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Encouraged by US, Ukraine Prepares to Stage Military Provocation
Encouraged by US, Ukraine Prepares to Stage Military Provocation
There is a cause for concern and it’s real and very grave. Ukraine is being pushed to war. Kiev is not bluffing. Encouraged by its American tutors, it’s involved in dangerous games pursuing political purposes. It’s not about sanctions, warnings, statements and declarations – they want to provoke real shooting now. The time is right for ringing alarm bells before it’s too late.
The US President Donald Trump’s refusal to have a separate meeting with President Putin at the G20 summit in Argentina citing the Kerch Strait incident as a reason was not exactly unexpected. Obviously, Washington is interested in aggravating the Russian-Ukrainian relations. The introduction of the state of emergency in the territories bordering Russia, the concentration of Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region, and the call-up of reservists announced by Ukraine’s president – all these moves testify to the fact that war preparations are in full swing. Neither Washington nor Brussels have called on Kiev to show restraint.
Ukraine has recently announced its decision not to allow Russian men aged 16-60 into the country. This policy of Kiev is in stark contrast with what Moscow does. According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided not to retaliate. No, quite the opposite – he ordered to simplify the procedures for Ukrainians asking for Russian citizenship. The move is intended to demonstrate good intentions. In late October, the Russian president signed the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025 to facilitate the inflow of Russian speakers to the country.
US Air Force RQ-4 Global Hawk UAVs and US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operate over the Black Sea and eastern Ukraine.
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Italy Throws Down the Gauntlet to Challenge the Brussels Establishment
Italy Throws Down the Gauntlet to Challenge the Brussels Establishment
The EU has had a lot of trouble on its hands, as its members, such as Poland and Hungary, are openly challenging the established order. This time it’s a very serious situation, because Brussels is facing defiance from Italy, the 3rd largest national economy in the eurozone and the 8th largest global economy in terms of nominal GDP. It has a population of over 60 million. It is also a Europhile country and the bloc’s founding member.
The Italian government has rejected the EU’s calls to revise its draft budget for 2019 that includes a 2.4% deficit of GDP, which could dangerously boost the nation’s public debt. The ruling coalition in Rome, which is made up of the League and the populist Five Star Movement, has decided to increase borrowing so that it can fund its campaign promises, such as lowering the retirement age and increasing welfare payments.
Last month the European Commission claimed that these spending targets went against EU rules. Rome is burdened by the second-highest amount of public debt in the eurozone. There’s a 131.8% difference between borrowing and economic output there, but the government believes it will achieve substantial economic growth, while the EU’s predictions for Italy are rather gloomy. Nov. 13 was the deadline for submitting a revised draft budget. Rome did not comply. Now the EU leadership is threatening it with sanctions it until it falls into line. Italy could be slapped with a fine of €3.4 billion.
The Italian government takes an independent stance on a multitude of issues. It is seen as Russia-friendly in its calls for lifting, or at least easing, the sanctions against the Russian Federation.
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Military Escalation in Europe Is Like Runaway Train: It’s Time to Slow It Down
Military Escalation in Europe Is Like Runaway Train: It’s Time to Slow It Down
Much has been said about the Trident Juncture 2018 NATO exercise being held in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s borders. This is the largest training event since the Cold War, but it’s only part of a broader picture, in which military war preparations targeting Russia are in full swing. Exercises are being coordinated, along with infrastructure facilities that are being built, expanded, and modernized. For instance, last week the construction of an aircraft maintenance hangar at Estonia’s Amari Air Base, the first military project fully funded by the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI), was completed. The event was celebrated by US and Estonian air force officials with a ribbon-cutting ceremony. More than $38 million in EDI funds are being invested in that base. Beyond the training, a joint maintenance facility will also support the NATO aircraft that are conducting air policing in Eastern Europe. The Air Force Times cited US Air Forces Europe Commander Gen. Tod Wolters, who promised that even more funding was coming down the pipe for other projects. “Looking into fiscal year 2019, we are proposing a [European Defense Initiative] budget that demonstrates the US commitment to NATO,” he noted. According to him, “Our total [US European Command] request includes a significant funding increase from $4.7 billion to $6.5 billion.”
