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What is 2032?

Many people have asked, “Why is 2032 going to be such a major change in the world’s political economy and society as a whole?”

We are confronted by the end of the Sixth Wave come 2032, which will be a profound economic and political change. It appears these world leaders are pushing us toward fulfilling the vision of Kalus Schwab and his distorted view of how society functions. While the first wave marked the collapse of Rome, 794 marked the collapse of the Nara period in Japan as the capital then moved to Kyoto. That would last until 1185 AD when government was overthrown, marking the birth of the Shogun Period (military general authority). The Great Seljuk Turkish Empire had its origins, with its first capital in 1037. By 1092, the Seljuk Empire was at its greatest upon Malik Shah I’s death and had captured most of the Byzantine Empire, creating the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 in Constantinople. Alexius I (1081-1118AD) of Byzantium saw his empire carved up.

It was 1075 when the Investiture Dispute began, where the Pope opposed kings appointing bishops to control. He had to threaten the ex-communication of kings, which only concluded in 1103. This was the start of the separation of church and state. In 1084, Emperor Henry IV deposed Pope Gregory VII and installed the first Anti-Pope Clement III who then crowned Henry Holy Roman Emperor. A revolution in 1094 resulted in Pope Urban II overthrowing the Anti-Pope and Henry lost power over Italy. But by 1111, Henry V captured the Pope, forced his settlement, and then crowned Henry V as Holy Roman Emperor. By 1112, the Church splits between Papal and Imperial supporters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

collapse, 2032, historical cycles, cycles, history, armstrong economics, martin armstrong,

Opinion v Fact

COMMENT: Marty,

Each day I read reports from so called reputable people expressing what they think might happen given the backdrop today. It is laughable. Most do this based on superficial analysis or cursory comparisons with things that appear to line up, appear to rhythm, to paraphrase M Twain. What a joke.

I say this here because as I relearn what I once thought I knew, analyze my mistakes using real data…it brings me back to you and your marvelous study of history, your database, which is incomparable, and your willingness…let’s call it humility, to let Socrates make the call. Just remarkable.

What this has done for me is save countless hours reading nonsense and instead focusing on the data. Not trying to push my opinions on a trade and expect the market will follow, but respect what is there and not force things. Nothing is absolute, no one is always right. But today there are so many people who are flat out wrong, who claim to be right…just give them time, it explains why the government fails repeatedly…because these are the people who, like Keynsians or socialists claim…just give it more money…it will work. Right. History always seems to tell a different story.

MS

REPLY: Thank you. What I try to get across is what I have learned from my clients. Because I was perhaps the only international analyst in foreign exchange back in the 70s and 80s, we ended up with the largest client base that was so diverse that it compelled me to look at the world through everyone else’s eyes. I remember doing an institutional conference in Zurich probably around 1982-1983. People started flying in to attend from around the world. There were people from the USA and Canada as well as Germany who traveled to Zurich.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Podcast Episode #38 – Can America Survive the Civil War Now Underway

Podcast Episode #38 – Can America Survive the Civil War Now Underway

The fires may be out for now, but they have not been fully extinguished. The Culture War of the past ten years has quickly exploded into a Civil War. It doesn’t matter that this explosion was amplified by agent provocateurs and cynical political operatives hoping to retain control over the power centers.

This cultural inversion, in the words of Jonathan Pageau, that we have been going through these past four years in response to the election of Donald Trump is accelerating quickly and will reach its zenith with the November election.

And in the cycle of human civilizations after inversion comes death. What kind of death will it be? And what kind of rebirth will occur on the other side of that.

…click on the above link to listen to the podcast…

Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning

Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning

US fourth turning

International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?

Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, The Fourth Turning, outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history.

What are your thoughts?

Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, Generations, when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant.

Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.

History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation—and we’re talking fourth century BC—can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.

Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.

Niccolò Machiavelli, in his Florentine Histories, said:

Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Turchin And The Coming Crisis Of The 2020s

Peter Turchin And The Coming Crisis Of The 2020s

Increasingly, social science is dominated by Leftist ideologues who use the remaining respect that academia still has among the public to inculcate students and public alike with their equalitarian dogmas. But there are honorable exceptions. One of these: Peter Turchin, a Russian who is professor of Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. Turchin, who did PhD at Duke University, applies his “hard science” training to the Woke world of social science, aiming to make clear and testable predictions about the cycles through which civilizations go. According to Turchin, the West is headed for trouble in the 2020s.

