Home » Posts tagged 'us federal reserve' (Page 10)

Tag Archives: us federal reserve

Bloomberg News recently solicited advice from Argentinians who lived through that country’s high inflation on how Americans should cope with rising inflation. The Argentinians suggested Americans spend their paychecks as fast as possible to avoid future price increases. They also suggested taking out loans that can be paid back later in devalued currency.

These strategies may make sense for individuals. However, encouraging debt and discouraging savings is disastrous for the country. Relying on debt and spending one’s paycheck immediately encourages people to seek instant gratification instead of planning for the future. This depletes both economic and moral capital.

November’s 9.6 percent increase in the producer price index, combined with the consumer price index’s increase to levels not seen since the early 1980s, shows why fears of inflation have become the public’s number one concern. Even the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that inflation is not just “transitory.”

The Fed recently announced it is accelerating the timetable to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed also announced it is planning three interest rate increases next year. However, the Fed plans to increase rates by no more than one percent. So even if the Fed does follow through on its promise to hike rates, it will do little if anything to combat rising prices. If the Fed allowed interest rates to rise to anything approaching market levels, it would make the federal government’s debt servicing costs unsustainable. This puts tremendous pressure on the Fed to maintain low rates.

The biggest victims of the Federal Reserve’s erosion of the dollar are lower- and middle-class Americans whose paychecks do not keep pace with the Fed-caused price increases. Yet many progressives still cling to the fallacy that average workers somehow benefit from continued dollar devaluation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peter Schiff: There Is No Ceiling on Inflation

December 27, 2021

Peter Schiff: There Is No Ceiling on Inflation

Gold closed out the week before Christmas above $1,800 an ounce, despite rising bond yields. The $1,800 level has been viewed as a ceiling for the price of gold. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said people need to start thinking of $1,800 as a floor. And he said they will once they realize there is no ceiling on inflation.

We got the personal income and spending data for November last week. Incomes grew at a slower pace than projected — 0.4%. Meanwhile, spending was up 0.6%. Obviously, if spending is outpacing income, the difference has to come from somewhere. It appears Americans are dipping into their savings to cope with rising prices. The savings rate declined to 6.9%. That is the lowest level since December 2017.

We also know that consumers are turning to debt to make ends meet, with credit card balances growing at a fast pace.

The savings rate shot up and Americans paid down their credit cards when the government showered them with stimulus. Peter said it appears the stimulus has run out.

Obviously, Americans have now exhausted that windfall. They’ve depleted that savings war-chest that was built up with stimulus money, and now it’s gone. And so, they’re having to go into debt.”

Consumers have a double problem. They’ve run out of savings and consumer prices keep going up. That is robbing people of their purchasing power.

That robber is the government, because it’s the government that’s creating the inflation that is causing the cost of living to go up. But the cost of living is going up, yet consumers have even less savings to afford that increase in the cost of living.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

December 27, 2021

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

The inflation of today is a starkly different creature than what we faced in 1979. The world is massively different and presenting us with a strain of inflation that will most likely be stronger and more difficult to combat without major disruptions to our economy. This article is an attempt to highlight the differences and why today the position we find ourselves in is much more precarious.New data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed price inflation in November rose to the highest in forty years. Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warned the Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not tapering its balance sheet to rein in inflation. Appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” he stated the most significant miscalculation in decades is the Fed’s inability to characterize inflation correctly. It was only on November 30th that Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally retired the term “transitory” and opted to label inflation as persistent.

President Biden responded to rising inflation has been to call upon Congress to pass his Build Back Better plan. Biden claims this will lower how much families pay for health care, prescription drugs, child care, and more.” In reality, of course, the passage of BBB would increase inflationary pressure throughout the economy and only transfer these soaring costs from the individual to the government.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation Is a Policy That Cannot Last

December 26, 2021

Inflation Is a Policy That Cannot Last

Are we heading toward a Fed policy that fixes inflation at a permanent rate of five to six percent?

We could be.

But inflation is a policy that cannot last.

We’re currently experiencing a massive wave of price inflation. This should come as no surprise. The Fed has increased the M2 money supply by around 40% since the end of 2019. The US government showered that newly created money on American consumers in the form of stimulus. Meanwhile, governments effectively shut down the US economy. That led to a big drop in production. This created the perfect inflationary storm. We have more money chasing fewer goods and services.

