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The Bakken and North Dakota production data is in.

Bakken production was down 19,502 bpd in August while all North Dakota was down 20,552 bpd.

Here is an amplified chart of Bakken and all North Dakota production.

Bakken barrels per well per day is now 112 while all North Dakota gets 94 barrels per well per day.

This chart shows the monthly change in North Dakota production. It is likely that by next month the 12 month average change in production will be negative.

Bakken wells producing increased by 69 and ND wells producing increased by 65.

From the Director’s Cut

July Permitting: 233 drilling and 0 seismic
Aug Permitting: 153 drilling and 1 seismic
Sep Permitting: 154 drilling and 1 seismic

July Sweet Crude Price1 = $39.41/barrel
Aug Sweet Crude Price = $29.52/barrel
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $31.17/barrel
Today’s Sweet Crude Price = $35.00/barrel
(low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in Dec 2008)
(all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)

July rig count 73
Aug rig count 74
Sep rig count 71
Today’s rig count is 67
(in November 2009 it was 63)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

Comments: The drilling rig count increased 1 from July to August, decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month. Operators are now committed to running fewer rigs than their planned 2015 minimum as drill times and efficiencies continue to improve and oil prices continue to fall. This has resulted in a current active drilling rig count of 10 to 15 rigs below what operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/barrel. The number of well completions fell from 119(final) in July to 115(preliminary) in August. Oil price weakness now anticipated to last well into next year is the main reason for the continued slow-down. There was one significant precipitation event in the Minot area, 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work), and no days with temperatures below -10F.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Crude Little Change

October 13, 2015

OPEC Crude Little Change

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with the crude only production numbers for the 12 OPEC countries. The data below is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is September 2015.

OPEC 12 crude only production was up 109,000 barrels per day in September but that was after the August production numbers were revised down by 82,000 bpd. OPEC crude only production now stands at 31,571,000 pbd. That is just 12,000 bpd above June production but still 100,000 bpd below their peak in July of 2008.

Saudi Arabia was down 48,000 bpd in September to 10,225,000 bpd. That is 174,000 bpd below their latest peak in June.

The big gainer in September was Iraq, up 80,100 bpd in September. That is still 5,000 bpd below their latest peak in July.

The UAE hit a new high in September, up 24,300 bpd in September to 2,902,000 bpd.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

October 8, 2015

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

The EIA is out with the latest Short Term Energy Outlook. All charts below are in million barrels per day. The one table is in thousand barrels per day. The projected data is through December 2016.

The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids dropping 620,000 bpd in September, up 280,000 bpd in November but bottoming out in January, February and March, then climbing until October of 2016.

The EIA expects Non-OPEC average total liquids to increase by 140,000 bpd in 2016. The chart above shows the change they expect each country to make. Canada, by far, has the largest increase in production, up by 340,000 barrels per day. Without Canada’s input the EIA says, Non-OPEC total liquids production would be down by 200,000 bpd.

Here are the changes in Non-OPEC production the EIA expects each country to make 2015 to 2016 in thousand barrels per day. Countries not listed had zero expected change from 2015 to 2016.

The EIA says US total liquids production dropped 180,000 bpd in September.

Canada, the EIA says, was down 240,000 bpd in September and up again 270,000 bpd in October and then continue to climb at a steady pace through the end of 2016. The upward trend the EIA expects in Canadian production seems to match the same upward trend that Canada has experienced since 2011. It seems that the EIA expects the drop in the price of crude oil to have almost no effect whatsoever on Canadian total liquids production.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Open Thread: Any Energy Related Subject

September 27, 2015

Open Thread: Any Energy Related Subject

Russian production has flattened out during the last 12 months. Russia is the world’s second largest producer of crude oil, only slightly below Saudi Arabia.

Iran unveils a three stage plan to get its Persian Gulf oil back to pre sanction levels… in five years.

3-stage plan to raise oil production unveiled

Managing director of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company has explained details of Iran’s three-stage plan to increase oil production during the post-sanction era.

Explaining the detail of Iran’s three-stage plan to increase crude oil production in Persian Gulf, Saeed Hafezi said that, “currently, the natural decline in Iran’s oil production in offshore fields exceeds the decline in onshore fields.”