The NATO infrastructure modernization plans include upgrades to the Kecskemet Air Base in Hungary so that it can accommodate US F-15 fighters, A-10 attack planes, and C-5 transport aircraft, in addition to building a munitions storage facility at Malacky Air Base, Slovakia and a taxiway at Rygge, Norway. These steps are part of a larger effort to prepare for offensive operations against Russia.
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US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific
US Withdrawal from INF Treaty: Implications for Asia Pacific
One of the motives behind the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty is its desire to acquire first-strike capability against Russia from Europe, while keeping intact its strategic nuclear arsenal. Another motivation is the need to keep China, America’s fiercest geopolitical challenger, in its crosshairs by forcing it to alter its foreign, defense, and trade policies in order to tip the balance in Washington’s favor. The capability to knock out key infrastructure sites with precision intermediate-range strikes deep inside China, not just in the coastal provinces, is one way to make Beijing more tractable on key issues and force a rollback of its global influence. In April, Adm. Harry Harris, the commander of US Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the US should renegotiate the INF Treaty to better compete with China. The admiral knew what he was talking about.
China has developed the DF-26 “aircraft carrier-killer” ballistic missile that has now rendered the old US strategy ineffective. Zachary Keck of the National Interest believes the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile could stop the US Navy in its tracks without firing a shot. That threat has to be countered and one way to do it is by knocking it out with land-based, highly accurate missiles. Such systems are cheaper than aircraft carriers and can do the job without exposing thousands of servicemen to the missile threat if used for a first strike. China has been testing a new nuclear-capable, air-launched ballistic missile constructed on the basis of the DF-21 that will help that country improve its warfighting capabilities. Beijing also boasts land-based mobile missile systems (LBMMS) with DF-10 cruise missiles that have a maximum range of 1,500 to 2,000 km. China has to defend itself, and fielding these systems is the only way that it can counteract America’s huge sea, space, and air advantages.
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USMCA: New Economic Alliance Formed to Isolate China
USMCA: New Economic Alliance Formed to Isolate China
The almost 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been relegated to the dustbin of history. The United States, Canada, and Mexico have agreed on a trilateral trade deal — the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — to replace it. As expected, the agreement finalized on Sept. 30 is intended to stimulate production in North America and deter outsourcing to low-wage countries in Asia. Imports from other states are being penalized. The timing is perfect. Now President Trump can tout the USMCA as a win just as the November midterm elections are drawing near.
The USMCA contains a special clause that gives Washington a near-veto over any attempt by Canada or Mexico to make deals with China. It stipulates that if one of the three were to sign a free-trade agreement with a non-market country, either of the other two would have the right to terminate the trilateral USMCA with six months’ notice and form its own bilateral deal on the same terms. As a result, Canada and Mexico cannot act as back channels to ship products tariff-free to the United States. The US and the EU have not recognized China as a free-market economy. Neither has the WTO.
This is a major threat to Beijing’s position within the global trading system. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner and Canada is China’s 13th largest. What this agreement actually is is a forerunner to an economic and trade alliance created in opposition to Beijing. Once it takes effect after being approved by parliaments and Congress, the USMCA will be the first step in an anti-Chinese global campaign, to be followed by other deals aimed at the same goal. Evidently the US is going to insist that a similar clause be inserted into other trade accords, particularly the ones being negotiated with the EU and Japan, plus the one it is trying to develop with other nations of Asia-Pacific region.
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‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’: What Really Drives US Sanctions Against Russia
‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’: What Really Drives US Sanctions Against Russia
The US Department of Commerce has imposed restrictions on 12 Russian corporations that are “acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the US.” The notice has been published in the Federal Register. US corporations are banned from exporting dual-use goods to the sanctioned companies.
A closer look at the list makes one wonder. The companies under fire have no relation to defense production and have no ties at all with the Russian Ministry of Defense. None of them have signed any contracts with the military. AeroComposite, part of Russia’s state-run United Aircraft Corporation, produces wings for the civilian MC-21 airliner, Aviadvigatel produces engines for military aviation, it has neither technology nor experience to get involved in defense projects, Divetechnoservice is a civilian diving equipment producer, Nilco Group deals in grain, oil products, steel, wood, port services, paper, electronic parts and cement.