Prices are rising.

Now the Federal Reserve has a big problem. It needs to tighten monetary policy to take on inflation. But the economy depends on easy money. Economic growth is built on borrowing. Any significant tightening of monetary policy will pop the bubble and the whole house of cards will fall down.

The Fed has finally abandoned the “transitory” inflation narrative and it appears to be getting more serious about addressing the issue. But how will the central bank really play this?

In an article published by the Mises Wire, economist Thorsten Polleit asserts there are basically two scenarios in play.

(1) The Fed means business; it really wants to lower consumer goods price inflation back toward the 2% mark.

(2) The Fed just wants to keep inflation from spiraling out of control, but it does not want to abandon the new regime of increased inflation.

Scenario (1) is not impossible, but it is relatively unlikely. Under the prevailing economic and political doctrine, the Fed is not meant to curb inflation at the expense of triggering another economic and financial crisis…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error

December 26, 2021

The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is A Weapon, Not A Policy Error

Back in 2018 leading up to Christmas the Federal Reserve began publicly flirting with the notion of ending asset purchases, reducing their balance sheet and committing to an all around taper of stimulus. I wrote about it extensively at the time along with my position that the Fed could and would taper, at least for a short period, which would lead to an accelerated crash of stocks. This did in fact happen, but as we all know the Fed reversed course not long after.

This reversal was seen by many as proof that the Fed would “never” actually pursue a full blown taper and that stimulus measures would go on forever. I believed it could be a dry run for a more aggressive taper event down the road. I argued that the fed would continue stimulus until stagflation became evident to the public, and then a careful game of scapegoating would have to be played and another taper would commence.

It is also important to understand that there were many in the economic media that also argued that because the dollar is the preeminent world reserve currency the central bank could print dollars perpetually without inflationary consequences. This notion became a basic fundamental of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

Of course, MMT is utter nonsense. There are ALWAYS consequences for overt money creation even for world reserve currencies. It doesn’t matter if you try to price your national currency without comparisons to foreign currencies; under globalism and economic interdependency the velocity of money matters. If a country is printing with wild abandon, those dollars are going to buy less labor, less production and less goods overseas. Nothing defeats the laws of supply and demand, not even strategic debt creation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chaos and the Triumph of Survival

December 26, 2021

CHAOS AND THE TRIUMPH OF SURVIVAL

One of the most horrifying works of art is Bruegel’s “The Triumph of Death” painted in 1562. The painting depicts the end of life on earth.

I sincerely hope that this is not what the world will literally look like in the next decade or two but metaphorically this is not an unlikely depiction of the chaos that could hit us all.

For a detailed description of the grim painting see here

The Black Death plague of the 14^th century, which killed up to half of the world’s population, clearly had a major influence on the painter.

The moral message is that when chaos hits, the destruction will affect everyone, rich and poor, young and old. No one will escape by power or devotion.

The financial, economic and moral devastation which is about to hit the world will for more than 99.5% of the people come out of the blue like a flash from a clear sky.

For most people, coming events will thus be like the definition of the word CHAOS: “A state of total confusion and disorder”.

CHAOS NUMBER 1: COVID

Talking about disorder, just like the Black Death that inspired Bruegel’s painting, the world is now facing a global pandemic. But rather than the nearer 50% of global population that perished in the mid 1300s, today we are looking at total deaths from the current pandemic of 0.06% of the world population! And even that figure might be overestimated due to the classification rules applied.

For that minuscule percentage the world has now been paralysed for the third year soon.

There are lockdowns, quarantines, compulsory vaccines with unlined boosters, covid passports, closed schools, closed offices, major industries like leisure haemorrhaging, airlines going bankrupt, shortages of labour, components, products, closed borders, and for the few people who dare to and can travel across borders, more bureaucracy, paperwork and tests than in a police state…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

December 23, 2021

Inflation In 2021 Far Different From What We Had In 1979

The idea the economy of 2021 is strong enough to allow a rapid and huge surge in interest rates such as those imposed upon America in 1981 is false. During America’s prior bout with inflation 40 years ago the economy was able to withstand the shock. Yes, we did have a recession, but it was short-lived because the foundation of our economy was much stronger. America was not bleeding from huge trade deficits and people had real jobs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022

December 22, 2021

The Clouds Have Cleared in 2021, and What We Are Seeing Is a Dystopian 2022

Photo by Javier Quiroga

This year was a doozy. Right out of the gate, millionaires were sounding the alarm that the markets were looking overvalued while reducing their risk exposure.

