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Tag Archives: economica
Seeds of Market Collapse in the Federal Reserve’s “Autopilot” Balance Sheet Normalization
Seeds of Market Collapse in the Federal Reserve’s “Autopilot” Balance Sheet Normalization A lot of talk last week centered around the potential for the Federal Reserve to revise their planned “normalization” of holdings on their balance sheet. In particular in the post FOMC press conference, Powell said, “I think that the runoff of the balance sheet […]
Global Economy On Precipice of Secular Decline…Detailed via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, and Consumption
Global Economy On Precipice of Secular Decline…Detailed via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, and Consumption Many look at global population growth as a given to greater consumption…and looking at the chart below of total global population set to hit 7.8 billion by 2020, one might be forgiven for this viewpoint. However, the reality, when one looks […]
No Seller, Let Alone China, Can Disrupt US via Selling US Treasury’s…But the “Why” Ain’t Good
No Seller, Let Alone China, Can Disrupt US via Selling US Treasury’s…But the “Why” Ain’t Good I often read that China may retaliate against US trade sanctions by further decreasing their US Treasury holdings, sending Treasury yields significantly higher, thus blowing out US deficit spending on interest payments. Trouble is, Chinese Treasury holdings peaked in 2014 […]
America’s Greatest Crisis Upon Us…Debt to GDP Makes It Clear
America’s Greatest Crisis Upon Us…Debt to GDP Makes It Clear America in the midst of its greatest crisis in its 242 years of existence. I say this based upon the US federal debt to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio. In the history of the US, at the onset of every war or crisis, a period of federal […]
“Will The Real Global Economy Please Stand Up”
“Will The Real Global Economy Please Stand Up” To say I’ve become skeptical of “markets” and their movements is probably an understatement. However, rather than waste more time trying to make sense of these skewed markets, I believe real economic activity is more accurately represented by changing populations and their energy consumption. So today, we’ll play a little […]
What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large
What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large To see the future, sometimes you have to look to the past. Japan is patient zero in the global epidemic of slowing growth and although Japan was assumed to be the emerging world power in the ’80’s, we now know better. The title […]
Who Is It That Wants to Buy Trillions of US Treasury’s???
Who Is It That Wants to Buy Trillions of US Treasury’s??? As of the latest Treasury update showing federal debt as of Wednesday, February 15…federal debt (red line below) jumped by an additional $50 billion from the previous day to $20.76 trillion. This is an increase of $266 billion essentially since the most recent debt ceiling passage. Of course, […]
China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending!
China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending! Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand as China shifts from exporter to consumer. These economists postulate that rising domestic demand coupled with continued growth as the global exporter will push both China and the global economy into high gear. China suggests that it will achieve 6.5% […]
Bubble-nomics
Bubble-nomics Question: What is a bubble? Answer: A bubble is trade in an asset at a price range that strongly exceeds the asset’s intrinsic value. Or it could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future. Question: How do you know […]
The Tale of Two America’s…Urban Rise, Rural Demise, Rationale to Hyper-Monetize
The Tale of Two America’s…Urban Rise, Rural Demise, Rationale to Hyper-Monetize (The following was written as an outline for a potential book. To this point no publisher has shown interest and time and funds have run out.) America is in the midst of an ongoing and accelerating shift in demographics and population growth. These trends, long […]
Why The Next Recession Will Morph into a Decades Long Depressionary Event…Or Worse
Why The Next Recession Will Morph into a Decades Long Depressionary Event…Or Worse Economists spend inordinate time gauging the business cycle that they believe drives the US economy. However, the real engine running in the background (and nearly entirely forgotten) is the population cycle. The positive population cycle is such a long running macro trend thousands of years […]
Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday)
Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday) Some simple themes today… Population growth, economic growth, and resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing. The Federal Reserve knows it can not stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with interest rate cuts to incent greater consumption via skyrocketing credit/debt (particularly government debt….debt that is undertaken with […]
Energy Consumption vs. Core Populations – Trending Down Together
Energy Consumption vs. Core Populations – Trending Down Together In this article, I want to spend a little time reviewing two of the most relatively reliable data sets, population size/growth and energy consumption/growth. I’ll compare the total energy consumption of nations / groupings of nations vs. their core (25-54yr/old) employed populations and total core (25-54yr/old) populations. What’s the […]
Policy Makers, like Generals, Are Busy Fighting The Last War
Policy Makers, like Generals, Are Busy Fighting The Last War The Maginot Line formed France’s main line of defense on its German facing border from Belgium in the North to Switzerland in the South. It was constructed during the 1930s, with the trench-based warfare of World War One still firmly in the minds of the […]