It’s not the military the US aims at this time. The real target is Russian civil aviation, which is on the rise. It’s enough to remember that as soon as Aeroflot Company announced its plans to acquire 100 Superjet SSJ-100 airliners instead of American Boeings, the US Treasury said it was considering the possibility of introducing sanctions against the Russian company Sukhoi, allegedly because its combat planes may have been used in Syrian chemical attacks.
A closer look at the blacklist shows the US has sanctioned those who are involved in the production of civilian airliner Irkut MC-21. Aviadvigatel is to supply PD-14 and PD-35 engines, which cannot power combat planes. AeroComposite, a producer of composites, is responsible for the development and creation of the composite wing for the aircraft. The MC-21 will be the world’s first airliner with a capacity of more than 130 passengers to have composite-based wings. The estimated share of composites in the overall design is 40%. So far, the company has produced composite parts only for MC-21 and no other aircraft.
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US Energy Secretary Visits Moscow: Threats and Accusations Used as Foreign-Policy Tools
US Energy Secretary Visits Moscow: Threats and Accusations Used as Foreign-Policy Tools
US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry visited Moscow Sept. 11-13 to hold talks with Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov and Energy Minister Alexander Novak. After discussing a wide range of problems, the parties agreed to restart the dormant US-Russia Energy Working Group to address issues of common interest and disagreements. It was emphasized that the two energy superpowers should maintain their points of contact in order to ensure the stability of the world’s energy markets. That’s good, but the visit also confirmed the fact that intimidation and accusations remain the main foreign policy tools all top US officials keep at the ready.
The secretary reiterated the administration’s opposition to the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas project. He confirmed during the press conference that Washington would impose sanctions against the Russian-German pipeline in order to minimize Europe’s dependence on Moscow.
Rick Perry expressed his “disappointment and concern” about “Russia’s continued attempts to infiltrate the American electric grid.” He did not specify precisely what his accusations were based on. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security issued a joint report in March, which said, “Since at least March 2016, Russian government cyber actors… targeted government entities and multiple US critical infrastructure sectors, including the energy, nuclear, commercial facilities, water, aviation, and critical manufacturing sectors.”
The report did not contain meaningful evidence. The conclusions were for the most part unsubstantiated. It offered the opinions of experts but was not convincing enough to be followed by a statement coming from the White House officially blaming Moscow. The paper used the term “infiltration,” not “attack.” Indeed, the accusations boiled down to allegations of evil intent, but not hostile acts, as nothing was destroyed and no one was killed.
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Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum Wrap Up: De-Dollarization Tops Agenda
Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum Wrap Up: De-Dollarization Tops Agenda
The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) was held in Vladivostok on Sept.11-13. Founded in 2015, the event has become a platform for planning and launching projects to strengthen business ties in the Asia-Pacific region.
This year, the EEF brought together delegations from over 60 countries to discuss the topic “The Far East: Expanding the Range of Possibilities”. A total of 100 business events involving over 6,000 participants were held during the three days. 1,357 media personnel worked to cover the forum. Last year, the number of participants was 5,000 with 1,000 media persons involved in reporting and broadcasting. The EEF-18 gathered 340 foreign and 383 Russian CEOs. Nearly 80 start-ups from across South-East Asia joined the meeting.
This year, a total of 175 agreements worth of 2.9 trillion rubles (some $4.3 billion) were signed. For comparison, the sum was 2.5 trillion rubles (roughly $3.7 billion) in 2017. They included the development of the Baimsky ore deposits in Chukotka, the construction of a terminal for Novatek LNG at Bechevinskaya Bay in Kamchatka and the investment of Asian countries in Russia’s agricultural projects in the Far East. Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Mail.Ru Group, Megafon and Chinese Alibaba inked an agreement on establishing AliExpress trade joint venture. Rosneft and Chinese CNPC signed an oil exploration agreement.