In February we got a taste of what could be the “end game” for the U.S. dollar as we saw it lose more of its grip as global reserve currency. Of course, it won’t collapse overnight because market psychology is still propping it up (for now).

But three big major economic influences have made 2021 one to remember. This chaotic “trifecta of market turbulence” kept the media busy and retirement savers on the edge of their seats.

So without further ado, let’s dive into the first one…

The confused Fed

Back in 2019 when the repo markets started going crazy, we reported how the Fed’s “confused” response only added fuel to a fire that continued to burn into this year.

And this year, one word you might have heard coming from Powell’s mouth with nauseating frequency to describe rising inflation was “transitory.” Over and over again, Powell’s confused Fed kept downplaying inflation…

Until it was obvious to everybody that inflation wasn’t transitory any longer. When Senator Pat Toomey challenged Powell during an appearance before Congress, the Fed chairman was forced to change his tune:

Powell explained that while the word has “different meanings to different people,” the Federal Reserve “tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation.

“I think it’s — it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean,” Powell added.

(We’ll discuss this in greater detail in a moment.)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Peak Inflation Is Here”- Jim Rickards

December 19, 2021

“Peak Inflation Is Here”- Jim Rickards

Peak Inflation Is Here and Gone

Last week Stansberry Investor’s Daniela Cambone interviewed Jim Rickards and got his take on inflation. We think this is a solid interview and Jim makes some good reasonable explanations as to why inflation has done what it has. Rickards puts much of the blame squarely in two places: Supply chain problems, and Biden administration policies.

When asked: Why did used car prices go up? Rickards responded with ‘No new cars were available due to chip issues. People bought used cars.’

His explanation for energy problems is equally sensible. The push into clean energy was too fast and poorly executed. Smart energy companies took advantage of that, as did Russia’s Putin.

The thesis essentially is that money printed isn’t the cause of inflation. The sanitization of the printing via RRP and bond allocations dampen the inflationary effect. For Rickards, the supply chains and Biden Administration fiscal policies are the culprit.

The only area he did not touch upon was rents. That shoe has yet to drop fully. Will it be as easily explained? The other point he makes is the Fed may be raising rates into a recession. Enjoy.

Jim Rickards: We’ve Reached Peak Inflation; The Real Risk in 2022 and Why Cash Is Critical

“Expect inflation to come down very quickly,” due to incoming rate hikes expected from the Federal Reserve, says NYT best-selling author Jim Rickards.

You could see severe, “tightening into weakness,” with a potential of three rate hikes next year, he predicts with our Daniela Cambone during the premiere of this year’s series, Outlook 2022: The Tipping Point.

In order for gold to gain momentum and rise in price, “the dollar has to get weaker,” he says. Having money on the sidelines is vital, according to Rickards, in order to be nimble into the coming year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Chairman Powell Paralyzed With Fear As Inflation Takes Over

December 16, 2021

Chairman Powell Paralyzed With Fear As Inflation Takes Over

Public domain, courtesy of the Federal Reserve

One thing is certain, inflation is no longer officially “transitory.”

For months, recently reappointed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kept telling the public that rising inflation was transitory, and would soon subside.

It hasn’t, and isn’t likely to in the near future either. So the next natural question to think about is: What now, Chairman Powell?

With four major pivots in monetary policy over a short three years, according to CNBC, both Powell and the Fed he leads seem confused about what to do next:

At its two-day meeting next week, the Fed is expected to say it will double the pace of its bond purchase taper, while also likely hinting at more aggressive interest rate hikes coming in 2022. The moves are coming in response to inflation that is stronger and longer-lasting than Fed officials had anticipated.

