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President Erdogan’s re-election in Turkey is a monumental failure of Western pressure. Because of it, it’s time to take our eyes off Ukraine and look at a different theater of World War III with equal if not bigger implications.

Turkey is another in a now long string of failed Economic Hitman operations cum Color Revolutions. The last big one to fail was in Belarus in 2020 following the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko.

Turkey has been the subject of a seven-year campaign to be rid of Erdogan, beginning with the 2016 coup attempt organized out of the NATO airbase at Incerlik. Turkey’s been through a persistent five-year brutal devaluation of its currency, the lira, seeing it drop from less than 2 versus the US dollar to nearly 21 this week in the wake of Erdogan’s victory.

I’ve covered this story in detail (see my Turkey archives here) being one of the lone voices out there trying to parse Erdogan’s monetary policy actions which I’ve argued sought to de-dollarize Turkey’s foreign exchange liabilities and forge an independent path.

Erdogan, wily as a fox, has been deftly playing the US and Russia/China off each other for years, positioning Turkey simultaneously as a member of NATO, the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, and the financial and trade crossroads linking East and West.

The West’s campaign to overthrow President Assad in Syria beginning in 2011 couldn’t have gone forward without Erdogan’s help. He went along with it very willingly having been promised Turkey claiming Idlib province in the West and taking most of the north. Vladimir Putin accepting Assad’s invitation for assistance in fighting ISIS and Erdogan’s pets in Idlib (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS) began the unraveling of those plans.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Turkiye’s Erdogan Flips Syria on its Head

January 8, 2023

Turkiye’s Erdogan Flips Syria on its Head

While we are all, rightfully, worried about what’s going on in Ukraine, those sneaky Russians are shoring up their situation on the south shores of the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean.

As reported last week the meeting between Russia, Turkiye, and Syria took place between their Defense Ministers where they all described the talks as ‘constructive’ towards solving multiple outstanding issues like refugees and the backing of radicals.

This meeting was put in motion by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as the Moscow Times article notes:

In November, Erdogan said a meeting with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was a possibility, after cutting diplomatic ties with Damascus throughout the 11-year conflict.

In mid-December, he indicated that he could meet with Assad after the two countries’ defense and foreign ministers meet.

“We want to take a step as Syria, Turkey and Russia,” [emphasis mine] he said at the time.

The issues discussed are especially important for Erdogan as the protracted war is sapping his popularity at home in the face of an ongoing pull out of western capital from Turkey that has seen the lira go through what can only be described as a hyperinflation since 2018.

With elections on the horizon and Erdogan’s position tenuous for the first time in his political career, moves need to be made now to improve things. Allowing the millions of Syrian refugees the opportunity to go home would be a big win for Erdogan politically.

This is also a good use of Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, since he’s not in charge of the operation in Ukraine and hasn’t been since October, with good reason.

Shoigu, I’m sure, has been preparing for this meeting for months, laying the groundwork for talks between Turkiye and Syria that are long overdue.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Politics, climate conspire as Tigris and Euphrates dwindle

November 21, 2022

A fisherman walks across a dry patch of land in the marshes of southern Iraq which has suffered dire consequences from back to back drought and rising salinity levels, in Dhi Qar province, Iraq, Friday Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Anmar Khalil)

Politics, climate conspire as Tigris and Euphrates dwindle

DAWWAYAH, Iraq and ILISU DAM, Turkey (AP) — Next year, the water will come. The pipes have been laid to Ata Yigit’s sprawling farm in Turkey’s southeast connecting it to a dam on the Euphrates River. A dream, soon to become a reality, he says.

He’s already grown a small corn patch on some of the water. The golden stalks are tall and abundant. “The kernels are big,” he says, proudly. Soon he’ll be able to water all his fields.

Over 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) downstream in southern Iraq, nothing grows anymore in Obeid Hafez’s wheat farm. The water stopped coming a year ago, the 95-year-old said, straining to speak.

“The last time we planted the seed, it went green, then suddenly it died,” he said.

Water levels in the Chibayish marshes of southern Iraq are declining and fishermen say certain water-ways are no longer accessible by boat, in Dhi Qar province, Iraq, Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Anmal Khalil)

The starkly different realities are playing out along the length of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin, one of the world’s most vulnerable watersheds. River flows have fallen by 40% in the past four decades as the states along its length — Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq — pursue rapid, unilateral development of the waters’ use.

The drop is projected to worsen as temperatures rise from climate change. Both Turkey and Iraq, the two biggest consumers, acknowledge they must cooperate to preserve the river system that some 60 million people rely on to sustain their lives.

