Four Scenarios Of How Covid-19 Could Wreak Havoc On Global Economy
The grave risks and dangers of a globalized world of interlocking supply chains over the last four decades is starting to be realized as the crash of China’s economy could cost the world $2.7 trillion.
Bloomberg Economics says the shutdown of China’s economy could have severe implications for the rest of the world and lays out four scenarios of what could happen next:
The first scenario is a plunge in China’s economy, with a modest spillover of economic damage in Asia Pacific countries, Europe, and the US. China is a source of demand for multinationals based across the world, and if China can reopen its economy as soon as possible, contagion can be minimized. The scenario says a “severe shock in the first half would be followed by recovery in the second. For the world as a whole, and major economies like the US, the impact would then be hard to see in the full-year GDP data.”
The second scenario is the assumption that the Covid-19 outbreak worsens, and China’s economy remains disrupted with the hopes of a V-shape recovery transforming into a U-Shape dip, which would result in localized disruptions for Asia Pacific countries and Europe.
“Even when factories are back to work, it’s not like all the problems are solved,” said Li Lei, the Made-in-China.com manager. “Many factories don’t have enough inventory… the supply chain obstacles cap production capacity.”
The scenario assumes Asia Pacific countries like South Korea and Japan, and European countries like Germany, France, and Italy, would experience supply chain disruptions because of the lack of parts sourced from China due to factory shutdowns. Bloomberg said in their calculations, this scenario would result in global growth at 2.3%, down from 3.1% pre-virus forecast.
