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Negative Interest Rates Threaten the Financial System

Negative Interest Rates Threaten the Financial System

Markets may need to be rebuilt on a new set of assumptions, but we don’t know what those should be or how they would work.

Negative rates in the U.S. would have profound implications for markets.
Negative rates in the U.S. would have profound implications for markets. Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Jim Bianco is the President and founder of Bianco Research, a provider of data-driven insights into the global economy and financial markets. He may have a stake in the areas he writes about.


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said he wouldn’t be surprised if yields on U.S. bonds turned negative and if they do, it wouldn’t be “that big a of a deal.” That seems to be a sentiment widely held in central banking circles these days, but it’s wrong. Negative interest rates represent a threat to the financial system.

To understand why, let’s start with the existing fractional reserve banking system, which is more than a century old. For every dollar that goes into a bank, some set amount (usually about 10%) must go into a reserve account to be overseen by the central bank. The rest is either lent out or used to buy securities.

In other words, the fractional reserve banking system is leveraged to interest rates. This works when rates are positive. Loans are made and securities bought because they will generate income for the bank. In a negative rate environment, the bank must pay to hold loans and securities. In other words, banks would be punished for providing credit, which is the lifeblood of an economy. As German bankers recently explained to the European Central Bank:

We already have a devastating interest rate situation today, the end of which is unforeseeable,” Peter Schneider, who represents public-sector savings banks in the southern German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, said on Wednesday. “If the ECB aggravates this course, that would hit not only the entire financial sector hard, but especially savers.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Big Short” Investor Michael Burry Explains How Index Funds Will Trigger The Next Crash

“Big Short” Investor Michael Burry Explains How Index Funds Will Trigger The Next Crash

After years of radio silence, Dr. Michael Burry – the small-time stockpicker who rose to fame for his bets against subprime mortgage bonds featured in the book (and later film) “the Big Short” – is once again doing the media rounds, talking about his latest equity plays and sharing his thoughts about the next big market blowups.

And in an interview with Bloomberg, Burry doesn’t disappoint. At one point, he shares his skepticism about passive investing, and the flood of money that has poured into index funds since the financial crisis. Burry sees similarities between these funds and the CDOs that nearly brought down the financial system in the run-up to the crisis.

Burry, who made a fortune betting against the CDOs, argued that these passive flows are distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDOs did for subprime mortgages. Eventually, the flows will reverse at some point, and when they do, “it will be ugly.”

“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” Burry, who oversees about $340 million AUM at Scion Asset Management in Cupertino, said.

That’s one reason he likes small-cap value stocks: they tend to be underrepresented in index funds, or left out entirely.

Here’s what Burry had to say on a number of topics:

Index funds and price discovery:

Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets, meaning risk does not have an accurate pricing mechanism in interest rates anymore. And now passive investing has removed price discovery from the equity markets.

The simple theses and the models that get people into sectors, factors, indexes, or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies – these do not require the security- level analysis that is required for true price discovery.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Burgundy’s Vineyards Haven’t Been This Hot And Dry Since “The Black Death” In The 14th Century

Burgundy’s Vineyards Haven’t Been This Hot And Dry Since “The Black Death” In The 14th Century

Vintners in France haven’t seen such a succession of hot weather and dry harvest since the 14th century, during a time called “the Black Death”, according to Bloomberg. Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?

Though these weather extremes may seem normal to those under the age of 30, they are unprecedented by historical standards, going all the way back to when Europe was recovering from the pandemic that trounced its population. This is the conclusion of researchers who examined temperature, grape harvest and wage data dating back to 1354.  

In their paper, the authors led by Thomas Labbe conclude: 

“Outstanding hot and dry years in the past were outliers, while they have become the norm since the transition to rapid warming in 1988. Hotter temperatures over the last three decades have resulted in Burgundy grapes being harvested on average 13 days earlier than they were over the last 664 years.”

The study underscores how the effects of climate change are forcing some populations to adapt to new cycles.

Comparing land surface temperatures from June to July 2019

The hotter temperatures have an effect on Burgundy’s farmers tending to their vineyards, itinerant harvesters, merchants and consumers. 