Turchin, who keeps a blog about civilization cycles, recently presented his latest findings to the Centre for Complex Systems Studies in Utrecht, Holland, under the heading “A History of the Near Future: What History Tells Us About the Near Future.” [PDF]His conclusions are startling. Based on his detailed number-crunching about events, civilizations that are in decline—as is the USA is—always enter periods of extreme polarization. For the USA, the 2020s will be that period. It will be marred by years of political violence, and intense conflict. Worryingly, Turchin claims that the U.S. more polarized that it was on the eve of the Civil War [ See his Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History].

Turchin argued in his Utrecht presentation that political instability in the USA and Western Europe in the 2020s will be of unparalleled severity, to the extent that it may well “undermine scientific progress.”

Turchin began his presentation by quoting himself from almost a decade ago already making this prediction, one which—in a world of Trump, Brexit and the rise of European “populism”—now seems extremely prescient.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons” – Interview with Michel Bauwens

“Every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons” – Interview with Michel Bauwens

The commons are nothing new. Historically citizens always came together to pool resources and manage them collectively and autonomously. It is the responsibility of cities and states to identify, connect and support them. Today the commons appear as a choice of society in a world at the end of its lifespan. A society where economic and productive systems will finally be compatible with the major planetary balances.

We increasingly speak of commons. “Common goods”, “creative commons”, “commonalities”…  What exactly are the commons about?

Michel Bauwens: The commons are three things at the same time: a resource (shared), a community (which maintains them) and precise principles of autonomous governance (to regulate them). These are very concrete things, which do not exist naturally but are the result of alliances between several parties. “There is no commons without commoning”. Examples are renewable energy cooperatives,  shared mobility projects, entities of shared knowledge, food cooperatives… 

In fact, we all have and create commons without knowing it, and have always done so… following more or less intense cycles of mutualization.

In fact, we all have and create commons without knowing it, and have always done so… following more or less intense cycles of mutualization.

If commoning follows cycles, where are we today?

M. B. : There are long, civilizational cycles and short, economic cycles. Regarding the former, every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons. Because when class societies disintegrate, when resources are overexploited and run out, pooling resources makes more and more sense. Today, we face a global environmental crisis that is giving rise to a resurgence of the commons. Yesterday it was the end of the Roman Empire, the crisis in Japan in the 12th century or in China in the 15th century… 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You are the only one with your computer that has correctly forecast the weather years in advance. I understand these are not some premonition of you on a personal level. That means putting the major trends together as you do actually produce results.

My hat’s off to you.

Cheers from bitterly cold UK

NG

REPLY: It is amazing to me that we are still in the Stone Age when it comes to forecasting even weather. You are correct. This is NOT based upon a personal intuition or opinion. I am merely reporting what the computer is forecasting and why. Sorry, nobody speaks to me in my dreams or anything. I cannot even pretend that my opinion is better than someone else’s. There is no room for personal opinions in such matters.

Nevertheless, at last, there are people finally starting to talk about solar minimum and the DEEP FREEZE. There has been extremely cold weather, a WARNING that is finally being heard. Solar minimum has ARRIVED and could last for more than a DECADE, as many are starting to warn. The problem with this reality is that weather is impacted by Mother Nature. Then people like Alexandria OcasioCortez demand higher taxes to create her Green New Deal outlawing air travel. Even the National Geographic is starting to remember the Deep Freeze of 1709. Even the BBC was forecasting a Deep Freeze. Others were calling it the “‘Beast from the East’ to plunge Europe into a historic deep freeze.”

The Twilight of the Intelligentsia

The Twilight of the Intelligentsia

I promise, I didn’t time this sequence of posts so that this one would come out the morning after one of the most bitterly fought midterm elections in memory.  Nor, of course, did I have advance notice of the outcome, though it wasn’t a surprise to me that the much-ballyhooed “blue wave” would flop as badly as it did.  In place of the sweeping rejection of Trump’s presidency that the Democratic Party called for, the usual first-term midterm reaction that brings the minority party back into power in Congress gave the Dems only a thin majority in the House of Representatives. Meanwhile they lost badly in the Senate, where an expanded Republican majority can continue to ratify Trump’s judicial nominees and block any attempt to use the constitutional mechanism of impeachment to remove him from office.

