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“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo.
“So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

J.R.R. Tolkien wrote his epic Lord of the Rings trilogy during the darkest days of World War II and in the midst of our last Fourth Turning Crisis. As a young man he had experienced the horror of war on the Western Front during World War I, where all but one of his best friends were killed. Tolkien’s novel documents the never ending battle between good and evil.

There are many moments of peril, where the future of Middle Earth depended upon the bravery, courage and tenacity of a few seemingly average hobbits. This was also true of various episodes during the Second World War where the fortitude and courage of the average man turned the tide at Midway, Stalingrad, Normandy, Guadalcanal, and many other battles.

It is becoming clear to me, we are on the verge of both a global war and likely civil war within a relatively short time frame. This is consistent with the expected timing based on previous Fourth Turning Crisis periods in history. Neil Howe, in his new book – The Fourth Turning is Here – also projects violence to increase over the next few years, with a a likely climax in the 2030 to 2033 time frame. The climax will reveal the clear winners and losers from the coming conflicts. Of course, the entire world could lose if the psychopaths calling the shots are insane enough to initiate Armageddon.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press

August 7, 2023

The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press

Winter has been coming for a very long time. Here’s why

The fascinating thing about “long wave” analysis (broadly defined to include Kondratieff waves, Elliott waves, and William Strauss and Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning) is that while each theory uses its own indicators and terminology to show how societies move through recurring cultural/psychological/financial stages, they’ve all reached the same conclusion: we’re toast.

The first decade of this century marked the theoretical end of an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle — and of an even bigger wave that began in the Dark Ages…

…the start of Kondratiff winter…

…and the beginning of a Fourth “Crisis” Turning. As Strauss and Howe put it in 1997:

Around the year 2005 [give or take a few years], a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire.…Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II….The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, total war…

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Greater Depression: We’ve somehow kept it together, inflating the 2000s housing bubble and, when that burst, replacing it with the everything bubble. Policymakers, talking heads, and most investors (judging by the past year’s stock market action) seem to think that a normal recovery is underway and that a crash remains a low-probability event.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Who Will Save Us From Ourselves?

January 9, 2023

Who Will Save Us From Ourselves?

We have the capacity to learn from previous civilization’s errors–rising inequality, hubris, over-reach, decay of production and trade, parasitic elites, and so on–yet we go right ahead and repeat those same errors.

After listening to my explanation of the many cycles human civilizations track first to glory and then to decay, podcast host Tommy Carrigan asked a key question: why don’t we stop ourselves from self-destructing? Tommy and I had a free-range conversation on this and related topics (plus a lot of laughs) that you can listen to here: UFOs & Cycles of Humanity (1:36 hrs)

What explains our inability to learn from history and take corrective actions by maintaining the dynamics of adaptive advances? (Transparent governance, the sharing of knowledge, incentivizing trade and enterprise, competition, stable money, rule of law / fairness, social mobility and limits on elites’ plundering / exploitation.)

Why do we allow the decay, over-reach, greed, hubris, institutional sclerosis and parasitic elites that lead to collapse gain the upper hand time and again? Why do we not act on what can be learned from history?

For those of us steeped in science fiction and the study of AI, this question inevitably leads to discussions of the potential immutability of historic cycles (Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy, which posited that cycles could not be annulled but the decay/collapse phase could be reduced in duration), the deus ex machina of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations and the potential of super-intelligent AI to save us from ourselves.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner

May 24, 2022

Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his analysis shows the world will start a huge war cycle by 2023. This type of war is similar to WWII but much bigger. Nenner explains, “The cycle work I do on wars starts at the Mandarin Empire 3,000 years before Jesus came into this world. The long cycle only picks up the big wars. Wars in Korea and Iraq do not show up. So, I say the big War Cycle is up, and this is going to be a big war because the small ones don’t even show up. So, I am very worried. . . . There was a Jewish prophet that once said, ‘The last war is going to take 8 minutes.’ Nobody took this serious because how can a war last 8 minutes? Now we have an idea why a war can only take 8 minutes. Things could calm down in the short term this summer. Then, next year, it can start full force again, and the whole thing is very dangerous.”

How many casualties will there be in the next world war? Nenner estimates, “It’s very interesting how you calculate something like that. It’s the same way you calculate a cycle in IBM. When you see IBM going down, you can get an upside price target, which we have. You can do the same thing on the war cycle. About one third of the population is not going to survive in this world.”