The Chinese delegation was the largest (1,096 people), followed by the Japanese (570 members). The list of guests included the president of Mongolia and prime ministers of Japan and South Korea. It was also the first time Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the event to meet his Russian counterpart. The issue of de-dollarization topped the agenda. Russia and China reaffirmed their interest in expanding the use of national currencies in bilateral deals.
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US Sanctions Foster Emergence of Multipolar World
US Sanctions Foster Emergence of Multipolar World
Russia, Iran, China, and now Turkey are in the same boat, as all have become the target of US sanctions. But none of those nations has bowed under the pressure. Russia had foreseen the developments in advance and took timely measures to protect itself. The Turkish national currency, the lira, is plummeting now that Washington has introduced sanctions as well as tariffs on steel and aluminum, in an attempt to compel Ankara to turn over a detained American pastor. Turkish President Erdogan said it was time for Turkey to seek “new friends,” and Turkey is planning to issue yuan-denominated bonds to diversify its foreign borrowing instruments. On Aug. 11, President Erdogan said Turkey was ready to begin using local currencies in its trade with Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, and the EU nations of the eurozone.
The recent BRICS summit reaffirmed Ankara’s commitment to the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) that is geared toward de-dollarizing its member states’ economies, and the agreement to quickly launch a Local Currency Bond Fund gives that policy teeth. Turkey has also expressed its desire to join BRICS.
Ankara is gradually moving toward membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It has been accepted as a dialog partner of that organization. Last year Turkey became a dialog partner with ASEAN. On Aug. 1, the first ASEAN-Turkey Trilateral Ministerial Meeting was held in Singapore, bringing together Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, ASEAN Secretary General Dato Lim Jock Hoi, and Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, who is serving as the 2018 ASEAN term chairman. The event took place under the auspices of the 51st ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that attracted foreign ministers and top diplomats from 30 countries.
Ankara is mulling over a free-trade area (FTA) agreement with the Eurasian Union. This cooperation between Ankara and the EAEU has a promising future.
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Russia Sells Off Record Amount of US Treasury Bonds
Russia Sells Off Record Amount of US Treasury Bonds
The US Treasury Department report for April published on June 15 revealed that Russia sold $47.4 billion out of the $96.1 it had held in Treasury bonds (T-bonds). In March, Moscow cut its Treasury holdings by $1.6 billion. In February, Russia reduced its bond portfolio by $9.3 billion. Other holders did it too. Japan sold off about $12 billion, China liquidated roughly $7 billion. Ireland ditched over $17 billion.
The tariff wars unleashed by Washington stirred fears that financial markets may be in for a rough ride with American treasuries dumped by some partners, including such major holders as China and Japan, each holding over $1 trillion in bonds.
Russia has cut its holdings in American securities following numerous rounds of sanctions imposed by Washington against Moscow and amid the ongoing trade wars between the US and its allies and partners.
This is bad news and ominous warning for Washington. The foreign demand is critical to offset an expected surge in federal borrowing needs. The Treasury Department needs to finance the huge spending bill along with tax cuts that were passed by Congress in December 2017. It plans to auction off around $1.4 trillion in treasuries this year with a glut of sellers and a shortage of buyers in the bond market the government plans to add $600 billion to.
The companies buy back their own shares to boost capitalization. The stock prices are overvalued. The FRS monetary policy does not spur economic growth amid the growing national debt. The bond market does not look attractive anymore. Looks like there is a big change on the horizon that nations will dump US debt in case of trade war.
And the supremacy of the US dollar is not as solid as many people believe it is. A sell-by date as a global reserve currency is looming. The process of de-dollarization is gradually gaining momentum.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russia Sells Off Record Amount of US Treasury Bonds
Russia Sells Off Record Amount of US Treasury Bonds
The US Treasury Department report for April published on June 15 revealed that Russia sold $47.4 billion out of the $96.1 it had held in Treasury bonds (T-bonds). In March, Moscow cut its Treasury holdings by $1.6 billion. In February, Russia reduced its bond portfolio by $9.3 billion. Other holders did it too. Japan sold off about $12 billion, China liquidated roughly $7 billion. Ireland ditched over $17 billion.