In the weeks ahead we’ll doubtless see any number of attempted analyses of what did or didn’t happen in the midterm elections, spinning an equivocal election to support one or the other side of a savagely divided electorate. Popcorn vendors will have plenty of business as those of us not committed to either of these two contending forces watch the posturing from a comfortable distance. Back beyond the momentary passions of politics and personalities move broader forces, and it’s important to try to sense those now, as the smoke of the election clears and it becomes possible, for those who are willing, to look past the present moment and catch some glimpse of the deeper cycles of history in which elections play a transient role.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe & Risk of Revolution

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr Armstrong, for your lifetime work. mindblowing as always.
I picture Europe now as Greece during the Roman Republic (before its conquest). isolated, corrupted to the core. And the US as the new Roman Republic. Will it become an empire after 2032?
Marius was the man of the people and in the end, he was defeated by Sylla (Senate if I m correct). But Marius’ idea was carried on by Cesar. Was he a socialist before the hour?
as a European, which side is the safest to pick when we will be dragged in the conflict???
thanks again!

best regards from France

ANSWER: Ironically, people may think history is just the past. The next time you watch Star Wars, look closer. It is about this very struggle of the people versus the Empire. Instead of swords, they fight with laser swords. If you look at the royal guard, they had cloaks and helmets much as the Romans were dressed. This is actually a saga that is repeated time and again throughout history. Pericles in Athens was charged and put on trial as they are trying to do with Trump. Today, we call it the Deep States. In Roman times, Caesar fought against the corrupt Senate who was the political party known as the Optimates.

You are correct, Marius lost. His coins refected the anti-establishment. You can see the female head of Italia, for which he was fighting. Caesar’s reputation has been distorted by the corrupt Optimates such as Cato and Cicero. Caesar was a man of the people, not a socialist, just an anti-establishment from the perspective of corruption. He too had to flee Rome under the dictatorship of Sulla who would have killed him much as Stalin killed anyone who might oppose him.

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Civil Unrest for 2018/2019 Post Election Cycle – The End of the United States?

QUESTION: I have followed you for many years and read you daily. To the point, I was looking at the riots in LA 1n 1965 and then the riots in 1992, that being 27 years so I divided that by 8.6 and got 3.14, so I backtested 27 years and found more race-related riots etc. Does this mean we will see riots in 2019?

TM

ANSWER: Yes. Our model is broader, and it extends back in time much further and incorporates all countries. This sort of civil unrest will rise in 2019 after the election cycle. It will not be just a race issue. It will be politically oriented and broader. Nonetheless, the Democrats will portray Trump and the Republicans as racists for the election fueling the fire of both race and class warfare.

We are preparing a report for the election cycle. This year is crazy. There are so many people in Congress calling it quits. The Republicans who will be defending 40 open House seats this fall compared with the Democrats’ 20 all because of retirement announcements. Even Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek election. What is going on is that there are those in politics who see the handwriting on the wall. Politics is doomed. Those retiring seem to comprehend that incumbents may lose this round for the Trump Revolution is spreading even to the Democrats with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 28-Year-Old Democratic in New York they call the  “Giant Slayer” because she was a bartender and unseated Representative Joseph Crowley, a 19-year incumbent, and Queens, New York’s political stalwart who had not faced a primary challenger in 14 years.

While the Democrats are cheering and claiming with 40 Republicans retiring it proves that Trump has destroyed their party. Of course, this is their perspective always focused on the hate the rich.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Depression then Hyperinflation Coming – Charles Nenner

Depression then Hyperinflation Coming – Charles Nenner


Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says don’t believe the Federal Reserve when it says it expects “the strong performance of the economy will continue.” According to Nenner, it’s about to go the other way—down. Nenner explains, “Definitely, later this year, the interest rates are going lower, and it could be much lower. We did work on all kinds of economic indicators. Employment is not going to be as good anymore as they say. Inflation is not going to be as strong as they expect. The commodity index is breaking down. Copper cycles are down. Crude oil cycles are down. Soon, everybody is going to wake up again and say hey, what’s going on? It is very interesting how Wall Street is approaching all the indicators. . . . If you do your homework, everything actually looks like the economy is weakening.”

How bad is this financial cycle going to get? Nenner is not afraid to use the “D” word. Nenner contends, “Still, the Fed talks like this could continue forever, and it’s the longest expansion. So, why do you think this time is going to be different? If you start with this low of GDP and interest rates and then you get to recession or depression, then you definitely get into at least disinflation.”

