Third and Final Leg of Stock Market Crash in October or Sooner
I shared the first part of this series of articles last week, explaining why I expect the third and final leg of the crash that began in October 2018 to occur in October 2019, or sooner, and see the S&P 500 fall ~30% to lower lows ~2100-2200.
Until then, I expect the S&P to slowly grind higher towards 3000-3150, short-term pullbacks aside.
This matters to Gold because when stocks crash, the Fed will be forced to reverse policy to rate cuts, QE, and more monetary insanity on steroids, and that will catapult precious metals and miners to new highs.
There are many reasons why I expect another “Crash in the Fall” like that in 2018. I began with Liquidity last week, now let’s cover the technical and Elliott wave case for the crash in October (“or sooner”), especially based on how close we are to the peak above circa 3000 plus.
TECHNICALS
Sven Henrich did some excellent work recently on the S&P from a technical perspective, which I am sharing here.
Drawing the upper trend line (see chart below) from the 2007 highs into the January 2018 and September 2018 highs, and the lower trend line from the 2009 lows, the one that was broken in December 2018 and has been hugged by markets for the past several weeks, they intersect at circa 3100.
The middle trend line dates back to the 1987 crash and formed following the 2000 crash, then ended up being resistance in 2014-2015 and twice in 2018. Note from that chart that it, too, intersects the other two trend lines at the same point, 3100.
Circa 3100 also represents 261.8% Fibonacci level derived from the 2007 highs and the 2009 lows.
Three historic trend lines converging at the same key Fibonacci level is a powerful signal. A quadruple convergence, as Sven puts it. And if that wasn’t sufficiently interesting, then consider “when” they converge: October 2019.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
