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The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar

The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar

Fig 1: The attackers hit at Fajr prayer time

When the late Houston based investment banker Matt Simmons wrote his 2005 book “Twilight in the desert, the coming Saudi oil shock and the World economy”

Fig 2: Matt Simmons’ book

he could not have imagined that Saudi Arabia would be threatened by a pre-dawn drone & missile attack on a plant in Abqaiq, processing oil from Ghawar, the very oil field Matt had warned suffered from high water cut rates and could not maintain production rates of 5 mb/d (chapter 7). 

One of Matt’s slide shows is here: 

Fig 3: Ghawar’s properties worsen from North to South

Indeed, Saudi Aramco’s prospectus for the London Stock Exchange (Initial Public Offering IPO), published in April 2019, has Ghawar producing a sustainable maximum of only 3.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d less than was generally assumed. 

Fig 4: extract from Saudi Aramco’s prospectus

According to the prospectus, the maximum sustainable oil production capacity (MSC) from the first 3 fields (affected by the attacks)  in the above table should be 3.8 + 1 + 1.45 = 6.25 mb/d. 

Fig 5: Graph from the same prospectus showing how Abqaiq is connected to Ghawar, Khurais and Shaybah oil fields

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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