So, more than 2.5 billion people are going to die in the next world war that is just around the corner? Nenner says, “Yes, the numbers say if you have a world war, it’s going to take out 1/3 of the population.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Young People Turn To Collectivism Because Of These Psychological Disparities

December 10, 2021

Young People Turn To Collectivism Because Of These Psychological Disparities

Are Americans changing with the times, are the times changing with Americans, or, has nothing really changed at all in the past century?

Before we dive into this discussion it’s important to understand one thing above all else – There is nothing new under the sun. Every “new” political movement or cultural upheaval has happened a thousand times or more in the past. Every “new” form of governance is just a rehashed version of a system that came before it. Every “new” economic structure is one of a handful of preexisting and ever repeating trade methodologies. Every “new” revolution and rebellion is a fight for the same basic goals against the same persistent foes that have always existed since the dawn of civilization. All of human history can be condensed down to a few fundamental and irreconcilable differences, desires, values and ambitions.

This cycle of events is a kind of historical furnace where people and nations are forged. Most go through life without any inkling of the whirlwind; they think the things happening to them are unique and unprecedented. Maybe if human beings lived longer lives they would realize how common such conflicts are and view the repetition with less panic.

The so called “disenfranchised” feel overwhelmed by the tides and completely devoid of any influence over the future. Then there are those that have the ability to see the story unfold. There are those that try to control it and use it to their advantage. There are those that are trying desperately to escape it, even at the cost of reason and sanity. And, there are those that take truly individual action and make history rather than simply being caught up in it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next? (PT1)

October 18, 2021

Neil Howe On The Fourth Turning: How Bad Will It Get, How Long Will It Last & What Comes Next? (PT1)

They say history rhymes.

That civilizations and societies tend to follow cycles — boom/bust, feast/famine, war/peace, cultural experimentation/a retrenchment to the “old ways”.

Neil Howe, the author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning, lays out his prediction that today’s society has entered the “bust” part of our current cycle — where the status quo falls apart — often chaotically — to be replaced by a new, hopefully better, order.

Howe explains why the weight of history strongly suggests we are headed into a decade-plus period of economic and social disruption that will transform our political, economic, financial and social systems.

Volatility will reign. Crushing inflation looks likely. We may see a stock market crash and widespread job losses. Perhaps even war.

But as with all preceding fourth turnings, Howe predicts we’ll come of it ok. Yes, with some bruises; but likely also with some net improvements for society.

What should we expect from this period of disruption? Are there steps we can take to improve our odds of persevering?

Neil provides very detailed answers in this interview…

What is 2032?

March 30, 2021

What is 2032?

Many people have asked, “Why is 2032 going to be such a major change in the world’s political economy and society as a whole?”

We are confronted by the end of the Sixth Wave come 2032, which will be a profound economic and political change. It appears these world leaders are pushing us toward fulfilling the vision of Kalus Schwab and his distorted view of how society functions. While the first wave marked the collapse of Rome, 794 marked the collapse of the Nara period in Japan as the capital then moved to Kyoto. That would last until 1185 AD when government was overthrown, marking the birth of the Shogun Period (military general authority). The Great Seljuk Turkish Empire had its origins, with its first capital in 1037. By 1092, the Seljuk Empire was at its greatest upon Malik Shah I’s death and had captured most of the Byzantine Empire, creating the Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 in Constantinople. Alexius I (1081-1118AD) of Byzantium saw his empire carved up.

It was 1075 when the Investiture Dispute began, where the Pope opposed kings appointing bishops to control. He had to threaten the ex-communication of kings, which only concluded in 1103. This was the start of the separation of church and state. In 1084, Emperor Henry IV deposed Pope Gregory VII and installed the first Anti-Pope Clement III who then crowned Henry Holy Roman Emperor. A revolution in 1094 resulted in Pope Urban II overthrowing the Anti-Pope and Henry lost power over Italy. But by 1111, Henry V captured the Pope, forced his settlement, and then crowned Henry V as Holy Roman Emperor. By 1112, the Church splits between Papal and Imperial supporters.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

collapse, 2032, historical cycles, cycles, history, armstrong economics, martin armstrong,

Opinion v Fact

February 10, 2021

Opinion v Fact

COMMENT: Marty,

Each day I read reports from so called reputable people expressing what they think might happen given the backdrop today. It is laughable. Most do this based on superficial analysis or cursory comparisons with things that appear to line up, appear to rhythm, to paraphrase M Twain. What a joke.

