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Reaching the End of Early Stimulus – What’s Ahead?
Reaching the End of Early Stimulus – What’s Ahead? Many people thought that COVID-19 would be gone with a short shutdown. They also thought that the world’s economic problems could be cured with a six month “dose” of stimulus. It is increasingly clear that neither of these assumptions is correct. Despite the claims of epidemiologists, our […]
Today’s Energy Predicament – A Look at Some Charts
Today’s Energy Predicament – A Look at Some Charts Today’s energy predicament is a strange situation that most modelers have never really considered. Let me explain some of the issues I see, using some charts. [1] It is probably not possible to reduce current energy consumption by 80% or more without dramatically reducing population. A glance […]
Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible
Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible It seems like a reset of an economy should work like a reset of your computer: Turn it off and turn it back on again; most problems should be fixed. However, it doesn’t really work that way. Let’s look at a few of the misunderstandings that […]
COVID-19 and the economy: Where do we go from here?
COVID-19 and the economy: Where do we go from here? The COVID-19 story keeps developing. At first, everyone listened to epidemiologists telling us that a great deal of social distancing, and even the closing down of economies, would be helpful. After trying these things, we ended up with a huge number of people out of work […]
Increased Violence Reflects an Energy Problem
Increased Violence Reflects an Energy Problem Why are we seeing so much violence recently? One explanation is that people are sympathizing with those in the Minneapolis area who are upset at the death of George Floyd. They believe that a white cop used excessive force in subduing Floyd, leading to his death. I believe that there […]
COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?
COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward? Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward? I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in […]
Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns
Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the […]
Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19
Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19 We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out. [1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious. COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal contact doesn’t need to be very long; a taxi driver can […]
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus
It Is Easy to Overreact to the Chinese Coronavirus Recently, a new coronavirus has been causing many illnesses and deaths. The virus first became active in Wuhan, China, but it has already spread to the rest of China. Scattered cases have been identified around the rest of the world as well. There are two important questions […]
Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession
Expect low oil prices in 2020; tendency toward recession Energy Forecast for 2020 Overall, I expect that oil and other commodity prices will remain low in 2020. These low oil prices will adversely affect oil production and several other parts of the economy. As a result, a strong tendency toward recession can be expected. The extent […]
Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament
Recession Ahead: An Overview of Our Predicament Many people have the impression that recessions come from financial missteps, such as the US subprime loan fiasco. If energy is involved at all, the problem comes from high oil prices as supply becomes inadequate to meet demand. The real situation is different. We already seem to be on […]
Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work
Understanding Why the Green New Deal Won’t Really Work The reasons why the Green New Deal won’t really work are fairly subtle. A person really has to look into the details to see what goes wrong. In this post, I try to explain at least a few of the issues involved. [1] None of the new […]
Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019
Our Energy and Debt Predicament in 2019 Many people are concerned that we have an oil problem. Or they are concerned about recession and the need to lower interest rates. As I see the situation, we have a problem of a networked economy that is not functioning well. A big part of this problem is energy-related. […]
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’
Debunking ‘Lower Oil Supply Will Raise Prices’ We often hear the statement, “When oil supply is lower, oil prices will rise because of scarcity.” Now, we are getting to see firsthand whether oil prices really do rise, as oil supplies become more scarce. Figure 1 shows that world oil supply hit a peak in November 2018 […]
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems
Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems Economists tell us that within the economy there is a lot of substitutability, and they are correct. However, there are a couple of not-so-minor details that they overlook: There is no substitute for energy. It is possible to harness energy from another source, or to make a particular object […]