But political failures and intransigence conspire to prevent a deal sharing the rivers.

The Associated Press conducted more than a dozen interviews in both countries, from top water envoys and senior officials to local farmers, and gained exclusive visits to controversial dam projects…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Turkey Adopts Legislation That Could Jail Journalists for ‘Disinformation’

October 16, 2022

Peoples’ Democratic Party’s Zuleyha Gulum holds a banner “Truths cannot be obscured” as she stands with a covered mouth, in protest over a new media law that could lead to up to three years of jail for spreading “fake news” by reporters and social networks users, at the Turkish Grand National Assembly in Ankara, Turkey, on Oct. 13, 2022. (Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images)

Turkey Adopts Legislation That Could Jail Journalists for ‘Disinformation’

Measure heads to president for final approval

Turkish lawmakers have voted to adopt a law that aimed at preventing “disinformation” in the media and online, despite widespread concerns about the measure’s potential to quash free speech.

Lawmakers from President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which together have a majority, voted in parliament on Thursday to approve the legislation. The bill now goes to Erdogan for final approval.

While government officials have said the highly controversial bill is needed to combat fake news and disinformation, opposition members of parliament as well as European countries and media rights activists have called to scrap it.

Many have taken issue with article 29 in the measure, saying that it may be used to enforce censorship and quash free speech, as well as threaten independent journalism, since the Turkish government currently controls a majority of major news outlets in the country.

Article 29 says that people who are found guilty of spreading false information online intended to “create fear and disturb public order” could be punished with a prison sentence of one to three years. The measure also stipulates that if anonymous accounts are used to spread the alleged disinformation, sentences can be increased by up to half.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Zelensky Urges Biden To Impose No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine; Turkey Shuts Straits To All Warships

February 28, 2022

Zelensky Urges Biden To Impose No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine; Turkey Shuts Straits To All Warships

Update(1845ET): Ukraine’s President Zelensky has urged the West to consider imposing a no-fly zone against Russian aircraft. Zelensky on Monday appealed directly to Joe Biden to consider a no-fly zone for “significant parts” of Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader issued the statement in an exclusive Axios report. He told Axios that there’s a chance for Ukraine’s armed forces to “beat the aggressor” if the Western allies are willing to “do their part.”

He also suggested that this would result in less total bloodshed, and spare civilians: “If the West does this, Ukraine will defeat the aggressor with much less blood,” Zelensky conveyed through an advisor.

However, not only did Biden rule out sending American troops to Ukraine in a Monday statement, but press secretary Jen Psaki also stressed that a no-fly zone is also ruled out, given that either scenario would bring Washington into direct war with Russia, and likely lead to WW3.

“Here’s what’s important for everybody to know about a no-fly zone: What that would require is implementation by the U.S. military. It would essentially mean the U.S. military would be shooting down Russian planes,” Psaki told MSNBC on Monday.

Zelensky had described additionally of current measures, “The sanctions are heading in the right direction. In addition to disconnecting the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT and providing more Stingers and anti-tank weapons, we need the West to impose a no-fly zone over significant parts of Ukraine.”

An additional major development Monday is that Turkey as expected has invoked the Montreux Convention and has now closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to all Russian warship traffic. This means Russian vessels cannot enter the Black Sea from the vicinity of the Mediterranean. But this also applies to all warships at this time…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey Hit By Unprecedented Power Outages As Iran Halts Gas Flows

January 24, 2022

Turkey Hit By Unprecedented Power Outages As Iran Halts Gas Flows

A disruption to natural gas imports from Iran has caused an unprecedented level of power cuts in Turkey.
The power cuts have largely impacted major industrial zones, with some companies forced to halt production as a result.
Iran claims that its natural gas flows have been restored but Turkey has said its supplies and gas pressure remain very low.

Turkey is undergoing massive power cuts to industrial customers this week at an unprecedented level never seen before after the country’s natural gas supplies dipped following a disruption of imports from Iran. Major industrial zones and clusters and major production sites, including those of foreign car manufacturers, are being hit by power outages after Iran said at the end of last week it would halt natural gas exports to Turkey for ten days, due to technical issues.

On Friday, Iran announced that gas flows were restored, but Turkey said supplies were very low and at low pressure.

“The system is being disrupted due to the low amount and pressure. The compressor stations on the Turkey side are ready, operational, and there are no technical issues on the Turkish side,” a Turkish official told Reuters on Friday.

Gas supply from Iran to Turkey has yet to fully resume, which puts major industries under power cuts this week, according to Turkey’s main electricity distribution company TEIAS, cited by Bloomberg.