I say this here because as I relearn what I once thought I knew, analyze my mistakes using real data…it brings me back to you and your marvelous study of history, your database, which is incomparable, and your willingness…let’s call it humility, to let Socrates make the call. Just remarkable.

What this has done for me is save countless hours reading nonsense and instead focusing on the data. Not trying to push my opinions on a trade and expect the market will follow, but respect what is there and not force things. Nothing is absolute, no one is always right. But today there are so many people who are flat out wrong, who claim to be right…just give them time, it explains why the government fails repeatedly…because these are the people who, like Keynsians or socialists claim…just give it more money…it will work. Right. History always seems to tell a different story.

REPLY: Thank you. What I try to get across is what I have learned from my clients. Because I was perhaps the only international analyst in foreign exchange back in the 70s and 80s, we ended up with the largest client base that was so diverse that it compelled me to look at the world through everyone else’s eyes. I remember doing an institutional conference in Zurich probably around 1982-1983. People started flying in to attend from around the world. There were people from the USA and Canada as well as Germany who traveled to Zurich.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Podcast Episode #38 – Can America Survive the Civil War Now Underway

June 14, 2020

Podcast Episode #38 – Can America Survive the Civil War Now Underway

The fires may be out for now, but they have not been fully extinguished. The Culture War of the past ten years has quickly exploded into a Civil War. It doesn’t matter that this explosion was amplified by agent provocateurs and cynical political operatives hoping to retain control over the power centers.

This cultural inversion, in the words of Jonathan Pageau, that we have been going through these past four years in response to the election of Donald Trump is accelerating quickly and will reach its zenith with the November election.

And in the cycle of human civilizations after inversion comes death. What kind of death will it be? And what kind of rebirth will occur on the other side of that.

…click on the above link to listen to the podcast…

Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning

February 22, 2020

Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning

International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?

Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, The Fourth Turning, outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history.

What are your thoughts?

Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, Generations, when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant.

Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.

History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.

Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation—and we’re talking fourth century BC—can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.

Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.

Niccolò Machiavelli, in his Florentine Histories, said:

Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Turchin And The Coming Crisis Of The 2020s

November 20, 2019

Peter Turchin And The Coming Crisis Of The 2020s

Increasingly, social science is dominated by Leftist ideologues who use the remaining respect that academia still has among the public to inculcate students and public alike with their equalitarian dogmas. But there are honorable exceptions. One of these: Peter Turchin, a Russian who is professor of Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. Turchin, who did PhD at Duke University, applies his “hard science” training to the Woke world of social science, aiming to make clear and testable predictions about the cycles through which civilizations go. According to Turchin, the West is headed for trouble in the 2020s.

Turchin, who keeps a blog about civilization cycles, recently presented his latest findings to the Centre for Complex Systems Studies in Utrecht, Holland, under the heading “A History of the Near Future: What History Tells Us About the Near Future.” [PDF]His conclusions are startling. Based on his detailed number-crunching about events, civilizations that are in decline—as is the USA is—always enter periods of extreme polarization. For the USA, the 2020s will be that period. It will be marred by years of political violence, and intense conflict. Worryingly, Turchin claims that the U.S. more polarized that it was on the eve of the Civil War [ See his Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History].

Turchin argued in his Utrecht presentation that political instability in the USA and Western Europe in the 2020s will be of unparalleled severity, to the extent that it may well “undermine scientific progress.”

Turchin began his presentation by quoting himself from almost a decade ago already making this prediction, one which—in a world of Trump, Brexit and the rise of European “populism”—now seems extremely prescient.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons” – Interview with Michel Bauwens

October 30, 2019

“Every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons” – Interview with Michel Bauwens

The commons are nothing new. Historically citizens always came together to pool resources and manage them collectively and autonomously. It is the responsibility of cities and states to identify, connect and support them. Today the commons appear as a choice of society in a world at the end of its lifespan. A society where economic and productive systems will finally be compatible with the major planetary balances.

‍We increasingly speak of commons. “Common goods”, “creative commons”, “commonalities”… What exactly are the commons about?

Michel Bauwens: The commons are three things at the same time: a resource (shared), a community (which maintains them) and precise principles of autonomous governance (to regulate them). These are very concrete things, which do not exist naturally but are the result of alliances between several parties. “There is no commons without commoning”. Examples are renewable energy cooperatives, shared mobility projects, entities of shared knowledge, food cooperatives…

In fact, we all have and create commons without knowing it, and have always done so… following more or less intense cycles of mutualization.

In fact, we all have and create commons without knowing it, and have always done so… following more or less intense cycles of mutualization.