So, does Nenner see an actual depression coming soon? Nenner says, “Yeah, I have been saying that for many years. . . . Yes, if you look at the . . . long term cycles. Yes, we are going to a hyperinflation, but first, we are going to have a deflation scare. . . . We have one more scare of deflation before we get into real big inflation problems. It is a matter of timing. So, it could be a couple of years away.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Wheat & the Drought Cycle

QUESTION: Interesting that $1.3T US spending bill was enacted on March 23, 2018, exactly 31.459 years after passage of US Tax Reform Act of 1986:

Also, the 86 year cycle in drought conditions in the midwest US seems to approach – is this why Marty thinks wheat will bottom this year?

The below Wikipedia link mentions a “short drought” in 1890 in the US Great Plains, and then a dust storm on November 11, 1933, in South Dakota (43 years later). Wikipedia also mentions that the US Great Plains entered an unusually dry era in the summer of 1930 (a little more than 86 years ago), with droughts coming in 1934, 1936 and 1939-1940.

Kansas is having drought conditions currently:

Poor winter wheat condition worrying Kansas farmers

I wonder if this is the year to go long wheat, especially since Marty forecast a bottom for this year?

Best,
J

ANSWER: Here is a chart of Wheat from 1259 to 2017 with the currency converted to dollars from British pounds using the conversion rate at the beginning of the US dollar extending it back in time. Here we can see the overall trend. Yes, there is an influence with respect to weather. However, the Dust Bowl was a local event.

What our computer is warning about begins next year with a Directional Change in Wheat. This cycle appears to be impacted by (1) significant climate change, and (2) the War Cycle. The combination of both is pointing to a bull market in nominal dollar terms.

 

How Do We Really Forecast the Future?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that you have indeed been behind the curtain for your knowledge of even global politics is amazing. Kim Jong Un is here in Beijing. You said he would back down. You said the risk of war lies in the Middle East, not Korea. Your model calls the markets. You said the Dow would bounce for two days and then turn down. Even that took place today. Where do you begin and the computer ends?

UGH

ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.

The collapse of the Soviet Union came in 1991, that was a simple 2-year reactionary process all within a cyclical forecast. Now, the collapse of the Russian bond market which set in motion a major contagion and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle was determined from a capital flow and cyclical perspective. That came 8.6 years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. When that forecast made the front page of the second section of the FT, that is when even the CIA came. They suddenly realized that our model could forecast the rise and fall of nations. But that is also when the bankers began to complain to the CFTC and SEC that I was “manipulating” the world economy because they were all long Russian bonds and blamed me for their losses using the FT article as proof. They said I had too much “influence” rather than consider the possibility that just maybe we were able to forecast events that they thought bribing politicians would prevent.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What We Face Requires a Cyclical Perspective

 

To survive what we face clearly requires an open mind to understand that everything in nature moves through a cyclical pattern. The majority of people see the world only in a linear fashion. Politicians proclaim they can change the world and create perpetual prosperity and/or punish those that cause recessions. Naturally, there are no mirrors in government so the culprit must always exist outside of their shenanigans.

I often get the question WHAT IF everyone followed my work. The answer is simple. That is IMPOSSIBLE. That is like saying why can we all not just vote the same. There will never be a single political party that the people would vote for because there are differences of opinion. The majority of society ignores history because that is the past and somehow irrelevant because we are more sophisticated today and those people ran around in diapers chucking spears at each other. This merely ensures that history repeats because they are far too ignorant to comprehend that life is like a Shakespeare play. It has been performed for hundreds of years and the only thing that changes has been the actors.

Human society as a whole expects a linear life of happily ever after and when that fails, they advocate punishing the person responsible. They cannot dare investigate that just perhaps the world works in a far more complicated manner than just that.

Those who think only linear cannot avoid the crash and burn. Those who see the world cyclically understand there is a time and place for everything.

Worst Drought in Capetown in 112 Years – Part of the Cycle

QUESTION: Marty,

Any thoughts/comments regarding the impending water shortage in Capetown? As a person who has much historical knowledge, are you aware of a major city such as Capetown ever running out of water? Or is this truly a historical first?

Love your blog as it covers so much information and isn’t just corporate financial data like so many others.

Your loyal reader from

Alan.

ANSWER: South Africa will score this season the worse drought since 1904 right on schedule on the 112-year cycle (1/2 224). We must respect that the climate is changing back to a dry cold period and this has impacted South Africa. This is also part of the cycle we see with rising food prices into 2024. Just as we have seen the coldest periods in the USA back to 1899, we are witnessing the worst drought in Capetown also back to the same general period. Unfortunately, yes they can run out of water on this cycle. It will be a very close call.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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