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Chinese Debt Could Cause Emerging Markets to Implode
CHINESE DEBT COULD CAUSE EMERGING MARKETS TO IMPLODE The novel coronavirus has brought the world economy to a grinding halt. Global growth is set to fall from 2.9 percent last year into deep negative territory in 2020—the only year besides 2009 that this has happened since World War II. Recovery will likely be slow and […]
The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff
The World Is Awash in Oil, False Assurances, Magical Thinking and Complacency as Global Demand Careens Toward a Cliff This collapse of price will manifest in all sorts of markets that are based on debt-funded purchases of desires rather than a warily prudent priority on needs. Since markets are supposed to discover the price of excesses and scarcities, […]
OECD Sees Global Growth At Decade-Low As WTO Warns Of “Doomsday Scenario”
OECD Sees Global Growth At Decade-Low As WTO Warns Of “Doomsday Scenario” Global growth is quickly plunging to levels not seen since the financial crisis as the risk of long-term stagnation has developed, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. The world economy is expected to grow at a decade-low of 2.9% this year and remain […]
“Close To A Standstill”: IMF Warns Global Growth Will Be Cut To Lowest Since Lehman
“Close To A Standstill”: IMF Warns Global Growth Will Be Cut To Lowest Since Lehman Don’t expect any good news next week when the IMF holds its annual meeting and releases its latest World Economic Outlook report due on October 15. According to the IMF’s new head, Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva, the monetary fund will again […]
OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook, Warns Germany Already In Recession
OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook, Warns Germany Already In Recession In one of the most downbeat forecasts on the global economy that we’ve seen so far this year, the Paris-based organization of wealthy nations known as the OECD – the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development – warned that the global economy is heading toward a […]
2019 Headwinds Are Getting Stronger
2019 Headwinds Are Getting Stronger In 2017, every prominent economic forecasting entity was shouting from the rooftops about “synchronized global growth.” This was a reference to the fact that not only were certain economies growing, but they were all growing at the same time. Chinese GDP growth had come down but was still substantial at […]
“Jarring” FedEx Outlook Cut Suggests “Severe Global Recession”
“Jarring” FedEx Outlook Cut Suggests “Severe Global Recession” FedEx shares tumbled 7% after what Morgan Stanley called a “jarring” cut to its annual forecasts, suggesting global growth is slowing far more than most expect, and prompting expectations of an “uber-dovish hike” by the Fed. The global logistics bellwether slashed its outlook just three months after […]
Market crash? Another red card for the economy
Market crash? Another red card for the economy A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and leading economies. Unfortunately, since then, those imbalances have continued to rise […]
We Have Entered The Zone When Yields Trigger Market Selloffs
We Have Entered The Zone When Yields Trigger Market Selloffs With payrolls now in the rearview mirror and nothing too outlandish revealed in the generally goldilocks data, traders have resumed contemplating the one question that is on everyone’s mind: how much higher (and at what pace) will rates rise before stocks are slammed? To be […]
Beware The Zombies: BIS Warns That Non-Viable Firms Are Crippling Global Growth
Beware The Zombies: BIS Warns That Non-Viable Firms Are Crippling Global Growth Ten years after central banks unleashed a period of record low interest rates, the central banks’ central bank is warning that this may not have been the smartest move. In the latest quarterly review from the Bank of International Settlements, the Basel-based organization […]
Why Global Growth Hit A Wall: China Credit Growth Continues To Slow
Why Global Growth Hit A Wall: China Credit Growth Continues To Slow QUICK TAKE: In short, our thesis is that city-level and regional macroprudential tightening policies in China currently will render economic growth in 2Q18, but more importantly 2H18, dismal; we believe this will spread to emerging markets, rendering the “global coordinated growth” bulls out […]
Synchronized Global Growth is Ending: Shocks Come Next
Synchronized Global Growth is Ending: Shocks Come Next Economic pleasant surprises are in the past, as is the buildup of the balance sheet. The future is deleveraging. Alarm bells are ringing. No one cares. By now, everyone knows stock only go up. For those in tune with other ideas, Financial Times writer Stephen King suggests […]
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia
Global Growth? Retail Sales Flop in US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia Consumers unexpectedly threw in the towel in 5 countries but the central banks and the IMF insist everything is fine. On February 14, I noted US Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too. This will impact both 4th quarter and first quarter GDP estimates. On […]
Weekly Commentary: The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation
Weekly Commentary: The Grand Crowded Trade of Financial Speculation Even well into 2017, variations of the “secular stagnation” thesis remained popular within the economics community. Accelerating synchronized global growth notwithstanding, there’s been this enduring notion that economies are burdened by “insufficient aggregate demand.” The “natural rate” (R-Star) has sunk to a historical low. Conviction in […]
The Abnormality of Oil
Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Image The Abnormality of Oil At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the […]