The tariff wars unleashed by Washington stirred fears that financial markets may be in for a rough ride with American treasuries dumped by some partners, including such major holders as China and Japan, each holding over $1 trillion in bonds.
Russia has cut its holdings in American securities following numerous rounds of sanctions imposed by Washington against Moscow and amid the ongoing trade wars between the US and its allies and partners.
This is bad news and ominous warning for Washington. The foreign demand is critical to offset an expected surge in federal borrowing needs. The Treasury Department needs to finance the huge spending bill along with tax cuts that were passed by Congress in December 2017. It plans to auction off around $1.4 trillion in treasuries this year with a glut of sellers and a shortage of buyers in the bond market the government plans to add $600 billion to.
The companies buy back their own shares to boost capitalization. The stock prices are overvalued. The FRS monetary policy does not spur economic growth amid the growing national debt. The bond market does not look attractive anymore. Looks like there is a big change on the horizon that nations will dump US debt in case of trade war.
And the supremacy of the US dollar is not as solid as many people believe it is. A sell-by date as a global reserve currency is looming. The process of de-dollarization is gradually gaining momentum.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
A Furtive Glance at the US’s Ongoing War Preparations Against Russia
A Furtive Glance at the US’s Ongoing War Preparations Against Russia
While the world’s attention is riveted on Syria, the US is significantly boosting its forces in Europe. And these are not just divisions streaming in to take part in some exercises that will leave once those are over. This is a serious buildup to create a potentially offensive posture. The beefing up of the US forces is taking place amid preparations for a Russia-US summit. That’s a rather peculiar background for the event, to put it mildly!
The 4th Combat Aviation Brigade and the 4th Infantry Division will deploy to Europe as part of its Operation Atlantic Resolve. Based in Germany, the forces will participate in multiple exercises, most of which will be held very near the Russian border in Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the Baltic States. The Army is considering deploying an entire division in a Reforger type of exercise, with troops coming over to use the pre-positioned hardware. Those forces could potentially see a surge, with a division-level deployment in late 2018 or 2019.
The plans include the creation of a rear-area operations command to be hosted by Germany. Another command is planned that will ensure mobility in the North Atlantic shipping lanes. A “military Schengen” to allow easy movement across borders is under consideration. NATO is rotating four battalion-size, combat-ready, air-power-supported battle groups throughout Poland — which is hosting 800 American troops — and the Baltic States.
In February, the US Army held the largest artillery exercise in Europe since the Cold War. The event was dubbed Dynamic Front 18 and involved seven rocket-launching systems, 94 artillery pieces, including eight German Panzerhaubitze 2000 armored howitzers, 14 British L118 light guns, and 18 US M777 155 mm howitzers.
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The Russian Military Warns: a Major War in Syria Is Imminent
The Russian Military Warns: a Major War in Syria Is Imminent
On March 17, the Russian General Staff warned about an imminent attack on Syria. The statement did not elaborate. Of course, some information is classified but an independent and impartial analysis of publicly available information leads one to the same conclusion. Let’s look at the facts.
There are warships deployed by US Navy in the Red Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf. They are ready to launch roughly 400 long-range Tomahawks against a target in the Middle East on any given day. Sea-launched cruise missiles were used to strike Syria in April. Anything that is at all related to the military operations on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is hush-hush information, but it’s an open secret that the strategic bombers based there can launch at least a hundred cruise missiles and then use other high-precision munitions in a follow-up attack. On average, one bomber carries 20 AGM-86 ALCMs. Five bombers are believed to be normally stationed on this island that is off-limits to inquisitive outsiders. This means that at least 500 cruise missiles can be fired on short notice.
On March 17, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that Great Britain, France, and some additional countries besides the US had special forces operating in Syria that were engaging the Syrian Army directly. But it’s not just commandos.
It was reported on March 16 that the UK would be stationing a significant number of troops at the US-controlled Al-Tanf military base, adjacent to the Iraqi border. This facility is prominently eatured in NATO’s war planning in Syria. It blocks the corridor linking Iran to Lebanon via Syria and Iraq. The size of the deployment — about 2,300 troops accompanied by tanks and helicopters — is too significant just to be intended to fight Islamic State militants who are already on the run.
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