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Culmination of Fed Interventions Inflates Historic “Everything Bubble”

We reported on last year’s partial deflation of the “everything bubble,” aided in part by the COVID-19 pandemic and erratic response to it.

But it could be a bit premature to consider that partial crash a singular event, followed by another period of economic recovery.

In fact things seem a lot worse economically, and this time in the worst way possible. At The Hill, Desmond Lachman describes how the U.S. may have reached the end of the economic road:

Herb Stein famously said that if something cannot go on forever it will stop. He might very well have been talking about today’s everything bubble in U.S. and world financial markets, which has largely been fueled by the Federal Reserve’s extraordinarily easy monetary policy.

The “everything bubble” Lachman refers to is easy to see in the current Shiller Price Earnings Ratio. It’s higher than the 1929 Depression, and on a trajectory towards “dot-com bust” levels from 2000. You can see for yourself on the latest Shiller PE chart below:

Everything Bubble: Shiller Price Earnings Ratio Chart

Schiller PE measures the price to average earnings from the past ten years. Today, on average, an investor pays $34.87 to secure $1 annual earnings.

Both of the past economic peaks, the Great Depression and the Dot-com crash, were “everything bubbles”. Today’s Shiller PE ratio has already surpassed Black Tuesday‘s…

You’ve seen charts before – why care about this one? A few reasons: its inventor, Robert J. Shiller, won the 2013 Nobel Prize for economics (and a bucket of other prizes). He’s been on the list of 100 most influential economists in the world since 2008. His book Irrational Exuberance came out in March 2000, warning that the stock market was in a bubble. (He was right.) Almost exactly one year before Lehman Brothers collapsed, Shiller authored a prescient warning – here’s the summary:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Rabobank: The Everything Bubble Has Become More Everything And More Bubble

Rabobank: The Everything Bubble Has Become More Everything And More Bubble

Oh-No-Bi-Wan Kenobi

For those who haven’t seen it –and I accept there are now probably many readers who haven’t– there is a classic scene in the first Star Wars film (Episode IV) in which Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi tells his villainous duelling opponent, his former apprentice, Darth Vader: “You can’t win, Darth. If you strike me down, I will become more powerful than you can possible imagine.” Darth being Darth of course strikes him down: and Kenobi disappears entirely, leaving only his outer garment (but no shoes or underpants, etc.). So it looks like Darth has won the fight. Except Kenobi goes on to become an immortal ‘Force ghost’, who like a happier Banquo, helps guide Darth’s son to blow up the mega battle-station he has until then been prowling up and down menacingly.

We are less than a month into the Biden administration, and despite a slight down-day for stocks on Tuesday, it is quite clear, according to a slew of commentators, that the Everything Bubble has become more Everything and more Bubble. The Federal Reserve and other global central banks are still pouring their fully operational firepower into the economy, fully aware that little of this flows to productive assets or wages, and most of it to speculation: but when financial/asset speculation IS most of the ‘economy’, that looks like victory to them. Indeed, doesn’t it feel like victory to those who speak Bloombergian? There is more money than ever; a major global airline has decided you don’t have to wear masks in business or first class on long-haul flights; and the luxury Maldives is seeing record hotel occupancy!

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter

Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter

Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01, we can predict a remarkable reversal.

The “Everything Bubble” has been a sight to behold. With central banks providing trillions to the big players and margin debt enabling small punters to leverage up, the hot money rotation has been a real merry-go-round as one asset and sector after another is ignited by a massive flood of money seeking a quick return.

Once the hot sector has been slingshot to absurd heights, the hot money abandons it in favor of whatever hasn’t been shot into orbit.

Bat guano is the new Tesla–or maybe it’s Beanie Babies pulled out of attics, or sand. The sand index could be the next moonshot, who knows?

There’s an interesting self-referential, self reinforcing dynamic in manic bubbles. As everyone sees other “regular folks” scoring massive gains from doing nothing but buying what everyone else is buying, the temptation to join the orgy of easy money becomes irresistible.

This new money adds momentum to the hot-money rotation, accelerating the moves and the gains. In other words, the easy money just keeps getting easier.

This feeds an irresistible compulsion to leverage up–to borrow money and throw it into the 100% guaranteed-to-rise market. Once debt has been maxxed out, then punters discover options and leveraged ETFs as avenues to increase the 100% guaranteed gains.

