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The Twilight of the Global Order
The Twilight of the Global Order The recent G7 summit in Biarritz signaled a broader shift in international governance away from constructive cooperation and toward vague discussions and ad hoc solutions. The conclusion of the summit could be a marker of the world order’s future – ending not with a bang, but with a whimper. […]
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession
The Anatomy of the Coming Recession Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not […]
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet?
Are Central Banks Losing Their Big Bet? Following the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks bet that greater activism on the part of other policymakers would be their salvation, helping them to normalize their operations. But that activism never came, and central bankers are now facing a lose-lose proposition. ZURICH – In recent years, central […]
The US Economy’s Dirty Secret
The US Economy’s Dirty Secret Relatively strong US growth amid sluggishness elsewhere is not what economics textbooks would predict. But persistently low interest rates and weak inflation bring multiple benefits to American firms and consumers, while the adverse impact of the global slowdown on US exports should not be overstated. SAN DIEGO – There is […]
Time for a True Global Currency
Time for a True Global Currency The International Monetary Fund’s global reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, is one of the most underused instruments of multilateral cooperation. Turning it into a true global currency would yield several benefits for the global economy and the international monetary system. NEW YORK – This year, the world commemorates […]
The Sorry State of the World Economy
The Sorry State of the World Economy Data released in January paint a bleak picture of advanced-economy prospects. Even if some emerging economies – which face serious challenges of their own – manage to pick up some of the slack, the world economy will remain encumbered by the combination of economic interconnectedness and political balkanization. […]
Two Cheers for Population Decline
Two Cheers for Population Decline Eventual gradual population decline, provided it results from free choice, should be welcomed. Indeed, the greatest demographic challenge to human welfare is not low fertility and population aging, but rather the high fertility rates and rapid population growth still seen in Pakistan, much of the Middle East, and Africa. LONDON […]
Risks to the Global Economy in 2019
Adam Gault/Getty Image Risks to the Global Economy in 2019 Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo […]
An Optimist’s Guide to Climate Change
Tom Werner/Getty Images An Optimist’s Guide to Climate Change Grim environmental news is nothing new, but 2018 brought a deluge of it, and some now argue that the world has reached the point of no return for climate change. But new research shows that it is not too late to change course. WASHINGTON, DC – […]
Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints
Sirinarth Mekvorawuth/EyeEm/Getty Images Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive. […]
Climate Change Action Cannot Ignore Social Issues
Gideon Mendel For Action Aid/ In Pictures/Corbis via Getty Images Climate Change Action Cannot Ignore Social Issues Despite a series of troubling new reports and studies, the world has yet to respond adequately to the threat posed by global warming. One reason is that policymakers have not made the connection between climate action and the […]
Europe’s Year of Living Defensively
Ian Waldie/Getty Images Europe’s Year of Living Defensively With the future of the EU-UK relationship shrouded in uncertainty and crises brewing in France, Italy, and elsewhere, 2019 will be another difficult year for Europe. And if populist forces prevail in the European Parliament election in May, it could be an impossible one. BERLIN – From […]
The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America
Getty Images The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants and policymakers alike into a […]
From Economic Crisis to World War III
Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images From Economic Crisis to World War III The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come […]
The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis
Carl Court/Getty Images The Makings of a 2020 Recession and Financial Crisis Although the global economy has been undergoing a sustained period of synchronized growth, it will inevitably lose steam as unsustainable fiscal policies in the US start to phase out. Come 2020, the stage will be set for another downturn – and, unlike in […]
