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Tag Archives: recession
“Worst. Recession. Ever.”
“Worst. Recession. Ever.” When Harry Met Comic-Book-Guy “Worst global downturn since the Great Depression” says the IMF. Actually, it’s potentially worse than that.We are seeing credible (initial) claims in the UK and US that millions/tens of millions are going to be unemployed – again taking us back to black & white memories of long queues of […]
Oil Tumbles After IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast
Oil Tumbles After IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast As if oil prices needed any more help on their downward spiral towards the teens, The IMF just slashed global growth to the worst since the ’30s. “This crisis is like no other,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report. “Like […]
What the Sunrise Will Show
What the Sunrise Will Show A storm blew in late last night, dropping trees and powerlines and sweeping the porch of all chairs, bowls, and benches. At 5 a.m. I took a short walk to take stock of the yard and barnyard areas before returning to my desk to type this post. Now, waiting for […]
Stockman: This Is Not Your Grandfather’s Recession…
Stockman: This Is Not Your Grandfather’s Recession… Based on the shocking 6.6 million of new unemployment claims, we’d bet they’ll be some explosive political fireworks soon in this country about Covid-containment versus keeping the main street economy alive. There have now been an unprecedented, off-the charts 9.96 million new unemployment claims in the last two […]
How bad will Canada’s COVID-19 recession be?
How bad will Canada’s COVID-19 recession be? 2 million jobs could be at stake, and the economy could shrink by more than it did in 2009 The black swan has landed. The novel coronavirus pandemic is well underway worldwide, but it wasn’t until this month that Canadians started coming to grips with the economic pain it can […]
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession?
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession? As if waking up to an economic nightmare, investors see headlines like these and many others flashing across their Bloomberg terminals: Facebook says Oculus headphone production will be delayed due to virus Apple extends country wide store closing for another week Foxconn delays iPhone production Qualcomm cuts production […]
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world as well. There are two important questions […]
“Last Hurrah” for Central Bankers
“Last Hurrah” for Central Bankers We’ve all seen zombie movies where the good guys shoot the zombies but the zombies just keep coming because… they’re zombies! Market observers can’t be blamed for feeling the same way about former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. Bernanke was Fed chair from 2006–2014 before handing over the gavel to Janet […]
Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession
Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession Energy Forecast for 2020 Overall, I expect that oil and other commodity prices will remain low in 2020. These low oil prices will adversely affect oil production and several other parts of the economy. As a result, a strong tendency toward recession can be expected. The extent […]
Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament
Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament Many people have the impression that recessions come from financial missteps, such as the US subprime loan fiasco. If energy is involved at all, the problem comes from high oil prices as supply becomes inadequate to meet demand. The real situation is different. We already seem to be on […]
5 More Signs That The Global Economy Is Careening Toward A Recession
5 More Signs That The Global Economy Is Careening Toward A Recession The global economy is already in the worst distress that we have seen since 2008, and it appears that the global slowdown is actually picking up pace as we head into 2020. And this is happening even though central banks around the world […]
Brace For Impact! The U.S. Economy Is Going Down, And It Is Going Down Hard…
Brace For Impact! The U.S. Economy Is Going Down, And It Is Going Down Hard… I have so many bad economic numbers to share with you that I don’t even know where to start. I had anticipated that the U.S. economic slowdown would accelerate during the fourth quarter of 2019, and that is precisely what […]
GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports
GDP Estimates Crash on Dismal Economic Reports GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates. The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%. Pat Higgins at GDPNow explains: “The GDPNow model estimate for real […]
What Heavy Trucks Are Saying
What Heavy Trucks Are Saying “I do believe that in North America it is a cyclical downturn”: Cummins COO. Orders for heavy trucks, after the historic boom in 2018, plunged this year, but they may have finally bottomed out. In October 2019, truck makers in the US received about 22,072 orders for Class-8 trucks, according […]
November 4th, 2019… Back in the Real World…
November 4th, 2019… Back in the Real World… Trawling through the market headlines this morning, I’m struck by the number of comments about how much better the investment environment looks. There is less likelihood of a global recession, corporate earnings aren’t as bad as expected, and jobs are growing. I am unconvinced. I see worrying […]