As of Monday, Turkey’s industrial production will stop completely for at least three days, Daily Sabah reported on Sunday.

Gas accounts for more than half of the country’s electricity generation, and Iran’s halting of flows comes at a time of surging gas imports for Turkey, which have become much more expensive due to the crumbling Turkish currency, the lira.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Oil Spikes To Fresh 7-Year High After Key Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Explosion

January 18, 2022

Oil Spikes To Fresh 7-Year High After Key Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Explosion

Despite dollar strength today (and more worrisome ZeroCOVID actions from China), oil prices continued to rise but news after-hours that an explosion knocked out a major pipeline sparked more upside.

Little is known about the cause, but the explosion at a pipeline connecting Northern Iraq and the port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean has taken 450kb/d of supply offline in an already very tight crude oil market.

The pipelines have been halted before: Back in 2012 blasts blamed on saboteurs halted the link for several months.

The headlines sent oil prices spiking with WTI topping $86 for the first time since Oct 2014 (Brent neared $89)…

This news follows a ballistic missile attack over the weekend, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen targeted oil infrastructure in the UAE.

Pipeline operator Botas said the fire has been brought under control and cooling operations were under way.

Botas said the it would reopen once the “necessary measures” had been taken, but gave no indication of timing.

The Criminalization of Preppers in Turkey: Will Our Country Be Next?

December 23, 2021

The Criminalization of Preppers in Turkey: Will Our Country Be Next?

History has shown us that collectivism detests the individual. The man who can exist independent of the system, who thinks for himself, who is not easily swayed, and who has values rooted in absolute truth which he refuses to give up – this is the enemy of collectivism.

But if we take a closer look at one aspect of the individual – his ability to exist independent of the system – is it not clear this is an end goal of prepping?

Is that not what a prepper strives for – the ability to exist independent of the world around them so that disaster does not affect them in the way that it affects others?

It is, and this is why collectivism criminalizes preppers over and over again.

We’ve seen it before and we’re seeing it right now, most notably in Turkey.

Turkey is cooked, and we all know it.

For those who keep a fairly accurate pulse of world events, you know that the fiat currency of Turkey – the lira – is collapsing.

As of this year the lira has lost approximately 40% of its value, and from all appearances, it shows no signs of stopping its downward spiral anytime soon.

Inflation is rapidly leading to hyperinflation within Turkey and the Turkish citizens have recognized this. People began attempting to step away from the lira and delving into cryptocurrency in an attempt to protect themselves.

And then the Turkish government made crypto illegal as a form of payment on April 30, 2021. This was done to prevent “irreparable damage.” What’s ironic about this is that the Turks said this was because cryptocurrencies were “neither subject to any regulation and supervision mechanisms nor a central regulatory authority.” [source]

That’s a fun train of logic from the people that are in the process of destroying their own currency.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey Halts All Stock Trading As Currency Disintegrates, Central Bank Powerless To Halt Collapse

December 17, 2021

Turkey Halts All Stock Trading As Currency Disintegrates, Central Bank Powerless To Halt Collapse

Another day, another collapse in the Turkish lira, only this time there was a twist: as the hyperinflating currency implodes, Erdogan has finally had enough of the relentless pummeling, and is starting to shut down its markets.

But first, let’s back up: heading into Friday, the lira accelerated its historic descent, weakening past the 16 per-dollar mark as a central bank pledge to end a four-month cycle of interest rate cuts on Thursday fails to convince investors that inflation can be brought to heel. That was just the start however, and the currency plunge only accelerated crashing as low as 17.14 bringing declines this week to 17%.

As a reminder, the central bank yesterday cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by a further 100 basis points to 14%, its fourth reduction since September spurred by demands from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to lower borrowing costs in the face of surging consumer prices. The resulting sell-off accelerated a 54% plunge in the currency so far this year as real rates fall further below zero with inflation now standing at an annual 21.3%.

Erdogan then responded to the economic pain caused by rising prices by ordering a 50% increase in the minimum wage next year, guaranteeing even more inflation as it will increase production costs that will see inflation accelerate by a further 2% to 8% next year, Erkin Isik, chief economist at QNB Finansbank, wrote in a note to clients.

