Shale Bottlenecks Could Send Oil Prices Higher
Amid reports that OPEC will likely decide to start easing production quotas after June 22 and an IEA forecast that electric vehicles will displace 2.5 million bpd in crude oil demand by 2030, some analysts remain upbeat about the future of oil prices, citing transport constraints in the U.S. shale patch as well as companies’ prioritization of returning cash to shareholders over investing in new production.
CNBC recently quoted one such analyst, Tamar Essner from Nasdaq Corporate Solutions, as saying “I think it’s temporary. I think the fundamental picture is still really strong. The market’s getting a bit dislocated right now based on a risk-off sentiment.“ Essner went on to note the 500,000-bpd fall in production in Venezuela and speculated that it could fall by another half a million barrels daily by end-2018. If this happens, he said, U.S. shale drillers would not be able to ramp up production quickly enough to meet growing demand.
Indeed, Venezuelan production has been sliding inexorably, and chances are that it will continue to fall until the year’s end, at least. However, U.S. drillers have increased their daily production since the start of the year by 1.28 million bpd already, if we are to believe EIA’s weekly production estimates and monthly reports, which have historically proven to be quite accurate.
So, that’s 1.28 million bpd more over five months. Even if the EIA is erring on the positive side, the increase in U.S. production could be around 1 million barrels daily, which would be enough to offset a Venezuelan production decline of the same proportions.
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