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Soaring Dollar, Plunging Oil, Crummy Global Growth | Wolf Street
Soaring Dollar, Plunging Oil, Crummy Global Growth | Wolf Street.
This chart juxtaposes the price of Brent crude oil and the US Dollar Index (the outdated currency basket composed of the euro, yen, UK pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona). As the dollar has soared, the price of Brent crude in dollars has plunged.
Or we might say that the euro has dropped and the yen has plunged for reasons of their own, including their central banks’ commitment to a total currency war. So the hapless consumers in Japan won’t even be able to benefit at the pump from the plunge in the price of oil, as we’re doing in the US. Thanks to the Bank of Japan’s yen-destruction policies, they have to pay for it with their rapidly shrinking yen.
It gives us a near-perfect mirror image of the price of Brent and the Dollar Index:
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Brent Crude Tests $80/barrel Price Level on Saudi Comments – WSJ.com
Brent Crude Tests $80/barrel Price Level on Saudi Comments – WSJ.com.
Brent crude recouped early losses to trade around the $80 a barrel mark in Asian trade Thursday, after dropping below the key psychological price level earlier in the session.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at $77.04 a barrel at 0445 GMT, down $0.14 in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.36 to $80.02 a barrel.
Oil markets were reacting to Wednesday’s comments from Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, the largest producing member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and weaker oil market forecasts by energy agencies.
The comments of the oil minister, the first in nearly two months came even as oil prices swung wildly on speculation about the country’s market strategy.
The international oil market and Saudi oil policy have been subject to a great deal of wild and inaccurate conjecture in recent weeks, but the policy has remained constant in the past few decades and has not changed today, Mr. al-Naimi said.
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Peak Oil Notes – Oct 16
The price plunge which began in mid-June when New York oil futures trading around $105 a barrel continued this week with oil touching $80 on Wednesday before recovering to close at $81.78. London’s Brent crude underwent a similar collapse to close yesterday at $83.46. Weak demand: increasing US shale oil production: a stronger dollar; and the refusal of the Saudis and its Gulf Arab allies to cut production combined to trigger the decline. US retail gasoline fell to an average of $3.17 a gallon, the lowest since February 2011. The weekly stocks report will be delayed until Thursday, but analysts are expecting a 2 million barrel increase in US crude inventories.
The IEA confirmed the weakness in the world oil markets this week by cutting their forecast for the increase in global oil demand by this year by 250,000 b/d from last month’s estimate. The Agency now believes that growth in consumption this year will be only 700,000 b/d, but will increase to 1.1 million b/d in 2015 as the global economy improves.
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