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More War Means More Inflation
Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images More War Means More Inflation Advanced economies and emerging markets are increasingly engaged in necessary “wars” – some real, some metaphorical – that will lead to even larger fiscal deficits, more debt monetization, and higher inflation on a persistent basis. The future will be stagflationary, and the only question is […]
The Gathering Stagflationary Storm
STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images The Gathering Stagflationary Storm While recent shocks have made the current inflationary surge and growth slowdown more acute, they are hardly the global economy’s only problems. Even without them, the medium-term outlook would be darkening, owing to a broad range of economic, political, environmental, and demographic trends. NEW YORK – […]
The End of Free-Lunch Economics
STEFANI REYNOLDSAFP via Getty Images The End of Free-Lunch Economics Since the global financial crisis, and particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal and monetary policymakers have operated as if there are no tradeoffs to their expansionary policy programs. Now that economic conditions have changed, they may soon have to relearn old lessons the hard way. […]
The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis
Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images The Looming Stagflationary Debt Crisis Years of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies have put the global economy on track for a slow-motion train wreck in the coming years. When the crash comes, the stagflation of the 1970s will be combined with the spiraling debt crises of the post-2008 era, leaving […]
The COVID Class War
The COVID Class War The European Union’s proposed recovery fund to counter the pandemic’s economic fallout seems destined to leave the majority in every member state worse off. Finance will again be protected, if badly, while workers are left to foot the bill through new rounds of austerity. ATHENS – The euro crisis that erupted […]
The Unspoken Reason for Lockdowns
The Unspoken Reason for Lockdowns Governments cannot openly admit that the “controlled easing” of COVID-19 lockdowns in fact means controlled progress toward so-called herd immunity to the virus. Much better, then, to pursue this objective silently, under a cloud of obfuscation, and hope that a vaccine will arrive before most of the population gets infected. […]
Adapting to a Fast-Forward World
Adapting to a Fast-Forward World The world is going through a period of accelerating change, as four secular developments illustrate. Firms and governments must make timely adjustments, not only to their business models and operational approaches, but also to both their tactical and strategic mindsets. LONDON – Firms and governments must increasingly internalize the possibility […]
The White Swans of 2020
The White Swans of 2020 Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from […]
The Biometric Threat
The Biometric Threat As with so many other convenient technologies, the world is underestimating the risks associated with biometric identification systems. India has learned about those risks the hard way – and should serve as a cautionary tale to the governments and corporations seeking to expand the use of these technologies. NEW DELHI – Around […]
Empty Gestures on Climate Change
Empty Gestures on Climate Change When climate campaigners urge people to change their everyday behavior, they trivialize the challenge of global warming. The one individual action that citizens could take that would make a real difference would be to demand a vast increase in spending on green-energy research and development. MALMÖ – Switch to energy-efficient […]
The Problem With “Green” Monetary Policy
The Problem With “Green” Monetary Policy Although there is increasing support for the idea that central banks should actively contribute to the fight against climate change, monetary policymakers have no mandate to do so, and for good reason. Tackling climate change is – and must remain – the responsibility of elected governments and parliaments. FRANKFURT […]
The Growing Threat of Water Wars
The Growing Threat of Water Wars In 2015, United Nations member states adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, which include an imperative to “ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.” Yet, in the last four years, matters have deteriorated significantly. NEW DELHI – The dangers of environmental pollution receive a lot of […]
Is the Global Dollar in Jeopardy?
Is the Global Dollar in Jeopardy? The US Federal Reserve is right to be concerned, if not worried, about the greenback’s dominance of international trade and finance. Fortunately for consumers, growing potential competitive pressure – call it the Libra effect – creates an incentive to make the existing system work better. WASHINGTON, DC – Since […]
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits
The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it. NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom […]
Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy
Four Collision Courses for the Global Economy Between US President Donald Trump’s zero-sum disputes with China and Iran, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s brinkmanship with Parliament and the European Union, and Argentina’s likely return to Peronist populism, the fate of the global economy is balancing on a knife edge. Any of these scenarios could lead […]