Through looking at about 300 documentary weather reports, the researchers looked at the legendary hot summer of 1540 that dried up the Rhine River. That year, workers harvested grapes that looked like “withered raisins” and “yielded a sweet sherry-like wine which made people rapidly drunk.”

Doesn’t sound that bad to us…

Regardless, Hugh Johnson, a well known wine critic, said tasting the 1540 vintage was “one of the most memorable moments of his career”. 

High temperatures don’t necessarily guarantee quality harvests, according to the research, which notes that the duration of ripening and winemaker styles are also important inputs.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bangladesh’s Central Bank Offers Amnesty To Delinquent Borrowers, Prompting Mass Default

Bangladesh’s Central Bank Offers Amnesty To Delinquent Borrowers, Prompting Mass Default

Bangladesh’s Central Bank in May introduced an amnesty program that allowed delinquent borrowers to make a small upfront payment and then pay off the rest of their debt over 10 years at favorable interest rates, according to Bloomberg.

However, the plan also triggered a rush by healthy companies to reschedule debt on the same terms which, in turn, now threatens to overwhelm the country’s banks.

The program is also seen as encouraging those with debt to default. Big surprise, right?

Anis A. Khan, managing director of Dhaka-based Mutual Trust Bank Ltd. said: 

“I’m traumatized by non-performing loans. Borrowers have been using every excuse they can find — from a death in the family to political uncertainty — to try to get onto the central bank program.”

The initiative is available to borrowers until September 7 and created a “perverse incentive” to default. Now, the country is expecting that nonperforming loans may rise significantly from 11.9% in March as a result of the program.

The upfront payment was lowered to 2% from 10% for those who are defaulting for the first time. The maximum interest rate over the next 10 years was set at 9%, even if borrowers were paying as high as 15% previously.

And like all other great “Band-Aid” fixes to debt problems, the initiative has backfired: it has created a sense among Bangladeshi companies that people can get away without paying back their loans. That, in turn, poses a threat to the wider economy and a banking system that is already overwhelmed with defaults.

The central bank, meanwhile, says that the policy will help revive lending growth in an economy that is dependent on attracting investment to sustain growth. Asian Development Bank predicts that the country’s economy will expand 8% over the next two years.

Shitangshu Kumar Sur Chowdhury, banking reforms adviser at Bangladesh Bank said:

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Economic Collapse Imminent: Zimbabwe At ‘Tipping Point’ With ‘Wheels Coming Off’

Economic Collapse Imminent: Zimbabwe At ‘Tipping Point’ With ‘Wheels Coming Off’ 

Zimbabwe’s economic situation will continue to sour in 2H19 due to unfavorable weather conditions, foreign currency shortages and widespread power cuts, its finance minister said, as he responded to a deteriorating economic outlook by blacking out inflation statistics through the second half, and finally acknowledged what the International Monetary Fund told him in April: economic turmoil ahead.

Prices of essential goods and services have, in some cases, quadrupled this summer, due to the government renaming the RTGS currency as the Zimbabwe dollar, which has been on a rapid decline amid shortages, including electrical power, petrol products, American dollars, and food, reported Bloomberg.

Many Zimbabweans who supported the toppling of decades-long ruler Robert Mugabe two years ago are discovering that their economic situation is the most serious in a decade.

Emmerson Mnangagwa replaced Mugabe in 2017, he promised millions of Zimbabweans of an economic revival and that we are “open for business.” The sugar high of optimism only lasted for a short time; the effects of money supply expansion through the sale of Treasury bills under Mugabe’s rule has outweighed any positive advancements in the last several years. Mnangagwa outlawed the American dollar in favor of local currency that can’t be traded internationally, effectively making it extremely difficult for international firms to do business in the African country.

