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The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

The Strait of Hormuz and ‘the Spice’

Frankly #61

In this week’s Frankly, I’d like to highlight the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a global supply chain choke point where nearly half of the world’s oil available for export travels through on a daily basis. In the midst of high-stakes geo-political events where threats (and misery) from warring nations dominate the discourse, we remain (mostly) energy blind to the bottlenecks that lie at the center of these conflicts, which if disrupted could send our liquid-combustible-fuel dependent economies crashing.

How could the threat of expanding regional wars – especially Iran’s potential response in the Strait of Hormuz – impact the world’s reliance on the flow of oil? Who are the people making world-altering decisions – and do they have the best interest of the future in mind? Can a heightened awareness of our global system’s dependency on fragile energy supply chains shift our focus away from escalating risks towards deconfliction and peace?



In case you missed it…

Last week, I was joined by Luther Krueger to discuss one example of a category of innovation that I’ve taken to calling ‘Goldilocks tech’ – which uses accessible and abundant materials to achieve important tasks for human societies with less or considerably less energy and material throughput. In the western world, most of us are used to indoor, gas or electric stoves, typically powered by fossil fuels, and in a third of the world, people are still using solid fuels – wood, coal, or dung – which come with many health and environmental risks. Solar ovens are an alternative which makes use of passive solar energy at a range of temperatures and can be made from basic or reused materials.

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Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For “Enhanced Military Presence” As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

Shipping Industry Pleads With UN For “Enhanced Military Presence” As Maritime Choke-Point Chaos Spreads

Exactly one week ago, Iranian commandos seized a container ship affiliated with Israel as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This action sparked new fears of another maritime chokepoint becoming disrupted as the crisis in the Middle East escalated. It also prompted a plea by the international shipping industry to the United Nations, urging an increase in military patrols along key shipping routes.

First reported by the maritime news website gGaptain, an open letter co-signed by 16 maritime industry associations and social partners, calls for urgent assistance and reminds countries about their responsibilities under international law.

“However, the incident this weekend, when the vessel MSC Aries was seized by Iranian forces at 06.37 UTC – 50 nautical miles north-east of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates on Saturday 13 April, has once again highlighted the intolerable situation where shipping has become a target. This is unacceptable,” the signatories of the letter stated.

“Given the continually evolving and severe threat profile within the area, we call on you for enhanced coordinated military presence, missions and patrols in the region, to protect our seafarers against any further possible aggression,” they said, adding, “The industry associations ask that all member states be formally reminded of their responsibilities under international law. And we ask that all efforts possible are brought to bear to release the seafarers and protect the safe transit of ships.”

After the MSC Aries seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, we published a note titled “Heading For Supply Shock? Four Maritime Chokepoints Flash Red As Escalating Conflict Looms,” outlining the maritime chokepoints, including the Suez Canal, Bab-El Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of all global trade flows, that are experiencing increased conflict.

In a recent note, MUFG provided a global snapshot of the world’s maritime chokepoints.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Middle East Crisis: Container Ship Hijacked Near Strait Of Hormuz Amid Soaring Iran Tensions

Middle East Crisis: Container Ship Hijacked Near Strait Of Hormuz Amid Soaring Iran Tensions

While Israel on Friday braced for cruise missile and suicide drone attacks, there are new reports on Saturday morning that Iranian commandos hijacked an Israeli-affiliated container ship heading towards the Strait of Hormuz.

AP News says the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations initially reported the hijacking of Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship linked to London-based Zodiac Maritime. Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer controls the international ship management company that owns and charters large vessels.

Video of the boarding has been circulating X for the past hour. However, “AP could not immediately verify the video, it corresponded to known details of the boarding, and the helicopter involved appeared to be one used by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has carried out other ship raids in the past,” the media outlet said.

According to Bloomberg data, MSC Aries was leaving a port from Dubai on Thursday and heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel’s last known position was recorded around 1256 local time on Friday off Dubai’s coast. AP noted that the ship’s transponder had been switched off.

X user Megatron called the ship’s seizure by Iran a “big game changer”:

This once again is confirming that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar are helping Israel bypass the Houthi blockade by land route from the UAE port.

Iran is now cutting that route as well. 

If Hezbollah cut the Mediterranean route with its drones, Israel could fall into a complete trade blockade.