Pointing to the 10-12 percent drop in oil production at Persian Gulf fields, Hafezi asserted that, “accordingly, implementing plans to increase oil production in these areas will be time consuming and only after compensating for the natural decrease we can begin to increase our production capacity.”

This official reiterated that by the removal of sanctions, Iran will undertake a three-stage plan to increase oil production adding that, “based on this plan, during the first stage we will implement emergency techniques to increase daily production of crude oil in Persian Gulf by 32 thousand barrels.”

Announcing a medium-term program to increase daily production in Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz by 130 thousand barrels, Hafezi added that, “by undertaking a four to five-year plan, the natural drop in annual production capacity will be compensated in order to reach the quota of 800 thousand barrels per day.”

I found the above article extremely revealing. First, much of Iran’s decline during sanctions has been due to “natural decline”. Of course we knew that but I had no idea it was as high as 10 to 12 percent. That was just their Persian Gulf fields, but their inland fields have been declining also. It will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get those fields up to their previous levels.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Special Thread: The Camp of the Saints

September 26, 2015

Special Thread: The Camp of the Saints

Wiki’s take on Jean Raspail’s prophetic novel, The Camp of the Saints:

The Camp of the Saints is a novel about population migration and its consequences. In Calcutta India, the Belgian government announces a policy in which Indian babies will be adopted and raised in Belgium. The policy is reversed after the Belgian consulate is inundated with poverty-stricken parents eager to give up their infant children.

An Indian “wise man” then rallies the masses to make a mass exodus to live in Europe. Most of the story centers on the French Riviera, where almost no one remains except for the military and a few civilians, including a retired professor who has been watching the huge fleet of run-down freighters approaching the French coast.

The story alternates between the French reaction to the mass immigration and the attitude of the immigrants. They have no desire to assimilate into French culture but want the goods that are in short supply in their native India. Although the novel focuses on France, the rest of the West shares its fate.

Near the end of the story the mayor of New York City is made to share Gracie Mansion with three families from Harlem, the Queen of the United Kingdom must agree to have her son marry a Pakistani woman, and only one drunken Soviet soldier stands in the way of thousands of Chinese people as they swarm into Siberia. The one holdout until the end of the novel is Switzerland, but by then international pressure isolating it as a rogue state for not opening its borders forces it to capitulate.

The novel was published 42 years ago but it is suddenly back in the news again, ‘Camp of The Saints’ Seen Mirrored In Pope’s Message.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

September 24, 2015

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

I am starting this post off with a news article because it explains why JODI has U.S. production numbers wrong for July.

No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July

The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.

The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.

But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.

For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.

The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.

In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.

JODI Non-OPEC stood at 44,100,000 bpd in July, down 567,000 bpd from the peak in December.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bakken Flat but the EIA Predicts Decline

September 16, 2015

Bakken Flat but the EIA Predicts Decline

The North Dakota Industrial Commission has published the July production data forThe Bakken and for all North Dakota.

Bakken production was down 5,430 barrels per day while all North Dakota was down 9,410 bpd.

Here is a more amplified view of what has happened during the last 12 months.

Bakken barrels per day per well has been falling faster than for all North Dakota. This is because a lot of very low producing conventional wells are being shut down.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC August Production Flat

September 15, 2015

OPEC August Production Flat

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market report is out with OPEC production numbers for August 2015.

All charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point August 2015.

Not much has happened since June, OPEC 12 production was up 12,000 bpd in August that is well within the margin of error.

All my charts are taken from what OPEC calls “secondary sources” OPEC nations, especially Iran and Venezuela, often lie about their production. But from the chart above you can see exactly who was up and who was down in August, and by how much.

Saudi is holding steady, producing 10,362,000 barrels per day in August. However Saudi is up 700,000 bpd since February.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The EIA Changes Data Collection Methods

September 5, 2015

The EIA Changes Data Collection Methods

EIA begins monthly survey-based reporting of U.S. crude oil production

With the release of today’s Petroleum Supply Monthly, EIA is incorporating the first survey-based reporting of monthly U.S. crude oil production statistics. Today’s Petroleum Supply Monthly includes estimates for June 2015 crude oil production using new survey data for 13 states and the federal Gulf of Mexico, and revises figures previously reported for January through May 2015.

