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Everything Is Broken
Everything Is Broken Broken Credit Broken Retirement Broken Stocks Broken Data Broken Unemployment System Puerto Rico, Vaccines, and Some Good News Broken lines, broken strings, Broken threads, broken springs, Broken idols, broken heads, People sleeping in broken beds —Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken” from the album Oh Mercy, 1989 I was on a client call earlier […]
Survival of the Biggest
Survival of the Biggest Small Business Slaughter Triumph of Bigness Zombie Companies Small Business Startups Are Increasing Final Thoughts and Valuations The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process… At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction. …Situations emerge in the process of creative destruction […]
This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago
This Was All Predicted 10 Years Ago In 2010, the scientific journal Nature published a collection of opinions looking ahead 10 years, i.e., where we are right now. Nature then published a short response from zoologist Peter Turchin in its February 2010 issue. Quantitative historical analysis reveals that complex human societies are affected by recurrent — and predictable — waves of political […]
Prelude to Crisis
Prelude to Crisis Simple ConceitRadical ActionsBallooning Balance SheetMerry Christmas and the Happiest New Year Ignoring problems rarely solves them. You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. The older you get, the more you know that is true in almost every area of life. […]
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash
Corporate Debt Is At Risk Of A Flash Crash The world is awash in debt. While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape. The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more. But regardless, everyone’s “real” […]
The Problem With Keynesian Economics
The Problem With Keynesian Economics In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote: “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to […]
Japanified World Ahead
Japanified World Ahead Losing DecadesToo Much, Too FastA $10 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance SheetMastering Private MarketsLiving on Puerto Rico Time Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions […]
Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes – “Something wicked this way comes” warns John Mauldin– Shaky China: Chinese landing could be harder than expected– Brexit and EU Breakage: “I have long thought the EU will eventually fall apart”– Helpless Europe: If Germany sneezes, their banks & the rest […]
Bear Markets, Fed Mistakes, and Quick Shots from John
Bear Markets, Fed Mistakes, and Quick Shots from John Powell Was Right but the Fed Is Wrong Time for an Emergency Fed Meeting Living on Island Time Quick Shots from the Frontline A winters day, In a deep and dark December… “Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually […]
A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility Getty Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.” Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash yet. Whether it’s wise or not depends on what you buy. Debt to educate yourself so […]
Debt Alarm Ringing
Debt Alarm Ringing Addicted to Debt Lost Exorbitant Privilege Trigger Points Frankfurt, Cleveland, Golf, and Here and There Is debt good or bad? The answer is “Yes.” Debt is future spending pulled forward in time. It lets you buy something now for which you otherwise don’t have cash available yet. Whether it’s wise or not […]
China for the Trade Win?
China for the Trade Win? Empire of Debt Debt in Pictures Wargaming the Trade War Some Thoughts on Getting Through the Great Debt Reset San Francisco, Frankfurt, and Puerto Rico? With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders […]
These Four Predicted The Global Financial Crisis; Here’s What They Think Causes The Next One
These Four Predicted The Global Financial Crisis; Here’s What They Think Causes The Next One A different kind of hurricane slammed into the American East coast, the nation and ultimately the world ten years ago today. Amidst the multiple introspective columns and soul searching that naturally occurred this week, which looked back on the missed warning signs […]
“This Will Be The Mother Of All Minsky Moments”
“This Will Be The Mother Of All Minsky Moments” We have all had the fun as kids of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic bucket and making sandpiles? Slowly pouring the sand into ever bigger piles, until one side of the pile starts to collapse? In his very […]
The Debt Train Will Crash
The Debt Train Will Crash Off the Tracks Woes to Come Growing Leverage Pension Problems We are approaching the end of the debt Train Wreck series. I’ve spent several weeks explaining why I think excessive debt is dragging the world economy toward an epic crash. The tracks ahead are clear for now but will not […]
