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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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A Warning Knell From the Housing Market–Inciting a Riot

A WARNING KNELL FROM THE HOUSING MARKET – INCITING A RIOT? Global residential real estate prices continue to rise but momentum is slowing Prices in Russia continue to fall but Australian house prices look set to follow After a decade of QE, real estate will be more sensitive to interest rate increases As anyone who […]

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The Risk of a Correction in the Equity Bull Market

THE RISK OF A CORRECTION IN THE EQUITY BULL MARKET Rising commodity prices, including oil, are feeding through to PPI Unemployment data suggests wages may begin to rise faster Federal Reserve tightening will continue, other Central Banks may follow The bull market will be nine years old in March, the second longest in history Since […]

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China–Leading Indicator? Stocks, Credit Policy, Rebalancing and Money Supply

CHINA – LEADING INDICATOR? STOCKS, CREDIT POLICY, REBALANCING AND MONEY SUPPLY Chinese 10yr bond yields have been rising steadily since October 2016. They never reached the low or negative levels of Japan or Germany. 1yr bonds bottomed earlier at 1.76% in June 2015 having tested 1% back in 2009. The pattern and path of Chinese […]

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Is Chinese Growth About to Falter?

IS CHINESE GROWTH ABOUT TO FALTER?  The IMF revised Chinese growth forecasts higher in July – were they premature? Retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment have slowed The Real Estate sector is still buoyant but home price increases are moderating Narrow money supply growth has slowed, other parts of the economy will follow China […]

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Does the Rising Price of Industrial Metals Herald the Beginning of the Next Commodity Super-Cycle?

DOES THE RISING PRICE OF INDUSTRIAL METALS HERALD THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT COMMODITY SUPER-CYCLE?  Super-cycle theory In a 2012 paper for the United Nations/DESA – Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century – Bilge Erten and José Antonio Ocampo review the literature on the theory of Commodity Super-Cycles and go on to suggest that the […]

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A History of Fractional Reserve Banking–Or Why Interest Rates Are the Most Important Influence on Stock Market Valuations? Part 1

A HISTORY OF FRACTIONAL RESERVE BANKING – OR WHY INTEREST RATES ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT INFLUENCE ON STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS? PART 1 William Hogarth – The South Sea Bubble The South Sea Company was founded in 1711. The company was part of the treaty during the War of Spanish Succession, which was traded in return […]

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Will Japan Be the First to Test the Limits of Quantitative Easing?

WILL JAPAN BE THE FIRST TO TEST THE LIMITS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING? The Japanese stock market peaked in December 1989, marking the end of a period of economic expansion which briefly saw Japan eclipse the USA to become the world’s largest economy. Since its zenith, Japan has struggled. I wrote about this topic, in relation […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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