To chart this self-reinforcing momentum in sentiment and hot money, I’ve prepared this “Everything Bubble” Bubble-o-Meter. Clearly, we’re at the very top: there’s no fear except of missing out. Buy the dip has yielded 100% guaranteed returns, with the proviso that the more you”invest” (heh), the more you make, and the more leverage you take on, the greater your gains.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Pandemic, Lockdowns, Fake and Manipulated Markets – Gold and Silver Outlook

Pandemic, Lockdowns, Fake and Manipulated Markets – Gold and Silver Outlook

Watch Video Update (Live 12/05/2020

 The massive global debt driven “Everything Bubble” is bursting due to the pandemic and more specifically the governments draconian economic lockdowns

◆ A dollar crisis is inevitable with U.S. government debt surging by some $2 trillion in a matter of weeks and ballooning to over $25 trillion

◆ Wall Street has just been bailed out at the expense of Main Street and families and businesses in the U.S. and throughout most of the industrial world


◆ Gold and particularly silver remain good value for those looking for safe havens to hedge the risk of financial dislocations and collapse

◆ Due to ongoing price manipulation in the futures market they have yet to price in the scale of the coming crisis; silver is actually lower despite massive demand as seen in a surge in silver ETF holdings, shortages of silver coins and bars and elevated premiums on gold but particularly silver

◆ This is much more than a “logistics” issue and is more due to actual shortages of physical metal from mines, mints and refineries and very strong global demand

◆ Gold and silver, if owned in the safest of ways, will protect people, families and companies in the coming global financial and monetary crisis


◆ Open an account with GoldCore here

◆ All the best from Stephen, Mark and the team. Be well!

Gold in USD – 3 Days

NEWS and COMMENTARY

31 Gold and Silver Charts – Demand Will Soar and Gold Will Surge Once It Surpasses $1,900/oz (GoldChartsRUs)

“This event coming into play just prior to taking out all time highs at $1900 after which one could expect the prices to accelerate & demand soar.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Enslavement of Infinite Money

The Enslavement of Infinite Money

money addiction

The phrase “don’t fight the Fed” is an unfortunate but popular delusion. It presupposes that the central bank has limitless power to direct the economy because it can print limitless money. I’m not sure where this idea comes from, but consider the fact that anyone today who is under 30 years old was barely old enough in 2008 to understand or care about the credit collapse. These people spent their formative years knowing only stimulus and QE. In their minds, this is the norm, and they think it always works because they haven’t yet witnessed a collapse.

I would say a better phrase for the 2020s is “The Fed is not going to save you”; the Fed is not a superhero and it does not have the power nor the inclination to protect the little people from economic folly. This should be readily apparent today, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread and the central bank can’t seem to cure it with Quantitative Easing.

My position has always been that the Fed has no intention of saving the economy, only making it appear as if they care. This is evident in the fact that they created the Everything Bubble in the first place with years of near zero interest rates, then abruptly hiked interest rates into economic weakness, just like they did during the Great Depression. All it took was a few rate increases to cause stock markets to plunge in December 2018; liquidity was strangled and repo markets became unstable. Jerome Powell knew perfectly well that this would be the result; he openly discussed it in the minutes of the October 2012 Federal Open Market Committee.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fed Cut Back on Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy

Fed Cut Back on Helicopter Money for Wall Street & the Wealthy

Tapered QE-4 Further, Still Hasn’t Bought Junk Bonds or ETFs, Was Just Jawboning.

Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet rose by $205 billion during the week ending April 22, to $6.57 trillion. Since the week ending March 11, when the bailout of the Everything Bubble and its holders began, the Fed has printed $2.26 trillion.

But the $205 billion increase was the smallest increase since the mega-bailout began with its Sunday March 15 announcement. The Fed is tapering its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Repurchase agreements (repos) are falling into disuse. Lending to Special Purposes Vehicles (SPVs) has leveled off. And foreign central bank liquidity swaps, after having spiked initially, only ticked up by a small-ish amount.

The sharply reduced increases confirm that the Fed is following its various announcements over the past two years that during the next crisis – namely now – it would front-load the bailout QE and after the initial blast would then taper it out of existence, rather than let it drag out for years.

This concept was further confirmed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on April 10 when he said that the Fed would pack away its emergency tools when “private markets and institutions are once again able to perform their vital functions of channeling credit and supporting economic growth.”

Overall, the Fed has cut the big QE purchases by 65% since the peak week (week ending April 1, $586 billion), to $205 billion:

Purchases of Treasury securities get slashed.

The Fed added $120 billion of Treasury securities to its balance sheet, the smallest amount since this began, down 67% from the $362 billion it had added during the peak week:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

VIDEO: The Coronavirus Is The Pin Popping The ‘Everything Bubble’

VIDEO: The Coronavirus Is The Pin Popping The ‘Everything Bubble’

This will be an extinction-level event for many players

For years, Peak Prosperity has been raising a loud warning of the ‘Everything Bubble’ that the world’s central banks have blown in global asset prices.