In any case, once the lira plunged to 17, the central bank spent another billion or so intervening, its 5th intervention just in December. Needless to say, this intervention like all those preceding it, had a halflife of just a few minutes, and shortly after the USDTRY was trading just shy of all time highs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Geopolitical Game That Could Transform Gas Markets

December 5, 2021

The Geopolitical Game That Could Transform Gas Markets

An apparent detente between the UAE and Turkey could be one of the most significant geopolitical developments in the region for decades
If Mohammed bin Zayed can succeed in exploiting Turkey’s economic crisis, the East Mediterranean natural gas fields could finally be exploited and sent to market
While this is a win-win situation for the UAE, it is unclear whether Erdogan will be willing to do what is necessary to ensure progress in the region

At a time when media and financial analysts are fully focused on oil futures, natural gas markets are moving again. East Mediterranean gas futures, in particular, seem to be looking up due to some ongoing regional developments. The unexpected but very successful visit of Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed to Turkey and Egypt may well have long-lasting consequences in the region. The multibillion agreements signed between Turkey and the UAE, especially the long-term investment agreements between the Turkish sovereign wealth fund and UAE corporations, such as Abu Dhabi Ports, seem to be an opening to a new era of cooperation in the region.

The overall optimism shown in Turkish and Abu Dhabi-based media sources, however, should be taken with a grain of salt as financial deals may not counter the ongoing power struggle between Turkey’s president Erdogan and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Both nations are supporting political, military, and economic power projects in the East Mediterranean and MENA regions designed to increase their influence. Turkey’s president Erdogan will see the first visit of MBZ in 12 years as a major triumph. His regional power plays are still a bone of contention in Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and Athens. While Turkish media sources are very optimistic about the perceived thaw in relations, other regional players have been watching with anticipation to understand the real outcome of the meetings.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey On Verge Of Currency Collapse As Lira Implodes, Crashes 4% In Minutes

November 16, 2021

Turkey On Verge Of Currency Collapse As Lira Implodes, Crashes 4% In Minutes

In recent weeks we have had our share of humorous hot takes on the current state of Turkey’s currency, which thanks to the “sage” economic despotism of the country’s authoritarian ruler has been in freefall for much of the past decade.

folks, there’s no stopping this train. pic.twitter.com/VCdQyBmnIt

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 12, 2021

Erdogan wants hyperinflation

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 13, 2021

Well, this morning the most profitable FX short this year of all expanded major FX pairs…

… continued to be the gift that keeps on giving, and collapsed as much as 4% in minutes, in an episode right out of hyperinflationary Argentina or Venezuela.

While there was no immediate catalyst for today’s drop – the lira only dropped below below 10 vs the dollar for the first time ever last Friday – traders are dreading this Thursday’s central bank meeting at which policymakers are expected to cut interest rates further even as Turkish inflation tops 20%.

Citing two local traders, Bloomberg said that the recent move of the lira “is the result of a surge in local demand for the dollar” which, of course, is obvious… even more so since it is extremely difficult if not impossible to buy bitcoin or other cryptos as a hyperinflation/currency collapse hedge.

The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by a further 100 basis points this week to 15%, according to a Bloomberg survey of 21 participants. Meanwhile, inflation is at or above 20%.

And while conventional economists claim there is no way that Turkey can be the next locus of hyperinflation, all we can say there is give Erdoganomics another five years (because Erdo isn’t going anywhere) and check back then.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

NATO Sliding Towards War Against Russia in Ukraine

October 30, 2021

As far as Ukraine goes, Ankara seems to be setting the pace for NATO’s deepening involvement in the country’s war.

Russia is investigating reports of Turkish attack drones being deployed for the first time in Ukraine’s eight-year civil war. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) under the command of the Kiev regime claimed that the drones were used earlier this week in combat against ethnic Russian rebels.

This is a potentially dramatic escalation in the smoldering war. For it marks the direct involvement of NATO member Turkey in the conflict. Up to now, the United States and other NATO states have been supplying lethal weaponry to the Kiev regime to prosecute its war against the breakaway self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

American, British and Canadian military advisors are also known to have carried out training missions with UAF combat units. Britain is in negotiations to sell Brimstone missiles to the Ukrainian navy.

But the apparent deployment of Turkish attack drones is a potential game-changer. Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at the graveness when he announced Wednesday that Moscow was carrying out urgent investigations about the purported participation of Turk-made Bayraktar TB2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.

Previously, Lavrov rebuked Turkey to stay out of the conflict and to not feed Ukrainian hostilities.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that NATO’s support to the Kiev regime was posing a direct threat to Russia’s national security. The Kremlin’s assessment can only be more alarmed on the back of NATO member Turkey being now implicated as one of the war’s protagonists. In all likelihood, Turkish military personnel would be required to assist in operating the drone flights.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Erdogan Declares 10 Western Ambassadors ‘Persona Non Grata’

October 23, 2021

Erdogan Declares 10 Western Ambassadors ‘Persona Non Grata’

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday he’s now given the orders to declare 10 Western ambassadors persona non grata “as soon as possible” – however it’s unclear whether this means they’ll be forced to leave the country.