“Zimbabwe is at a tipping point and if it falls over the edge it’s going to be quite a long way in coming back,” said Derek Matyszak, a Zimbabwe-based research consultant for South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies. “The wheels are falling off. There is no way out of a Ponzi scheme other than a massive infusion of cash to pay off your creditors.”
*chart

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

$1.6 Trillion Fund Spots A New, Ticking Time Bomb In The Market

$1.6 Trillion Fund Spots A New, Ticking Time Bomb In The Market

First it was the shocking junk bond fiasco at Third Avenue which led to a premature end for the asset manager, then the three largest UK property funds suddenly froze over $12 billion in assets in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; two years later the Swiss multi-billion fund manager GAM blocked redemptions, followed by iconic UK investor Neil Woodford also suddenly gating investors despite representations of solid returns and liquid assets, and most recently the ill-named, Nataxis-owned H20 Asset Management decided to freeze redemptions.

By this point, a pattern had emerged, one which Bank of England Governor Mark Carney described best when he said last month that investment funds that promise to allow customers to withdraw their money on a daily basis are “built on a lie.” 

And now, the chief investment officer of Europe’s biggest independent asset manager agrees with him, because while for much of 2019 the biggest risk bogeymen were corporate credit, leveraged loans, and trillions in negative yielding debt, gradually consensus is emerging that investment funds may be the basis for the next liquidity crisis.

“There is no point denying we are faced with a looming liquidity mismatch problem,” said Pascal Blanque, who oversees more than 1.4 trillion euros ($1.6 trillion) as the CIO of Amundi SA, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gilbert who in a Bloomberg View piece writes that Blanque told him that the prospect of melting liquidity is one of “various things keeping me awake at night.”

Continuing the discussion of illiquid institutions, Blanque said that market making, where firms generate prices at which they are willing to either buy or sell financial products, is effectively “a public good” (or “public bad”, if it is being done by HFTs who disappear at the first sign of volatility, and them having to take on real positional risk).

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Beijing Accuses Washington Of “Undermining Global Stability” In New Defense Report

Beijing Accuses Washington Of “Undermining Global Stability” In New Defense Report

For the first time since President Xi began his second term in 2017, China has released a defense white paper that doesn’t elaborate on the country’s military priorities so much as it criticizes Beijing’s chief political adversary – the US – while defending the Communist Party’s right to impose its rule over China’s wayward provinces, including Hong Kong, which is still being rattled by protests, and Taiwan.

It’s the latest sign that tensions between Beijing and Washington over the latter’s support for Taiwan – Washington recently approved the sale of $2 billion in tanks and anti-aircraft missiles – might not only scupper trade talks, they could be the spark that ignites World War III. And what’s more, it comes hours after the White House confirmed that the next round of in-person trade talks had been set for next week. Remember, Beijing has repeatedly threatened to use military force against any foreign power who interferes in its relationship with Taiwan, while Taiwan’s leaders have insisted that they would never submit to Communist Party rule, Bloomberg reports.

China

The paper, titled “China’s National Defense in the New Era” – in a reference to a popular Xi slogan – accused the US of provoking competition among major countries, and noted that the “international security system and order are undermined by growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism and constant regional conflicts and wars.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…“(The US) has provoked and intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defense expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defense,” the paper said.

The white paper noted recent patrols by Chinese warships and warplanes around Taiwan, insisting that the operation was intended to send a “stern warning” to Taipei.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Abrupt, Alarming” Leveraged Loan Collapse Highlights Fragile Nature Of Credit Markets

“Abrupt, Alarming” Leveraged Loan Collapse Highlights Fragile Nature Of Credit Markets

A leveraged loan taken out by a company called Clover Technologies about five years ago lost about a third of its value without warning over the past week, according to BloombergThe “alarming” and “abrupt” collapse of the recycling company’s debt surprised even sophisticated investors that deal in leveraged loans.

And even though the loan isn’t large by Wall Street standards – $693 million – it serves as a much needed and stark reminder of the capital that has flocked to leveraged loans in search of yield. The leveraged loan market today is $1.3 trillion and low rates have caused an explosion in borrowing and lax standards in underwriting. The market can also be thin, and this means that collapses like Clover’s can happen quickly and without warning.

Soren Reynertson of investment bank GLC Advisers & Co said:

“When buyers head for the exits at the same time, prices can drop fast and furiously given the lack of liquidity.”