Over that time, we’ve debated with hundreds of economic experts on what will be the trigger to “pop” this mania.

Well, now we’re finding out.

The economic damage being wrought worldwide by the coronavirus is the black swan the system never saw coming. Trade is being strangled, and the necessary productivity needed to support that massive increase in global debt that has been taken on over the past decade is just not there.

Bankruptcies are set to ripple across industries like wildfire. Mass layoffs will return with a vengeance. For certain industries — like travel, hospitality, and the shale oil drillers — this will be an extinction-level event for many players.

As ugly as the swift -19% drop in markets from from February’s highs has been, this is just the start of the reckoning, folks.

To give you a clear understanding what to expect during the bursting of the largest asset bubble in world history, Chris rushed to record this interview with John Rubino, author of The Money Bubble:

For those wondering what practical steps to take with their money as the Everything Bubble bursts: while Chris and John were recording, I was busy interviewing the lead partners from New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor.

In the short video below, they offer their seasoned take on the current market action, what they see as most likely to happen from here, and what they recommend investors consider now:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We’ve Reached The Tipping Point” – Guggenheim’s Minerd Warns Virus Will Deflate The Everything Bubble

“We’ve Reached The Tipping Point” – Guggenheim’s Minerd Warns Virus Will Deflate The Everything Bubble

Last week, Guggenheim’s Global CIO Scott Minerd exclaimed that “the cognitive dissonance in the market is stunning,” as he reflected on the ever-rising stock prices (and collapsing credit spreads) he was seeing in the face of growing global fears of the virus’ spread.

And as the market began to waken from its dissonant slumber, he warned:

“This is not a buy-the-dip market. It is a don’t-catch-a-falling-knife market. “

As he detailed to CNBC the threat the coronavirus poses to corporate earnings and the U.S. economy if the pandemic spreads.

And now, after an unprecedented collapse in stock prices and Treasury yields, Minerd details his portfolio positioning with coronavirus on the brink of pandemic.

The impact of the coronavirus has made for a crazy couple of weeks in the financial markets. Now spreading beyond Italy into other parts of Europe, it is on the brink of a pandemic and investors, fearing a sharp slowdown in global growth, have reacted by taking out support for yields for the long bond and the 10-year Treasury note. Bonds are comfortably below 2 percent and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.3 percent. Unlikely as it may seem, technical analysis now indicates a target yield on the 30-year bond at 1 percent and the 10-year note at 0.25 percent. Stocks are nearing correction territory, with more downside likely.

At the same time that long Treasury yields are making new historic lows, credit spreads, while widening, remain relatively tight. This does not make any sense given the fundamental backdrop which indicate that defaults will rise significantly, particularly in energy, airlines, retailing, and hospitality. Nevertheless, central bank liquidity continues to drive flows into bonds at a record pace. These flows are keeping spreads tight and, until there is an interruption of the inflows, credit spreads will be contained.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EVERYTHING but Bullion & Commodity BUBBLE

EVERYTHING but Bullion & Commodity BUBBLE

I am going to start with something you hopefully can intuit as factual.

Flacid fiat currency values in the aggregate, remain in their greatest bubble of all time. 

How do we know this?!

Because gold bullion is nowhere near what the parasitical establishment will predictably and way too early describe as being in some valuation ‘bubble.’

The coming gold bubble conversation is a moot talking point until at least we clear $4,000 oz in fiat USD valued currently (see the now fiat monetary base vs claimed US Gold Reserves chart below).

In other words, gold has not taken the fiat $USD and almost none of the other +180 fiat currencies entirely to the woodshed, just yet.

Strange, given that global and US fiat currency creation has never been more reckless and speedy than perhaps the first-two- and third QEs following the 2008 financial crisis.

Again fiat Feds are clogging the financial system with more debased we cannot believe its not-QE4 overnight REPO injections. 

Wondering in writing below.

The BIS’ FSB ‘s #1 Bank Bail-In threat remains JP Morgan. That’s a verifiable fact.

Now we wonder if JP Morgan walked away from the REPO market in revenge for their precious metals desk getting US DoJ RICO’d?

Mid-September 2019 timing looks like a match. Bail-ins cannot come soon enough.

One has to go back to early 1980 precious metal bull market peak, back to when especially early 1980 gold prices were making central bank fiat currencies tell their inherent truth.

We are further still now wallowing in fiat valued delusions. Just awaiting the supposed US gold reserves to account from +40 to 100% vs. fiat Fed notes issued currently.

