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Financial Forecast 2025-2032: Please Don’t Be Naive
Financial Forecast 2025-2032: Please Don’t Be Naive Rather than attempt to evade Caesar’s reach, a better strategy might be to ‘go gray’: blend in, appear average. Let’s start by stipulating that I don’t “like” this forecast. I’m not “talking my book” (for example, promoting nuclear power because I own shares in a uranium mine) or issuing […]
Why Recession Is Imminent, In Three Charts
Why Recession Is Imminent, In Three Charts Any one of these would be enough to make the case The idea that the world’s central banks can inflate the biggest financial bubble in human history — appropriately called the everything bubble — and then deflate it gently into a soft landing is mathematically and philosophically impossible. […]
Everything bubble’s end game
Everything bubble’s end game The S&P 500 closed 2021 at a new all-time high, indicating that the ongoing central bank monetary experiment is nowhere near winding down: We got used to this… but it’s actually a staggering image! For years now, we’ve seen many compelling analyses, usually based on valuation issues or macroeconomic risks, predicting […]
The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022
The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022 Photo by Javier Quiroga This year was a doozy. Right out of the gate, millionaires were sounding the alarm that the markets were looking overvalued while reducing their risk exposure. In February we got a taste of what could be the […]
The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst
The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner. A caveat is in […]
Could The Fed Trigger The Next “Financial Crisis”
Could The Fed Trigger The Next “Financial Crisis” Could the Fed trigger the next “financial crisis” as they begin to hike interest rates? Such is certainly a question worth asking as we look back at the Fed’s history of previous monetary actions. Such was a topic I discussed in “Investors Push Risk Bets.” To wit: “With the entirety […]
Will China Pop the Global Everything Bubble? Yes
Will China Pop the Global Everything Bubble? Yes The line of dominoes that is already toppling extends around the entire global economy and financial system. Plan accordingly. That China faces structural problems is well-recognized. The list of articles in the August issue of Foreign Affairs dedicated to China reflects this: Xi’s Gamble: the Race to Consolidate Power and […]
The Market Crash Nobody Thinks Is Possible Is Coming
The Market Crash Nobody Thinks Is Possible Is Coming The banquet of consequences is being served, and risk-off crashes are, like revenge, best served cold. The ideal setup for a crash is a consensus that a crash is impossible–in other words, just like the present: sure, there are carefully measured murmurings about a “correction” but nobody […]
Evergrande Contagion Threatens to Collapse the Everything Bubble
Evergrande Contagion Threatens to Collapse the Everything Bubble Photo by Hyunwon Jang “Evergrande, a real-estate colossus in China, is collapsing. Don’t expect the collapse to be contained to China. The global macro implications are huge.” – Mike Shedlock The U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of a financial shotgun thanks to the Chinese real estate bubble that […]
Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble?
Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble? Can extremes become too extreme to continue higher? We’re about to find out. Is anyone willing to call the top of the Everything bubble? The short answer is no. Anyone earning money managing other people’s money cannot afford to be wrong, and so everyone in […]
Here’s How ‘Everything Bubbles’ Pop
Here’s How ‘Everything Bubbles’ Pop But weirdly, and irrationally, bubbles pop anyway. At long last, the moment you’ve been hoping for has arrived: you’re pitching your screenplay to a producer. Your agent is cautious but you’re confident nobody else has concocted a story as outlandish as yours. Your agent gives you the nod and you’re off […]
The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money
The Everything Bubble and What it Means for Your Money In the aftermath of the Black Plague which swept across Europe between 1347 and 1353, wiping out between 30 and 60% of the population, the European economy changed dramatically. Source: Jeremy Norman – HistoryofInformation.com The Black Plague had a lasting socioeconomic impact; for example, towns […]
We’re in a Bubble that’s Too Big To Fail
We’re in a Bubble that’s Too Big To Fail I’ve been hearing the phrase “Everything Bubble” come up more often lately. This isn’t a new phrase, Graham Summers was among the first to coin it in his 2017 book “The Everything Bubble: The Endgame for Central Bank Policy”: “The Everything Bubble chronicles the creation and evolution […]
Culmination of Fed Interventions Inflates Historic “Everything Bubble”
Culmination of Fed Interventions Inflates Historic “Everything Bubble” via HistoryDaily We reported on last year’s partial deflation of the “everything bubble,” aided in part by the COVID-19 pandemic and erratic response to it. But it could be a bit premature to consider that partial crash a singular event, followed by another period of economic recovery. In fact […]