Clover had been operating since 1996 when it was an acquired by Golden Gate in 2010 for an undisclosed sum. Golden Gate piled debt onto the underlying company to extract dividends from it using the leveraged loan market as a wallet. The company took out loans that funded dividend payments totaling at least $278 million and then the company went back to the loan market in 2014, asking lenders for $100 million extra to make an acquisition.

The loans were bought mostly by mutual funds and collateralized loan obligations, which bundle this type of debt into higher rated securities. And there’s been little trouble finding buyers for CLOs in recent years, with high grade bond yields hovering near zero.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Central Banks “Are Trapped By Their Own Inflation Targets”

Global Central Banks “Are Trapped By Their Own Inflation Targets”

Negative Rates Would Lead To #Chaos

Central bankers attending the G-7 meeting are sounding remarkably coordinated in their message. The global economy is growing but inflation isn’t. And that, along with the oft-cited global headwinds, means they’re ready and able to add more liquidity to the system. In the case of the U.S. they have virtually promised that it’s underway. They can assure markets that they’re “ready.” But the far more important assertion is driving home that they’re still “able.”

Inevitably, and understandably, the question of whether they’re running out of ammunition to conduct further monetary easing has been the subject of debate. But the last thing they can afford to let happen is for investors, corporations or consumers to conclude that they’re near the end of the line.

Monetary policy is a transmission mechanism that largely works through expectations. Nothing will crater inflationary expectations, alter the spend-versus-save dynamic, affect capital-investment decisions and tighten financial conditions faster than the admission that little more is possible.

They’re in fact trapped by their own inflation targets. No one realized that it’s easier to get inflation down than up. Therefore, central bankers need to keep considering, and in some cases delivering, more and more extreme forms of easing.

Zero rates begot quantitative easing which led to negative rates. While financial markets give the appearance of stability through asset bubbles, higher asset prices haven’t led to them fulfilling their mandates.

There is a reason there’s so much academic interest in discussing the potential benefits of policies like helicopter money and modern monetary theory — ideas that would have previously been dismissed out of hand. Officials need to convince themselves of the potential efficacy of these notions in order to get the rest of us to believe they’re legitimate options. The truth is, they really don’t know why inflation has remained such a problem. Therefore the proper cure remains elusive.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bank Run: Deutsche Bank Clients Are Pulling $1 Billion A Day

Bank Run: Deutsche Bank Clients Are Pulling $1 Billion A Day

There is a reason James Simons’ RenTec is the world’s best performing hedge fund – it spots trends (even if they are glaringly obvious) well ahead of almost everyone else, and certainly long before the consensus.

That’s what happened with Deutsche Bank, when as we reported two weeks ago, the quant fund pulled its cash from Deutsche Bank as a result of soaring counterparty risk, just days before the full – and to many, devastating – extent of the German lender’s historic restructuring was disclosed, and would result in a bank that is radically different from what Deutsche Bank was previously (see “The Deutsche Bank As You Know It Is No More“).

In any case, now that RenTec is long gone, and questions about the viability of Deutsche Bank are swirling – yes, it won’t be insolvent overnight, but like the world’s biggest melting ice cube, there is simply no equity value there any more – everyone else has decided to cut their counterparty risk with the bank with the €45 trillion in derivatives, and according to Bloomberg Deutsche Bank clients, mostly hedge funds, have started a “bank run” which has culminated with about $1 billion per day being pulled from the bank.

As a result of the modern version of this “bank run”, where it’s not depositors but counterparties that are pulling their liquid exposure from DB on fears another Lehman-style lock up could freeze their funds indefinitely, Deutsche Bank is considering how to transfer some €150 billion ($168 billion) of balances held in it prime-brokerage unit – along with technology and potentially hundreds of staff – to French banking giant BNP Paribas.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Renewables power forward

Renewables power forward 

Renewable energy continues to outperform and outmuscle traditional sources of energy in the majority of countries across the globe. Renewables are now the cheapest power technology for new electricity generation across two-thirds of the world.  This is the startling finding of a new study from an authoritative agency published earlier this month. 

Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s assessment of the global energy picture is more objective that those of the oil and gas companies (like British Petroleum), or even of supposedly non-aligned agencies like the International Energy Agency, which tend to assume that that world will deviate only slowly from a business-as-usual path. On the other hand, BNEF is more concerned with global finance and investment opportunities: it tends to be clear-eyed and much more realistic about what the future holds.

Megawatt-scale wind turbine blades delivered

The numbers speak for themselves: solar photovoltaic modules, wind turbines and utility-scale lithium-ion batteries (the essential partner for solar and wind), are set to continue down strong cost-reduction curves of 28%, 14% and 18% respectively for each doubling in global installed capacity. This irresistible market pressure means that by 2030, the energy generated or stored and dispatched by this triumvirate of transformative technologies will undercut electricity generated by existing coal and gas plants almost everywhere.

In the BNEF scenario, the electrification of the major economic sectors substantially drives up the global demand for electricity.  But this power is not generated by carbon-based fuels. The world changes from two-thirds fossil fuels in 2018 to two-thirds zero carbon energy by 2050. For wind and solar this is 50-by-50: supplying 50% of the worlds electricity by 2050–effectively ending the era of fossil-fuel dominance in the power sector.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China’s Central Bank: “Everyone, Please Don’t Worry”

China’s Central Bank: “Everyone, Please Don’t Worry”

Many unhappy returns. Thirty years ago, British ambassador Sir Alan Donald cabled home his classified report on the bloody goings-on in Tiananmen Square: “Students linked arms but were mown down. Armored personnel carriers then ran over the bodies time and time again to make, ‘pie’, and remains collected by bulldozer, incinerated and then hosed down drains. . .”

Unsurprisingly, the Xi Jinping-led government has little interest in commemorating the event, or in allowing others to pause and remember. Domestic social media platforms have “barred users from changing their profile photos and other information,” Bloomberg says, while financial data company Refinitiv has blocked all Tiananmen-related stories from its Eikon terminals, after the Cyberspace Administration of China “threatened to suspend the company’s service,” according to Reuters.

While Refinitiv may suffer a reputational knock in the West for this evident kowtow, its social credit score looks poised for an upgrade.       

If only the recent trouble in China’s banking system could be so easily suppressed. Following the government’s takeover of distressed Baoshang Bank Co., the People’s Bank of China tried to calm the situation by assuring investors that no further such interventions were in the cards: “Everyone,” says a message on the PBOC website: “please don’t worry. At present we don’t have this plan.” But Bloomberg reports today that a pair of smaller institutions, Guilin Bank Co., Ltd. and Jincheng Bank Co., Ltd., have delayed plans to sell RMB 1 billion ($140 million) in tier-2 bond sales following the Baoshang news.  

Over the weekend, Bank of Jinzhou, which holds $113 billion and $53 billion of assets and deposits, respectively, saw its auditor Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP resign due to “indications that some loans to institutional customers weren’t used in ways consistent with the purposes stated in documents,” per Bloomberg. In response, the bank’s 5.5% dollar-pay perpetual bonds fell below 65 from 81 a week ago, for a 19.2% yield-to-call.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“A Big Wake Up Call”: Chinese Bond Market Roiled By First Ever Bank Failure

“A Big Wake Up Call”: Chinese Bond Market Roiled By First Ever Bank Failure

Late last Friday, we reported that several hours after the market close, China’s financial regulator and central bank made a shocking announcement: for the first time in nearly 30 year, China would take control of a bank, in this case the troubled inner Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank, due to the serious credit risks it poses.

The news which highlights the potential for increased stress at regional lenders that piled into off-book financing in recent years, was strategically timed to hit ahead of the weekend, and with the market closed, it avoided an immediate panic selling waterfall. However, the fact that in China banks are now fair game for failure, and will soon join the record surge in Chinese corporate defaults…

… slammed the country’s financial sector on Monday, sending funding costs sharply higher and underscoring the potential for increased stress at regional lenders that piled into off-book financing in recent years.