Here is the fiat Federal Reserve note’s ongoing levitation versus all the Official Gold Reserves the USA supposedly holds at the moment. There are trillions of rationalizations for why gold will be rocketing higher in value soon.

EVERYTHING but Bullion & Commodity BUBBLE

Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020?

Will Coronavirus Be the Black Swan that Pops the Bubble of Everything in 2020?

Will coronavirus be the Black Swan that brings down the global economy in 2020? In my article, “The Things We Believe That are Untrue”, I discussed how governments worldwide have been hiding recessionary numbers from global citizens since 2008.  Consequently, with the world economy already so weak, if coronavirus causes substantially slower economic growth rates, it could serve as the pin that finally pops the unsustainable Bubble of Everything. 

So what is the coronavirus, and is the media concern surrounding it justified? A coronavirus is a type of normally mild virus that causes non-lethal respiratory viruses, but sometimes can be lethal, as has been the case with the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China. The particular trait that makes coronavirus especially sinister, however, is that, unlike its previous siblings of SARS and MERS, the Wuhan coronavirus is contagious during its asymptomatic incubation period of one to fourteen days, and therefore, can be transmitted from carriers that appear to be healthy although they already have been infected. Consequently, because its method of transmission is so stealth, it is truly difficult to assess how many people have been infected, even though media reports put the number at 2,000 to 4,000 with 100 dead thus far.

Since the transmission rate has been estimated at 2.5 people for every infected person, and the asymptomatic incubation period is up to two weeks, with 2,000 to 4,000 symptomatic people reported, realistically, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands of people could potentially be already infected, depending upon the rate of transmission from infected to non-infected. Furthermore, with many Chinese traveling outside of China for the long Lunar New Year holiday, there really is no way to estimate, at the current time, how many others outside of China have been infected with the Wuhan coronavirus.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is A Train Wreck In Slow Motion

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is A Train Wreck In Slow Motion

There are two subjects that the mainstream media seems specifically determined to avoid discussing these days when it comes to the economy – the first is the problem of falling global demand for goods and services; they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the fact that demand is going stagnant and will conjure all kinds of rationalizations to distract from the issue. The other subject is the debt bubble, the corporate debt bubble in particular.

These two factors alone guarantee a massive shock to the global economy and the US economy are built into the system, but I believe corporate debt is the key pillar of the false economy.  It has been utilized time and time again to keep the Everything Bubble from completely deflating, however, the fundamentals are starting to catch up to the fantasy.

For example, in terms of stock markets, which are now meaningless as an indicator of the health of the real economy, corporate stock buybacks have been the single most vital mechanism for inflation. Corporations buy their own stocks, often using cash borrowed from each other and from the Federal Reserve, in order to reduce the number of shares on the market and artificially boost the value of the remaining shares. This process is essentially legal manipulation of equities, and to be sure, it has been effective so far at keeping markets elevated.

The problem is that these same corporations are taking on more and more debt through interest payments in order to maintain the facade. Over the period of a decade, corporate debt has skyrocketed back to levels not seen since 2007, just before the credit crisis. The official corporate debt load now stands at over $10 trillion, and that’s not even counting derivatives exposure. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed Created The Everything Bubble And A Liquidity Crisis – What Happens Next?

The Fed Created The Everything Bubble And A Liquidity Crisis – What Happens Next?

It’s an interesting dynamic that the Federal Reserve has conjured in the decade after the 2008 credit crash. They spent several years using artificial stimulus measures to inflate perhaps the largest financial bubble in the history of the US, and then a couple years ago something changed. They addicted markets and investors to easy cash only to then cut off the flow of monetary heroin. The system was so dependent on the Fed’s “China White” that all it took to give everyone the shakes was interest rate hikes to the neutral rate of inflation and a moderate balance sheet selloff. Now, the system is dying from shock and it’s too late for intravenous stimulus to save it.

For many this might seem unprecedented, but it’s really rather common. The Fed has a long history of inflating bubbles using easy liquidity and then imploding those bubbles with the tightening of credit. It also has a long history of pretending like it is trying to save the economy from crisis when it is actually the source of the crisis. As Congressman Charles Lindbergh Sr. warned after the panic of 1920:

“Under the Federal Reserve Act, panics are scientifically created; the present panic is the first scientifically created one, worked out as we figure a mathematical problem…” 

In the latest theatrics of the Fed, a new trend has emerged – The “disappointing Fed”. In order to understand this disappointment, we have to define exactly what markets want from the central bank. Obviously, they want QE4; a massive liquidity program. For the past year at least they have been clamoring for it, and they still have yet to get it. But what does QE4 entail? In order to institute a new QE marathon the Fed would have to:

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Importance Of A Resilient Life

The Importance Of A Resilient Life

In the end, it will mean all the difference

My business partner Adam and I recently met with a successful business owner whose career began on Wall Street. The kind of guy who should be rooting for the system, because it has treated him well.