If commoning follows cycles, where are we today?

M. B. : There are long, civilizational cycles and short, economic cycles. Regarding the former, every time a civilization is in crisis, there is a return of the commons. Because when class societies disintegrate, when resources are overexploited and run out, pooling resources makes more and more sense. Today, we face a global environmental crisis that is giving rise to a resurgence of the commons. Yesterday it was the end of the Roman Empire, the crisis in Japan in the 12th century or in China in the 15th century…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin

February 14, 2019

At Last – Solar Minimum Discussions Begin

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; You are the only one with your computer that has correctly forecast the weather years in advance. I understand these are not some premonition of you on a personal level. That means putting the major trends together as you do actually produce results.

My hat’s off to you.

Cheers from bitterly cold UK

REPLY: It is amazing to me that we are still in the Stone Age when it comes to forecasting even weather. You are correct. This is NOT based upon a personal intuition or opinion. I am merely reporting what the computer is forecasting and why. Sorry, nobody speaks to me in my dreams or anything. I cannot even pretend that my opinion is better than someone else’s. There is no room for personal opinions in such matters.

Nevertheless, at last, there are people finally starting to talk about solar minimum and the DEEP FREEZE. There has been extremely cold weather, a WARNING that is finally being heard. Solar minimum has ARRIVED and could last for more than a DECADE, as many are starting to warn. The problem with this reality is that weather is impacted by Mother Nature. Then people like Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez demand higher taxes to create her Green New Deal outlawing air travel. Even the National Geographic is starting to remember the Deep Freeze of 1709. Even the BBC was forecasting a Deep Freeze. Others were calling it the “‘Beast from the East’ to plunge Europe into a historic deep freeze.”

The Twilight of the Intelligentsia

November 8, 2018

The Twilight of the Intelligentsia

I promise, I didn’t time this sequence of posts so that this one would come out the morning after one of the most bitterly fought midterm elections in memory. Nor, of course, did I have advance notice of the outcome, though it wasn’t a surprise to me that the much-ballyhooed “blue wave” would flop as badly as it did. In place of the sweeping rejection of Trump’s presidency that the Democratic Party called for, the usual first-term midterm reaction that brings the minority party back into power in Congress gave the Dems only a thin majority in the House of Representatives. Meanwhile they lost badly in the Senate, where an expanded Republican majority can continue to ratify Trump’s judicial nominees and block any attempt to use the constitutional mechanism of impeachment to remove him from office.

In the weeks ahead we’ll doubtless see any number of attempted analyses of what did or didn’t happen in the midterm elections, spinning an equivocal election to support one or the other side of a savagely divided electorate. Popcorn vendors will have plenty of business as those of us not committed to either of these two contending forces watch the posturing from a comfortable distance. Back beyond the momentary passions of politics and personalities move broader forces, and it’s important to try to sense those now, as the smoke of the election clears and it becomes possible, for those who are willing, to look past the present moment and catch some glimpse of the deeper cycles of history in which elections play a transient role.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe & Risk of Revolution

October 29, 2018

Europe & Risk of Revolution

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr Armstrong, for your lifetime work. mindblowing as always.
I picture Europe now as Greece during the Roman Republic (before its conquest). isolated, corrupted to the core. And the US as the new Roman Republic. Will it become an empire after 2032?
Marius was the man of the people and in the end, he was defeated by Sylla (Senate if I m correct). But Marius’ idea was carried on by Cesar. Was he a socialist before the hour?
as a European, which side is the safest to pick when we will be dragged in the conflict???
thanks again!

best regards from France

ANSWER: Ironically, people may think history is just the past. The next time you watch Star Wars, look closer. It is about this very struggle of the people versus the Empire. Instead of swords, they fight with laser swords. If you look at the royal guard, they had cloaks and helmets much as the Romans were dressed. This is actually a saga that is repeated time and again throughout history. Pericles in Athens was charged and put on trial as they are trying to do with Trump. Today, we call it the Deep States. In Roman times, Caesar fought against the corrupt Senate who was the political party known as the Optimates.

You are correct, Marius lost. His coins refected the anti-establishment. You can see the female head of Italia, for which he was fighting. Caesar’s reputation has been distorted by the corrupt Optimates such as Cato and Cicero. Caesar was a man of the people, not a socialist, just an anti-establishment from the perspective of corruption. He too had to flee Rome under the dictatorship of Sulla who would have killed him much as Stalin killed anyone who might oppose him.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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