Unfortunately for Beijing, Bloomberg writes overnight that despite the strategically timed news, it wasn’t enough to prevent turmoil from sweep across the nation’s bond market, where funding costs for lenders surged and yields on government debt jumped. The seven-day repurchase rate jumped 30 basis points to 2.85%, the highest in a month, as of late Monday in Shanghai, while the yield on 10Y sovereign bonds climbed 5 bps to 3.35%.

“Baoshang’s case is a big wake-up call,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered. “Participants in the interbank market, who didn’t differentiate credit when lending to banks on the belief that they will never go bankrupt, have now become more cautious. That has helped drive up funding costs and thus sovereign yields.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“China’s JPMorgan” Seeks Money From Its Employees To Avoid Collapse

“China’s JPMorgan” Seeks Money From Its Employees To Avoid Collapse 

Ever since Beijing allowed private Chinese companies (even certain state-owned enterprises) to officially fail for the first time in 2015, and file for bankruptcy to restructure their unsustainable debt loads, it’s been a one-way street of corporate bankruptcies, one which we profiled last June in “Is It Time To Start Worrying About China’s Debt Default Avalanche” (the answer, by the way, was yes), and which culminated with a record number of Chinese onshore bond defaults in 2018, as a liquidity crunch sparked a record 119.6 billion yuan in defaults on local Chinese debt last year.

But if 2018 was bad, 2019 is set to be the biggest by far for defaults in China’s $13 trillion bond market, highlighting the widening fallout from the government’s campaign to rein in leverage and China’s accelerating economic slowdown. According to Bloomberg, in just the first four months of the year, companies defaulted on 39.2 billion yuan ($5.8 billion) of domestic bonds, some 3.4 times the total for the same period of 2018. The pace is also more than triple that of 2016, when defaults were more concentrated in the first half of the year, unlike 2018.

However, whereas for much of 2018 Chinese defaults affected largely less meaningful companies with little to no systemic impact, in 2019 the defaults started hitting dangerously close to the beating heart of China’s massive, $40 trillion financial system (roughly three times China’s GDP). As we reported back in February, a giant Chinese borrower missed its payment deadline when Wintime Energy – which in 2018 became the latest Chinese bond defaulter as the coal miner failed to pay scheduled interest – didn’t honor part of a restructured debt repayment plan, setting the scene for even more corporate defaults, and as Bloomberg put it, “underscoring the risks piling up in a credit market that’s witnessing the most company failures on record.”

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trader: “The Facts Are Lining Up For A Nasty Correction In The S&P 500”

Trader: “The Facts Are Lining Up For A Nasty Correction In The S&P 500”

U.S. Equity Optimism Is Starting To Look Misplaced

It’s time to turn bearish on the S&P 500, at least for a few weeks. The benchmark U.S. equity index just made a fresh record high, but it’s unlikely to keep ignoring warning signs coming from elsewhere in markets.

After having been staunchly bullish global stocks this year, I turned bearish on Asia equities on Monday last week. That negative sentiment will now spread across the Pacific. Asia, and notably China, has led the 2019 global stocks rally, and similarly has the capacity to lead a correction.

There’s not one single looming catalyst that will send equities reeling. The problem is that almost every factor is starting to look like a marginal negative. The positives from Fed dovishness, a solid earnings season and hopes of a trade deal are all generously priced in. Where’s the good news going to come from going forward?

Companies’ guidance hasn’t been encouraging and earnings estimates for later in the year continue to slide. The S&P 500 has a blended 12-months forward price-to-equity ratio of 17 versus the 10-year average of 15. Such a substantial premium is ripe for disappointment.

The data out of Asia over the past week has been terrible. Tuesday’s PMIs out of China emphasize that the market may have got over- optimistic on how quickly the economy can accelerate: All the PMI prints disappointed — private and official, manufacturing and services.

Dollar strength is another marginal negative. As is the surge in oil prices. This week’s lengthy holidays in the world’s second- and third-largest economies, China and Japan, don’t help. And, of course, May is historically a tough month for emerging markets.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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