But [Joseph] LaVorgna worries that the Fed, after months of calling inflation “transitory,” is now making the mistake of overestimating its duration and tightening at the wrong time. That could necessitate officials again having to change back next year, if the current inflation trend runs out of steam. [emphasis added]

Powell’s remarks revealed his confusion about the economy, and why he chose the word “transitory” in the first place:

“We tend to use it to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” he told the Senate Committee. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Inflation Soared to 6.8% in November

December 13, 2021

Inflation Soared to 6.8% in November

Inflation is soaring with no end in sight. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, marking a 6.8% increase in inflation YoY. According to the Labor Department, this is the fastest pace of inflation since June 1982. In addition, Core-CPI rose 0.5% last month, amounting to a 4.9% annual increase, the quickest advancement since 1991.

Energy prices alone have spiked 33.3% in the past year, and gasoline prices are up 58.1%. Over the past 12 months, food and energy prices rose at the most rapid pace in 13 years. Shelter costs, amounting to one-third of CPI, rose 3.8% on an annual basis. This level has not been seen since the 2007 housing crisis wreaked havoc on the US real estate market.

Despite pay increases of 4.8% this year, real hourly earnings decreased 1.9% over the past 12-months. Service costs rose at the fastest pace since 2007 as well, advancing 3.4% over the past year. Apparel costs are also up by 5% since last November. Everywhere you look, prices are drastically rising.

Overall, the cost of living is astronomical. Basic necessities such as food and shelter price increases have caused more middle-class Americans to begin living paycheck to paycheck. The Federal Reserve claimed it would step in if inflation reached an unsustainable level. A 6.8% increase is unsustainable, inflation is not transitory, and neither the government nor the Fed has made a valid effort to control this growing problem.

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

December 12, 2021

Fear and Inflation — The Timeless Policy Tools of Discredited Systems

If you’re wondering why the media, markets and mandates are making less sense despite a constant flow of hard facts contradicting their message, it’s critical to watch what is done rather than said by the policy makers behind the fear and inflation “new normal.”

The Latest Fed-Speak Translation: From “Transitory” to “Persistent” Inflation

To the extent there’s anything exciting about a cornered Jerome Powell, he was at least able to drop some bombshells at his November 30^th meeting before Congress, including a truly cutting-edge observation and fear that inflation forces are “more persistent” and that it’s now time to retire the word “transitory” regarding the same.

Well, Jerome, we could have told you that long, long ago, but this, of course, is no shocker…

More Taper-Talk (Distraction)

Perhaps more “exciting” was his not-so-subtle announcement that the Fed plans to begin a discussion at its next meeting to accelerate the Fed taper by a few months.

Hmmm…

Despite the fact that any Fed Taper will in substance be a “non-taper” given backdoor liquidity tricks from the Standing Rep Facility and FIMA swap lines, the optics of such continued taper-talk will be negative for almost all assets save for the USD, the VIX trade, so-called “safe-haven” Treasuries and possibly gold.

Bitcoin’s Troubles

Needless to say, BTC didn’t respond too well, dropping by 20% in the wake of Powell’s double-speak; as of this writing, it rose by 9% in less than 24 hours.

Such dramatic price swings, in our opinion, confirm that cryptos (despite “consolidation” and “adoption” pains) will never be stores of value but rather volatile (and yes, exciting) speculation assets—though we know the crypto circles (who will likely also ignore recent warnings [raised by Jintao Ding] of quantum hacker risks) will strongly disagree.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst

December 10, 2021

The next recession: Here’s when the ‘everything bubble’ will burst

In October 20XX. That’s not a typo. To reach the best guesstimate of when the next recession will begin, we need to understand how the Federal Reserve creates unsustainable booms and why the next bust may be just around the corner.

A caveat is in order. As physicist Niels Bohr exclaimed, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nevertheless, I will weigh in fearlessly with my 10 cents. The Fed’s inflationary policies have increased my two cents fivefold. Maybe the next cryptocurrency is on the horizon: My 10 Cents.

If a dog can have a crypto, why can’t a retired finance professor who warned the public that prices were about to accelerate due to the Fed’s inflationary policies in the spring of 1976 have one?

Consumer prices rose 5.7% in 1976, 6.5% in 1977, 7.6% in 1978, 11.3% in 1979 and 13.5% in 1980. Talk about being right on the money!