From the EIA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production webpage.

Beginning with the June 2015 data, EIA is providing estimates for crude oil production (including lease condensate) based on data from the EIA-914 survey. Survey-based monthly production estimates starting with January 2015 are provided for Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and the Federal Gulf of Mexico. For two states covered by the EIA-914—Oklahoma and West Virginia—and all remaining oil-producing states and areas not individually covered by the EIA-914, production estimates are based on the previous methodology (using lagged state data). When EIA completes its validation of Oklahoma and West Virginia data, estimates for these states will also be based on EIA-914 data. For all states and areas, production data prior to 2015 are estimates published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly. Later in 2015, EIA will report monthly crude oil production by API gravity category for the individually-surveyed EIA-914 states.

This is great news for those of us who have been complaining for years about the EIA’s poor and misleading data collection methods.

June C+C production, according to the Monthly Energy Review, was almost 9.6 million barrels per day. But the Petroleum Supply Monthly cuts that by 303,000 bpd. And they have production dropping by 316,000 barrels per day in the last two months, May and June.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Oil Production Nears Previous Peak

August 31, 2015

US Oil Production Nears Previous Peak

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review came out a couple of days ago. The data is in thousand barrels per day and the last data point is July 2015.

US consumption of total liquids, or as the EIA calls it, petroleum products supplied, reached 20,000,000 barrels per day for the first time since February of 2008.

Something I never noticed before, consumption started to drop in January 2008, seven months before the price, along with world production, started to drop in August 2008. This had to be a price driven decline. Could the current June and July increase in consumption be price driven also?

US Production was down 96,000 barrels per day in July to 9,503,000 bpd. That is 190,000 bpd below the March level of 9,693,000 bpd.

Here is what the last 50 years of US production looks like. The peak was in 1970 or 1971, depending on what you call the peak.

In March 2015 we were still 351,000 barrels per day below the peak month of 10,044,000 bpd in November of 1970. But right now we are headed in the wrong way to break that record. In July we were 541,000 bpd from that record. Right now the 2015 average, January through July, is 9,534,000 bpd. That is 103,000 barrels per day below the 1970 average. But the 2015 average is likely to get smaller as the year plays out.

I have another chapter from Peter Goodchild’s Tumbling Tide: Population, Petroleum, and Systemic Collapse. I really like this book. The author comes closest to matching my sentiments than anyone I have read to date.

Tumbling Tide Chapter 10

The Pollyanna Principle

The problem of explaining peak oil does not hinge on the issue of peak oil as such, but rather on that of “alternative energy.” Most people now have some idea of the concept of peak oil, but it tends to be brushed aside in conversation because of the common incantation: “It doesn’t matter if oil runs out, because by then everything will be converted to [whatever] power.” Humanity’s faith in what might be called the Pollyanna Principle—the belief that everything will work out right in the end—is eternal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US Shale Declining and OPEC Still Climbing

August 12, 2015

US Shale Declining and OPEC Still Climbing

There is new data out today. The EIA published their International Petroleum Statisticsyesterday. The EIA also published their Drilling Productivity Report which gave their expected shale oil and gas production through September. Then this morning OPEC published their Monthly Oil Marketing Report with OPEC crude only production numbers through July.

First the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course most of the Drilling Productivity Report is projection, not history. And that projection goes through September 2015.

The EIA has the Bakken peaking in December and declining 107 thousand barrels per day since that point. A secondary peak was reached in April and declining steadily since then.

The EIA has Eagle Ford peaking in March and declining 226 thousand barrels per day since that point.

The EIA has Niobrara peaking in March, almost flat for one month then declining sharply after that for a total decline of 75 thousand barrels per day after that.

The Permian was the only major shale area with no decline so far. The EIA has the Permian up 29 thousand barrels per day since the rest of the field, combined, peaked in April.

The EIA has total shale peaking in April at 5,434000 bpd and declining by 360 thousand barrels per day by September to 5,074000 bpd. 360,000 barrels per day is quite a decline by September.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

International Rig Count Still Falling

August 9, 2015

International Rig Count Still Falling

The Baker Hughes International Rig Count is out. I have decided to try something new with the charts. That is to compare the current year’s rig count with the previous two years count and to insert, within the charts, the percent change for this year as compared to last year. Also, this is the total rig count, Oil and Gas. Also the charts are not zero based. I do this in order to better emphasize the monthly change.

