solution, they are the problem. As the book The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization explains, when the dissolution of the state / empire becomes the pain-reducing solution, the inhabitants withdraw their support and the empire loses its grip and expires.
As I explain in my new book, Global Crisis, National Renewal, states and markets are problem-solving structures. These structures solve problems by optimizing adaptability and beneficial synergies that reinforce one another as evolutionary advances.
The rise of the middle class is an example of beneficial synergies: as this new class gains access to credit, expertise, trade, enterprise and pricing power for their labor, they have the means to transform their labor into capital by saving earnings and investing the capital in assets, new enterprises, etc. which then generate income from capital which fuels synergistic increases in credit, expertise, assets and income from investments.
States / empires fail and expire when they elevate the fatal synergies created by self-serving elites. Rather than encourage the dynamics of adaptation–competition, transparency, accountability, experimentation and dissent– the elites suppresses these forces as threats to their monopolies, cartels and wealth.
Stripped of adaptability and beneficial synergies, the state / empire is no longer able to solve problems. It becomes the problem which cannot be resolved.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
This painting by Konstantin Vasiliev (1942-1976) celebrates the great patriotic war of 1941-1945 (Вели́кая Оте́чественная война́). It is a good example of Soviet propaganda at its best. But, on average, propaganda in the Soviet Union was primitive and heavily based on censorship, eventually turning out to be unable to keep together the Union in a moment of crisis. In the West, propaganda was much more sophisticated and, for a while, it managed to convince Western citizens that they were told the truth by their governments. That phase is now over and the Western propaganda system has reverted to a fully “Soviet-style” censorship system. With this development, the Western Empire may well have sealed its doom: no government can survive for long if the people it rules don’t believe in it.
“The devil’s finest trick is to persuade you that he does not exist.” Charles Baudelaire
I distinctly remember when I was a child and my father saw me reading a small book illustrated with images showing red flags, sickles, and hammers. Worried, he took it from my hands, looked at it, and gave it back to me. “It is all right,” he said. “It is our propaganda.”What I had in my hands was an anti-communist pamphlet of the 1960s, issued by the Christian Democratic party. I remember it well, it was full of images of evil Soviet Communists slaughtering their own dissidents, part of the general anti-communist propaganda in Italy of the post-war period.
At that time, it was still fine to state openly that something was propaganda. And it was normal in a bi-polar world to be expected to believe in the propaganda issued by one’s political side while despising the symmetrical propaganda issued by the other side.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The U.S. wars lost in Iraq and Afghanistan showed imperial overreach beyond what even 20 years of war could manage. That the defeats were drawn out for so many years shows that domestic politics and the funding of the domestic military-industrial complex were, more than geopolitics, the key drivers of these wars. Empires can die from overreach and sacrificing broadly social goals for the narrow interests of political and economic minorities.
The United States has 4.25 percent of the world’s population yet accounts for about 20 percent of global deaths from COVID-19. A rich global superpower with a highly developed medical industry proved to be badly unprepared for and unable to cope with a viral pandemic. It now wrestles with a huge segment of its population that seems so alienated from major economic and political institutions that it risks self-destruction and demands the “right” to infect others. Refusing to accept lifesaving COVID-19 vaccine and mask mandates in the name of “freedom” mixes a frightening stew of ideological confusion, social division, and bitterly rising hostility within the population. The January 6 events in Washington, D.C., showed merely the tip of that iceberg.
Levels of debt—government, corporate, and household—are all at or near historical records and rising. Feeding and thereby supporting the rising debts is the Federal Reserve with its years of quantitative easing. Officials at the highest levels are now discussing the possible issuance of a trillion-dollar platinum coin to have the Fed give that sum in new credit to the U.S. Treasury to enable more U.S. government spending. The purpose goes far beyond political squabbling over the cap on the national debt…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
While the Federal Reserve and the Billionaire Class push the stock market to new highs to promote a false facade of prosperity, everyday life will fall apart.
How will the status quo collapse? An open conflict–a civil war, an insurrection, a coup–appeals to our affection for drama, but the more likely reality is a decidedly undramatic dissolution in which all the elements of our way of life we reckoned were solid and permanent simply melt into air, to borrow Marx’s trenchant phrase.
In other words, Rome won’t be sacked by Barbarians, or ignite in an insurrectionary conflagration–everything will simply stop working as those burdened with the impossible task of keeping a failed system glued together simply walk away.
If we examine the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Western Roman Empire, we can trace the eventual collapse to the sudden psychological shift from an assumption of permanence that found expression in denial (Rome can’t fall, it’s eternal…) or in the universal belief that life was unchanging and so everything was forever.
This psychological state was replaced by a shocked awareness that what was unimaginable, “impossible”–systemic collapse–was not only entirely possible, it was happening in real time. This change in consciousness arose in individuals in differing ways and velocities, but eventually everyone accepted that some adaptation was now necessary.
Correspondent R.J. and I have been discussing the consequences of the sharp decline in the value of labor which is painfully obvious in the chart below and the many other charts depicting the declining purchasing power of wages and the skimming of the majority of the economic gains by the top 0.1%.
In effect, it no longer pays to work beyond the bare minimum needed to survive as all the value generated by labor above this minimum is either skimmed by the Bezos, Buffetts, Gates, Zuckerbergs et al. or it’s paid in higher taxes to the government.
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Donald Trump is often represented wearing some kind of imperial garb. Actually, his presidency may have been less imperial than that of his predecessors. Yet, his style as president is very much “imperial” and his winning slogan in the 2016 elections, “MAGA,” (make America great again) has a deep imperial ring to it. Earlier on, Benito Mussolini, the leader of the Italian government between the two world wars, was destroyed (and with him Italy and not just Italy) by his Imperial ambitions.
When things get tough, people seem to think that they need tough leaders and this is a clear trend in the world, nowadays. It is a deadly mechanism that tends to bring dangerous psychotic personalities to the top government positions. I already noted in a previous post how imperial ambitions coupled with incompetence (both common conditions in high-level leaders) can destroy entire countries.
Here, let me examine an interesting feature of how Benito Mussolini (1883 -1945) ruled Italy. Despite his warlike rhetoric, during the first phase of his government he pursued a moderate foreign policy, avoiding wars. Then, the second phase of his rule was characterized by a series of disastrous wars that led to the destruction of Italy (and not just of Italy) and to the downfall of Mussolini himself. Whether this story can tell us something about a possible second term for Donald Trump as president, is left to the readers to decide.
Benito Mussolini and the Italian Empire: How Leaders’ Absurd Decisions Lead to Collapse.
Benito Mussolini ruled Italy for 21 years after the “March on Rome” of 1922. Many things happened during those years but, on the whole, you could think of the Fascist rule as having two phases: one before and the other after the turning point that was the invasion of Ethiopia, in 1935.
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