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Tag Archives: global growth
The Antidote to Optimism
The Antidote to Optimism It is always brightest before they turn the lights out. You can quote us on that, Dear Reader. Just when you thought things couldn’t get better… guess what? They don’t. They go dark as a dungeon. Antidote to Optimism Our task today is to show that however wonderful things may appear […]
A Fly in the Economic Ointment?
A Fly in the Economic Ointment? Global Growth Cap Repeating History Flying Blind at 20X China Chills Sonoma and San Diego The holidays are fading from memory, and 2018 is off to a good start, economically speaking. Most of the forecasts I’ve read expect a good year – not a blockbuster year or a horrendous […]
We Give Up! Government Spending And Deficits Soar Pretty Much Everywhere – John Rubino
We Give Up! Government Spending And Deficits Soar Pretty Much Everywhere – John Rubino A recurring pattern of the past few decades involves governments promising to limit their borrowing, only to discover that hardly anyone cares. So target dates slip, bonds are issued, and the debts keep rising. This time around the timing is especially […]
Caution: Slowdown
Caution: Slowdown Many of you know I keep posting charts keeping taps on the macro picture in the Macro Corner. It’s actually an interesting exercise watching what they do versus what they say. Public narratives versus reality on the ground. I know there’s a lot of talk of global synchronized expansion. I call synchronized bullshit. […]
The Normalization Delusion
The Normalization Delusion LONDON – There is a psychological bias to believe that exceptional events eventually give way to a return to “normal times.” Many economic commentators now focus on prospects for “exit” from nearly a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, with central banks reducing their balance sheets to “normal” levels and gradually raising interest […]
Toxic Loans Around the World Weigh on Global Growth
Toxic Loans Around the World Weigh on Global Growth [ Since 2008 people have been struggling to pay back increasing amounts of debt. China is the worst of all, with $5 to $6.6 trillion dollars of bad debt and $30 trillion overall debt, up from $9 trillion just 7 years ago, a staggering amount of money, […]
The Global Growth Funk
The Global Growth Funk NEW YORK – The International Monetary Fund and others have recently revised downward their forecasts for global growth – yet again. Little wonder: The world economy has few bright spots – and many that are dimming rapidly. Among advanced economies, the United States has just experienced two quarters of growth averaging […]
2016, The Year Of The Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility
2016, The Year Of The Red Monkey: Expect Wild, Unending Volatility The past 25 years of “growth” and brief recessions may not be a good guide to the next few years. In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey […]
World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis
World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Those are the burning questions that keep central bankers (not to mention […]
2016: The Year Wishful Thinking Fails
2016: The Year Wishful Thinking Fails If we collectively choose wishful thinking, catastrophic consequences are guaranteed. Wishful thinking has been an integral driver of the “recovery” 2009-2015:asset bubbles aren’t bubbles, central bank policies are brilliantly successful, unemployment has dropped to levels of full employment, and so on. The problems with wishful thinking that I describe in […]
Ifo WorldEconomic Climate Index: 1Q 2016
Ifo WorldEconomic Climate Index: 1Q 2016 Global growth leading indicators are screaming it, Baltic Dry Index is screaming it, PMIs are screaming it, BRICS are living it, and now Ifo surveys are showing it: global economy is heading into a storm. The latest warning is from the Ifo World Economic Climate Index. Per Ifo release: […]
The Paris Gravity Well, Part II: Trillionization
The Paris Gravity Well, Part II: Trillionization “We will not suddenly convert steel mills, cement kilns and road surfacing machines to operate on sunbeams.” Charlie said, “That’s the trouble. You see it the way the banking industry sees it and they make money by manipulating money irrespective of effects in the real world. You’ve spent […]
Extreme Weather and Global Growth
Extreme Weather and Global Growth CAMBRIDGE – Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don’t matter much for economic activity. Construction hiring may be stronger than usual in a March when the weather is unseasonably mild, but there will be payback in April and May. If heavy rains discourage […]
Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself
Why Big Oil Should Kill Itself LONDON – Now that oil prices have settled into a long-term range of $30-50 per barrel (as described here a year ago), energy users everywhere are enjoying an annual income boost worth more than $2 trillion. The net result will almost certainly accelerate global growth, because the beneficiaries of this enormous income […]
The Chilling Thing Gartner Just Said About a Once Hot Engine of Global Growth
The Chilling Thing Gartner Just Said About a Once Hot Engine of Global Growth Hope took another hit from the reality of fickle, strung-out consumers. Apple sold 1.5 million watches during the first week, about 200,000 a day, its most successful product launch ever. Before the launch, media hype had become a total-immersion program. No […]