July usually sees a big jump in rig counts. This year there was a very tiny July increase, only a fraction of the increase we usually see for July.

*The Total International rig counts does not include the USA, Canada or the FSU. The Total International rig count was down 28 in July to 1118. Last July it was up3 to 1344.

The Middle East is the only place that rig counts are holding up. Rig counts for July are down 32 to 391 but they are still above their 2013 levels.

Latin American rigs fell 1 to 313 and are 23% below their 2014 level of 410.

Europe’s rig counts fell in July to 108. That is 45 rigs below last July’s count of 153.

US Oil Production Finally Starting to Decline

August 4, 2015

US Oil Production Finally Starting to Decline

There has been very little data to post about recently and as everyone should know by now, I post primarily about data. So if there is no data there is not much to post about. Also I have been very busy for the a week now and have checked in only a couple of times.

A few days ago a very racist post was posted on this blog. I completely overlooked it as I seldom scan the posts because I get an email for every post so I just read the posts in the emails. But when there is a guest post, as the one last week was, I get no emails, the guest poster gets them instead. Anyway I deleted the post and banned the poster. I also banned another poster because he accused me of deliberately letting the post stay up. That outraged me. It was the same thing as accusing me of such racism.

The Monthly Energy Review and the Petroleum Supply Monthly have US production peaking, so far, in March and April. The Petroleum Supply Weekly has US production peaking in June. In the chart above I have averaged the Petroleum Supply Weekly into monthly data. All data is in thousand barrels per day,

Here we have the weekly data from the Petroleum Supply Weekly. The last data point is July 24th. The huge jumps you see are basically just revisions. The huge jump you see for the week of May 22nd, was not really a jump. The EIA explained that their prior numbers were too low and the sudden increase that week was merely an adjustment.

The EIA is finally getting its act together as to Texas C+C production. They have Texas peaking in March at 3,770,000 bpd and declining 106,000 bpd since then.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

July 18, 2015

Oil Shipments by Rail Declining

Weekly oil shipments by rail can be found on the web at Weekly Carload Reports. And a summation of that data with charts can be found at Association of American Railroads Freight Rail Traffic Data.

Crude oil by rail basically started with the shale boom. Prior to that almost all oil was shipped by pipeline. Of course a lot of oil was trucked to the pipelines. The EIA says in the first seven months of 2014 8 percent of all us crude and refined products was shipped by rail. It looks like that percentage was increased somewhat in the second half of 2014.

Oil by rail, for the entire USA, peaked in August, September and October of 2014 and has declined since.

I have converted the weekly carloads to daily then converted carloads to barrels. There are about 700 barrels per carload. That gives us the average barrels per day by rail.

I have converted the weekly “daily average” to monthly “daily average” and plotted it against the North Dakota production. The EIA says: Between 60% and 70% of the more than 1 million barrels per day of oil produced in the state has been transported to refineries by rail each month in the first half of 2014, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

As we can see from this chart the volume of oil shipped by rail changes from month to month. The chart is barrels per day per month. The peak, for North Dakota, is December 2014. Oil by rail for the USA peaked about three months earlier.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

OPEC Production Still Increasing

July 14, 2015

OPEC Production Still Increasing

The July OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all OPEC Crude Only production data for June 2015.

Crude Only production for the entire OPEC 12 as up 283,000 barrels per day in June to 31,378,000 bpd. But that was after May production had been revised up by 120,000 bpd. So counting May’s revisions and June’s numbers, OPEC production was up 403,000 bpd from what was originally reported last month.

The biggest gainer, by far, was Iraq, up 198,600 barrels per day over May to 4,007,000 bpd. It is interesting to note that Iraq via “Direct Communication” say they only produced 3,591,000 bpd in June, 416,000 bpd less than what “Secondary Sources” said they produced.

Saudi Arabia was up 48,400 bpd in June to 10,235,000 bpd. That is just over one half million barrels per day above their 2014 average.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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