“I told my foreign minister to declare these 10 ambassadors as persona non grata as soon as possible,” Erdogan said in fresh statements. The day prior he had lashed out at the United States and European countries for their joint statement Monday demanding the immediate release of billionaire philanthropist and businessman Osman Kavala, who has been in Turkish custody since 2017.

The persona non grata designation is against the ambassadors of US, Germany, France, Canada, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and New Zealand.

According to Germany’s Deutsche Welle:

The Turkish president did not clarify whether his order meant that the diplomats — who he accused of “indecency” — would be ordered to leave the country.

However, he added that: “They must leave here the day they no longer know Turkey.”

The prior joint statement the countries had signed lambasted Turkey over human rights violations connected with the Kavala case, and further charged Turkey with backsliding in democracy and the legal rights of citizens. On Friday Erdogan lambasted the demand, saying “Those who defend this Soros leftover are trying to get him released. I told our foreign minister that we cannot afford to host them in our country.” He questioned, “Why would the 10 ambassadors make such a statement?”

He said as cited in Anadolu Agency: “How dare you teach such a lesson to Turkey? Who are you? What do they say? ‘Release Kavala.’ Do you leave the bandits, murderers, terrorists in your own countries?”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Apocalyptic Scenes” – Wildfires Consume Turkey

July 31, 2021

“Apocalyptic Scenes” – Wildfires Consume Turkey

Wildfires have been ravaging Turkey’s Mediterranean coast for the past few days, killing four, burning thousands of building structures, and affecting more than a dozen provinces.

Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin called the wildfires a national disaster.

According to Reuters, at least 60 wildfires have broken out across the country’s Mediterranean and southern Aegean region.

Forestry Minister Pakdemirli said 4,000 firefighters, 680 firefighting vehicles, 38 helicopters, nine drones, and three planes battle the wildfires.

“We were hoping to contain some of the fires as of this morning but while we say cautiously that they are improving, we still cannot say they are under control,” Pakdemirli said.

DW correspondent Julia Hahn tweeted scenes from Manavgat in Antalya province showing “apocalyptic scenes” of one wildfire.

Social media is full of horrifying videos of the wildfires.

Senior scientist of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Mark Parrington used satellite data to determine the “deadly scale” of the wildfires and shows which coastal areas are most affected.

Another view of the wildfires from space.

There’s still no word how the destructive fires began, but one government says “sabotage” cannot be ruled out.

Fahrettin Altun, the Turkish presidential communications director, said “comprehensive investigations” are being launched into the origins of the wildfires.

“Those responsible will have to account for the attacks against nature and forests,” Altun tweeted.

Turkey has been plagued with a heat wave like much of southeast Europe.

In neighboring Greece, authorities warned the public against the heightened risk of wildfires during the latest heat wave.

“A difficult weather phenomenon is coming in the next days with extremely high temperatures and several days of heat wave,” Citizens’ Protection Minister Michalis Chrysochoidis said. “I call on – I urge – everyone to show the highest degree of responsibility and cooperation.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Russian Warplanes Pounding Turkish Proxies in Greater Idlib

December 26, 2020

RUSSIAN WARPLANES POUNDING TURKISH PROXIES IN GREATER IDLIB

A large part of the airstrikes targeted the outskirts of the town of Kabani. Photos shared by opposition activists show smoke rising from several hills in the town’s vicinity, where a complex network of tunnels, trenches and fortifications were built over the last two years. Kabani is a well-known stronghold of al-Qaeda-affiliated groups – Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkistan Islamic Army and Ajnad al-Kavkaz.

The new wave of Russian airstrikes on Kabani coincided with intense shelling by the Syrian Army on the southern Idlib countryside. Syrian troops also targeted a vehicle of militants in western Idlib with an anti-tank guided missile.

This is not the first round of air and artillery strikes on positions of militants in the southern part of the Idlib de-escalation zone. Last week, Syrian forces and Russian warplanes delivered over 100 strikes on different targets.

Pro-militant sources link these developments with the recent deployment of the Syrian Army reinforcements in the al-Ghab Plains claiming that this is a part of the preparations for an offensive operation there.

Meanwhile, reports appeared that following the successful cases in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey is considering to use its Syrian proxies in northern Iraq. Members of Turkish-backed militant groups proved themselves as useful cannon fodder taking the main casualties as Turkish special forces, artillery and air power deal with their opponents. This time, Turkish proxies will get a chance to sacrifice their lives in the battle against the PKK.

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