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Federal books in $2.8B deficit over first four months of fiscal year

Between April and July of this year, federal revenues were $2.3 billion lower compared with last year, while program expenses were $6.5 billion higher. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

New numbers released Friday show the federal government ran a deficit of $2.8 billion over the first four months of 2016-17 — dropping Ottawa’s fiscal position $8 billion lower than it was over the same period a year ago.

By comparison, Ottawa had a $5.2-billion surplus during the same April-to-July stretch last year, according to the Finance Department’s monthly fiscal monitor.

This year in July alone, the report said the government books showed a deficit of $1.8 billion — down from a $200-million surplus a year earlier. The July data included a $1.4-billion increase in program expenses, an $800-million decline in revenues and a $200-million decrease in public-debt charges.

Between April and July, the numbers show federal revenues were $2.3 billion lower compared with last year, while program expenses were $6.5 billion higher. The government’s debt-servicing costs were $800 million lower over the time period, mostly because of the impacts of weaker inflation on bonds and a lower average interest rate.

Earlier this week, the federal budget watchdog said government spending under the Liberal government over the first three months of the fiscal year reached its highest mark in at least six years.

Higher program spending

On Friday, the fiscal monitor said the bulk of the added spending between April and July was due to a $3.9-billion increase in direct program expenses compared with a year ago — a spike of 11.9 per cent.

A closer look at the increase showed that transfer payments were up $2 billion, or 21 per cent. Finance said the bigger number was a reflection of year-over-year differences in the timing of the payments and an increase in disaster assistance.

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Austrians vs. The World On Canadian Fiscal Austerity

Austrians vs. The World On Canadian Fiscal Austerity

I don’t know whether this is something the average Canadian discusses over coffee, but the sharp fiscal turnaround in the mid-1990s is still providing fodder for today’s economists to argue. In September 2014, I summarized the Canadian budget triumph, in which the federal government turned its deficit into a surplus largely through spending cuts, with the economy suffering no ill effects.

But I also explained that it’s crucial for Keynesians like Paul Krugman to explain away the success of this so-called austerity by pointing to falling interest rates. Thus, Krugman argued, it’s not that cutting government spending actually helps an economy, but rather it’s that looser monetary policy can pick up the gaping hole in Aggregate Demand.

In my first Mises CA post and then a follow-up, I gave various arguments and evidence to say that the Bank of Canada did not appear to have loosened policy. For example, the growth in the Bank of Canada’s assets almost came to a halt in 1996, and it was no higher in subsequent years than it had been earlier in the decade. Furthermore, CPI inflation showed no signs of heating up during the period when Krugman must claim that monetary policy loosened.

The one metric that lines up with Krugman’s story is that Canadian interest rates fell. But, I pointed out that this is exactly what we would expect to happen naturally, as the federal government greatly reduced its borrowing and fears of a bond crisis evaporated. After all, this was just the mirror image of what happens in a situation of high government deficits, when “crowding out” and fears of a default go hand in hand with high interest rates.

The debate flared up once again last month, prompted by another Krugman post in which he (again) said that the Canadian experience in the 1990s showed the importance of loose money to offset budget cuts. This time, Market Monetarist David Beckworth jumped into the fray, taking the Keynesian position.

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