As inflation was galloping throughout his presidency, then President Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker, a former banker and U.S. Treasury official, in 1979 to halt the multiyear price spiral. Volcker succeeded spectacularly. Consumer prices rose 10.3% in 1981, revealing how inflation momentum can continue for a while before the Fed’s tight money policies slay the inflation dragon. In 1982, prices rose 6.1%, 3.2% in 1983, and (miracle of miracles) only 1.9% in 1986, a year before Volcker stepped down as Fed chairman and was replaced by Alan Greenspan.

To accomplish what was considered at the time improbable due to high inflation expectations, the Volcker-led Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate–the rate banks borrow from each other for overnight loans–to 22% by December 1980. The cost of Volcker’s tight monetary policies necessary to halt the dollar’s slide was back-to-back recessions: a short downturn 1980 and then another one, 1981-1982. A case can be made that one long recession occurred that in effect lasted three years, from January 1980 to November 1982.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

And Just Like That, Inflation Is About To Disappear?

December 10, 2021

And Just Like That, Inflation Is About To Disappear?

Earlier this year, when inflation was still “transitory” two Fed chairs, Powell and Bernanke, made comments which we joked only make sense if the definition of inflation is changed:

Sadly, our feeble attempts at humor were not unjustified, and as any economic history buff knows the US dramatically changed how it calculates consumer inflation back in the 1980s, an event extensively covered by AllianceBernstein former chief economist Joseph Carson on this website in the past (see “Consumer Price Inflation: Facts vs. Fiction“) with the most important difference being that while the CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, the current measure does not. Instead, home price pressures have been swept in the purposefully nebulous Owner-Equivalent Rent which can be whatever politicians wants it to be (there have been other definitional changes, see here, here, here and here for more). Bottom line, however, is that if today’s CPI did include house prices in its measurement, the currently reported inflation numbers for house price inflation would push CPI (and core CPI) to double-digit gains.

Of course, it is politically inconvenient to report true inflation is – just see what happens in any banana republic where society is fed up with runaway inflation. It’s also why politicians on both sides of the aisle are always eager to tweak the definition of inflation ever so slightly (or not so slightly) so it appears to be less than it truly is. After all, for them masking reality is a matter of political survival.

In any case, what we though this summer was just a joke appears to be coming true, because as the BLS has reported, starting next month it will adjust the weights for its Consumer Price Index basket, which will be calculated “based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mainstream Economists Struggling to Hide the Incoming Economic Collapse

December 7, 2021

Mainstream Economists Struggling to Hide the Incoming Economic Collapse

Alternative Economists Were Right, The Stagflation Crisis Is Here

Photo by Annie Spratt

For many years now there has been a contingent of alternative economists working diligently within the liberty movement to combat disinformation being spread by the mainstream media regarding America’s true economic condition. Our efforts have focused primarily on the continued devaluation of the dollar and the forced dependence on globalism that has outsourced and eliminated most U.S. manufacturing.

The problems of devaluation and stagflation have been present since 1916 when the Federal Reserve was officially formed and given power, but the true impetus for a currency collapse and the destruction of American buying power began in 2007-2008 when the Financial Crisis was used as an excuse to allow the Fed to create trillions upon trillions in stimulus dollars for well over a decade.

The mainstream media’s claim has always been that the Fed “saved” the U.S. from imminent collapse and that the central bankers are “heroes.” After all, stock markets have mostly skyrocketed since quantitative easing (QE) was introduced during the credit crash, and stock markets are a measure of economic health, right?

The devil’s bargain

Wrong.

Reality isn’t a mainstream media story. The U.S. economy isn’t the stock market.

All the Federal Reserve really accomplished was to forge a devil’s bargain: Trading one manageable deflationary crisis for at least one (possibly more) highly unmanageable inflationary crises down the road. Central banks kicked the can on the collapse, making it far worse in the process.

The U.S. economy in particular is extremely vulnerable now. Money created from thin air by the Fed was used to support failing banks and corporations, not just here in America, but around the world.

Why does it matter where those dollars came from?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Tag Archives: us federal reserve

Content

Post categories

Economic Links

Energy/Resource Links

Environmental Links

Geopolitical Links

Liberty Links

News Links

Other Links

Survival Skills

Post Archives by Category

Jim Rickards: We’ve Reached Peak Inflation; The Real Risk in 2022 and Why Cash Is Critical

Post navigation

Latest Posts