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Unfunded Promises
Unfunded Promises In describing the global debt train wreck these last few weeks, I’ve discovered a common problem. Many of us define “debt” way too narrowly. A debt occurs when you receive something now in exchange for a promise to give something back later. It doesn’t have to be cash. If you borrow your neighbor’s […]
The Pension Train Has No Seat Belts
The Pension Train Has No Seat Belts In describing various economic train wrecks these last few weeks, I may have given the wrong impression about trains. I love riding the train on the East Coast or in Europe. They’re usually a safe and efficient way to travel. And I can sit and read and work, […]
Train Crash Preview
Train Crash Preview Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever […]
Bain: Collision Of Demographics, Automation, And Inequality Signals Societal Catastrophe
Bain: Collision Of Demographics, Automation, And Inequality Signals Societal Catastrophe Earlier this month, John Mauldin hosted the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, a three-day investor conference with 20 financial experts discussing everything from the global economic outlook for the next 12-months, along with trading strategies to overcome significant geopolitical, economic, and technological risks. One panel was […]
John Mauldin: Trade Wars Could Trigger “The Next Great Depression”
John Mauldin: Trade Wars Could Trigger “The Next Great Depression” Last week on Erik Townsend’s Macrovoices podcast, Jim Grant, storied credit investor and founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, explained the reasoning behind his call that the great secular bond bear market actually began in the aftermath of the UK’s Brexit vote during the summer […]
Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe: “Today’s Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom”
Fourth Turning’s Neil Howe: “Today’s Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom” John Mauldin interviewed Fourth Turning best-selling author and demographics expert, Neil Howe about generational changes and their effect on the markets, during a session at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018. Howe said that demographics and generational factors have a huge impact on equity prices in the […]
Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data
Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data Invisible Derivatives Giant Mystery Zero Confidence Sonoma and the SIC in San Diego Federal Reserve officials like to say their policy course is “data-dependent.” That sounds very cautious and intelligent, but what does it actually mean? Which data and who’s interpreting it? Let’s ask a few questions. Photo: Federal Reserve […]
A Fly in the Economic Ointment?
A Fly in the Economic Ointment? Global Growth Cap Repeating History Flying Blind at 20X China Chills Sonoma and San Diego The holidays are fading from memory, and 2018 is off to a good start, economically speaking. Most of the forecasts I’ve read expect a good year – not a blockbuster year or a horrendous […]
Quantitative Tightening Is the Biggest Economic Threat in 2018
Quantitative Tightening Is the Biggest Economic Threat in 2018 In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed and other central banks deployed zero or near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, and assorted other interventions. These may have averted an even worse disaster, but their impacts were far from ideal. Nonetheless, the economy slowly lifted off […]
The Next Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is
The Next Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is This is something I’ve been pondering for some time. I think the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space. Dodd–Frank has greatly limited the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit […]
The Pension Storm Is Coming To Europe—It May Be The End Of Europe As We Know It
The Pension Storm Is Coming To Europe—It May Be The End Of Europe As We Know It I’ve written a lot about US public pension funds lately. Many of them are underfunded and will never be able to pay workers the promised benefits—at least without dumping a huge and unwelcome bill on taxpayers. And since […]
Global Retirement Reality
Global Retirement Reality Global Shortfall UK Time Bomb Swiss Cheese Retirement Pay-As-You-Go Woes Lisbon, Denver, Lugano, and Hong Kong Today we’ll continue to size up the bull market in governmental promises. As we do so, keep an old trader’s slogan in mind: “That which cannot go on forever, won’t.” Or we could say it differently: […]
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years
Americans Don’t Grasp The Magnitude Of The Looming Pension Tsunami That May Hit Us Within 10 Years Total unfunded liabilities in state and local pensions have roughly quintupled in the last decade. You read that right—not doubled, tripled, or quadrupled—quintupled. That’s nice when it happens on a slot machine, not so nice when it’s money you owe. […]
Boomers Are Turning 71—These 4 Charts Paint A Perfect Storm It Will Set Off For Investors
Boomers Are Turning 71—These 4 Charts Paint A Perfect Storm It Will Set Off For Investors Few investors understand the magnitude of the looming demographic crisis and its ramifications. The first Baby Boomers turned 70 last year. At the same time, the US fertility rate is at its lowest point since records began in 1909. […]
MAULDIN: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018
MAULDIN: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis. By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses […]
