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The Ugly Truth
The Ugly Truth For years critics of central bank policy have been dismissed as negative nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us all in the face: Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth and now the jig is up. As I’ve been saying for a […]
“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own
“Peak QE”: This Is What Share Of The Market Central Banks Now Own After a decade of unprecedented liquidity injections by central banks to preserve the western financial system, global QE has peaked. First, the aggregate balance sheet of major central banks started to shrink earlier in the year, a reversal that took investors many […]
Has “It” Finally Arrived?
Shutterstock Has “It” Finally Arrived? Is this week’s 6% market drop the start of the Big One? With the recent plunge in the S&P 500 of over 5%, has the long-anticipated (and long-overdue) market correction finally begun? It’s hard to say for certain. But the systemic cracks we’ve been closely monitoring definitely got an awful […]
Stocks Drop As Trade War Returns; Japanese Bond Rout Leads To Emergency Margin Call
Stocks Drop As Trade War Returns; Japanese Bond Rout Leads To Emergency Margin Call The latest trade war truce lasted less than a day, and after stocks jumped yesterday following an early report that Mnuchin had resumed trade talks with his Chinese counterpart, a late Tuesday report that the Trump admin is planning to increase […]
BOJ Intervenes For Third Time In A Week: Offers To Buy Unlimited Bonds To Stabilize Markets
BOJ Intervenes For Third Time In A Week: Offers To Buy Unlimited Bonds To Stabilize Markets Ahead of the potentially dramatic BOJ decision tonight, the Japanese bond market is becoming increasingly jittery. After 10Y JGBs sold off early in the session, with yields rising as high as 0.11% – the highest level in almost a […]
China Launches Quasi QE To Support Banks And Sliding Bond Market
China Launches Quasi QE To Support Banks And Sliding Bond Market With the ECB’s QE coming to an end at the end of the year (absent some shock to the market or economy), some traders have already been voicing concerns which central bank will step in and provide a backstop to the global fixed income […]
Watch Live: The World’s Top 3 Central Bankers Discuss What’s Next
Watch Live: The World’s Top 3 Central Bankers Discuss What’s Next Update: Powell has maintained his hawkish tone from last week’s press conference with his comments in Sintra on the labor market and monetary policy. He expressed confidence in the US economy and said “the case for continued gradual rate hikes is strong.” According to […]
Weekly Commentary: The Great Fallacy
Weekly Commentary: The Great Fallacy A big week in the world of monetary management: The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 bps, the ECB announced plans to wind down its historic QE program, and the Bank of Japan clung to its “powerful monetary easing” inflationist scheme. A tense People’s Bank of China left rate policy unchanged, […]
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall
A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall The prospects for the rest of the year are awful Après moi, le déluge ~ King Louis XV of France A hard rain’s a-gonna fall ~ Bob Dylan (the first) As the Federal Reserve kicked off its second round of quantitative easing in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, hedge fund […]
Is the US Exporting a Recession?
IS THE US EXPORTING A RECESSION? The Federal Reserve continue to raise rates as S&P earnings beat estimates The ECB and BoJ maintain QE Globally, corporations rely on US$ financing, nonetheless Signs of a slowdown in growth are clearer outside the US After last week’s ECB meeting, Mario Draghi gave the usual press conference. He confirmed […]
Japan Expects to Hit 2% Inflation in 5 Years, Aggressive Easing Will Continue
Japan Expects to Hit 2% Inflation in 5 Years, Aggressive Easing Will Continue The BOJ thinks Japan may hit its 2% inflation target in 5 years. Kuroda says risks are to the downside. It may take Japan five more years to reach its 2% inflation targetaccording to BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. “Sometime within the next […]
Monetary Policy is a Complete Failure? Will Shutting Down the Fed Solve All the Problems?
Monetary Policy is a Complete Failure? Will Shutting Down the Fed Solve All the Problems? I recently did an interview and was asked about the Federal Reserve. There is so much absolute nonsense sophistry that circulates where people think that ending the central bank will somehow cure everything. I really just laid it out plain […]
Central Bank Money Rules the World
Central Bank Money Rules the World Central bank credit that supports markets — is not just creation of the Fed, but by central banks and institutions around the world colluding together. Global markets are too deeply connected these days to consider the Fed in isolation. Since last month’s correction, the world has been watching the […]
Weekly Commentary: Cracks
Weekly Commentary: Cracks After posting an inter-week high of 25,800 on Tuesday, the DJIA then dropped 1,583 points (6.1%) at the week’s Friday morning low (24,218) – before closing the session at 24,538 (down 3.0% for the week). The VIX traded as low as 15.29 Tuesday. It then closed Wednesday at 19.85, jumped as high […]