Instead, he was quite nervous about the sustainability of the status quo. “Starting in August,” he said, “Maybe it was the Amazon catching fire, maybe it was the negative interest rates – I don’t know for certain what the trigger was – but something has snapped.”

I agree. Because I feel it, too.

As do so many others. And not just those who regularly read PeakProsperity.com. Increasingly, even ‘mainstream’ voices are stating to report a profound sense that something really isn’t right. That — from the economy to geopolitics to the natural world — things are swiftly worsening.

Public perception is beginning to shift from complacency to fear. Countries are fast rejecting globalization in favor of nationalization. The holes in our ecosystem — vanishing birds, insects, amphibians and fish stocks — are becoming frighteningly obvious. The threats to life as we’re accustomed to it are becoming more visible while accelerating in both magnitude and frequency.

I expounded on the danger of this in my recent report It’s the Pace of Change That Kills You. Negative developments can spark their own vicious cycle. The more components of a system that fail, the more at risk the remaining components become.

That report was published just two weeks ago. Since then the world’s largest oil refinery was attacked by hostile forces and knocked out of commission, throwing the future integrity of the global oil market into question. Scientists just announced that North America has lost 29% of its total bird population (a drop of -3 billion) in the past half century.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Truth is the Ultimate Black Swan

Truth is the Ultimate Black Swan

Truth is the ultimate black swan. All other black swans are a myth. Financial websites are littered with articles written by people trying to predict the next black swan event that will usher in the implosion of the global Bubble of Everything, even though, by definition, a black swan is as unpredictable an event as Jeffrey Epstein’s suicide should have been. In reality, truth is the ultimate black swan because though financial truth remains hidden from the masses, it is always there, and no one can predict the exact timing of when the public will awaken from the stupor of delusion created by the world’s political, academic, and banking leaders to embrace the truth. The realization of the truth about sham economic conditions, labeled by the ignorant as “robust”, built on the fragile foundation of relentless Central Banker creation of trillions upon trillions of fiat currencies out of thin air, is the only true unpredictable event. The eventual collapse of the Bubble of Everything, as was the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis, certainly is predictable. 

What will be the trigger point at which truth implodes the Bubble of Everything? Will the trigger point be realization of the truth by 5%, 8%, or 20% of the population? Recent anthropological studies conducted with birds illustrated that when birds were able to observe another bird solving a puzzle box to receive a reward of a hidden mealworm, they increased their puzzle solving skills  by 14% a day versus a control group that was not provided with a “teacher” bird. At this rate, except for the small percentage of birds in the observation group that were simply incapable of learning by observation, nearly all birds in the observation group would have been able to solve the puzzle box and receive their reward of a hidden mealworm within a week’s time.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Survival Guide For 2019

A Survival Guide For 2019

How to safely navigate the ‘Year Of Instability’ 

As the first month of the year concludes, it’s becoming clear that 2019 will be a very different kind of year.

The near-decade of ‘recovery’ following the Great Financial Crisis enjoyed a stability and tranquility that suddenly evaporated at the end of 2018.

Here in 2019, instability reigns.

The world’s central banks are absolutely panicking. After last year’s bursting of the Everything Bubble, their coordinated plans for Quantitative Tightening have been summarily thrown out the window. Suddenly, no chairman can prove himself too dovish.

Jerome Powell, the supposed hardliner among them, completely capitulated in the wake of the recent -15% tantrum in stocks, which, as Sven Henrich colorfully quipped, proved what we suspected all along:

The global tsunami of liquidity (i.e. thin-air money printing) released by the central banking cartel has been the defining trend of the past decade. It has driven, directly or indirectly, more world events than any other factor.

And one of its more notorious legacies is the massive disparity and wealth and income resulting from its favoring of the top 0.1% over everyone else. The mega-rich have seen their assets skyrocket in value, while the masses have been mercilessly squeezed between similarly rising costs of living and stagnant wages.

How have the tone-deaf politicians responded? With tax breaks for their Establishment masters and new taxes imposed on the public. As a result, populist ire is catching fire in an accelerating number of countries, which the authorities are anxious to suppress by all means to prevent it from conflagrating further — most visibly demonstrated right now by the French government’s increasingly jack-booted attempts to quash the Yellow Vest protests:

Meanwhile, two other principal drivers of the past decade’s ‘prosperity’ are also suddenly in jeopardy.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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