The incident in the Strait of Hormuz is very concerning since maritime chokepoints in the region are plagued with conflict. Off of Yemen, in the Bab-El Mandeb Strait, Iran-backed Houthis have unleashed multi-month drone and missile attacks against US, UK, and Israeli vessels.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

3,000 US Troops Enter Gulf Region In Latest Escalation With Iran

3,000 US Troops Enter Gulf Region In Latest Escalation With Iran

Two American warships with over 3,000 newly deployed US military personnel between them have entered the Red Sea, new statements confirm Monday, as part of the Pentagon’s efforts to thwart Iranian seizures of international vessels in regional waters.

The US Fifth Fleet announced Monday the ships have transited the Suez Canal with the fresh deployment of sailors and Marines. The Bahrain-based command said the USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall warships provide “greater flexibility and maritime capability” in ensuring the safety of global shipping in the Gulf and Mideast area of operations.

US Navy, file image

The statement further said the new troops and warships will seek to “deter destabilizing activity and de-escalate regional tensions caused by Iran’s harassment and seizures of merchant vessels.” Both US warships are amphibious assault-style vessels with rapid deployment capabilities of both Marines and helicopters, and other assets.

It comes after the Pentagon has tallied that over 20 internationally-flagged tankers have been either seized or harassed by Iran’s military over the last two years, particularly in the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Last week the Pentagon announced an unconventional and controversial plan to “deploy a security guard composed of Marines on board commercial tankers passing through and near the Strait of Hormuz, to form an additional layer of defense for these ships,” according to Fifth Fleet spokesman Tim Hawkins.

But there are legal questions and hurdles to such a proposal, still reportedly being mulled – given the US Marines would be dealing with various foreign vessels, and presumably some would not give permission for them to board. It further remains unclear whether the Marines would only provide security details on US-flagged tankers, or among other close Western allies such as British-flagged vessels.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Iran Opens Export Terminal To Bypass World’s Biggest Oil Chokepoint

Iran Opens Export Terminal To Bypass World’s Biggest Oil Chokepoint

Iran says it has opened its first oil export terminal in the Gulf of Oman to allow Tehran to avoid using the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route that has long been a focus of regional tensions.

“Today, the first shipment of 100 tons of oil is loaded outside the Strait of Hormuz,” President Hassan Rohani said in a televised speech on July 22, calling it an “important step for Iran” that will “secure the continuation of our oil exports.”

The new terminal, located near the port city of Jask, will allow tankers headed into the Arabian Sea and beyond to avoid the Strait of Hormuz at the head of the Persian Gulf, through which one-fifth of world oil output passes.

Rohani said Iran aimed to export 1 million barrels per day of oil from the facility, which officials said will cost some $2 billion.

Oil Minister Zanganeh said that “82 percent of this project has been completed and so far more than $1.2 billion has been spent on this.”

Iran’s main oil export terminal is located at Kharg inside the narrow strait, which is patrolled by warships of its arch-foe, the United States.

There have been periodic confrontations between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the U.S. military in the area.

Iran has often threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if its crude exports were shut down by U.S. sanctions, which have heavily impacted Iranian energy exports.

Washington reimposed the sanctions more than three years ago when then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

Tehran and U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration have been in indirect talks in Vienna since April to try to revive the agreement, under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for the lifting of most international sanctions.

Finding A Way Around The World’s Largest Oil Chokepoint

Finding A Way Around The World’s Largest Oil Chokepoint

Oil is sometimes referred to as ‘black gold’. The discovery and export of fossil fuels have led to tremendous wealth creation for certain countries. In this sense, no region in the world is more blessed than the Middle East. Especially the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf are rich in oil and gas deposits. Unfortunately, political instability is almost a synonym for the Middle East. The risk of supply disruptions is a significant threat for those heavily reliant on fossil fuel sales. Therefore, risk mitigation is an important part of the business.

The antagonism between Iran and the U.S. escalated significantly under President Trump. According to sources, Washington came close to acting militarily but the President was dissuaded when informed on the risks and potential losses. Skyrocketing oil prices are one of those consequences as Tehran has repeatedly threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz in case it is attacked. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil travels through the narrow strait separating mainland Iran from Oman and the UAE. Even a short disruption of supplies will most definitely have a devastating effect on prices. Circumventing the Strait, therefore, is essential to maintain exports to markets.

While Iran has been the most vocal when it comes to threats concerning the Strait, it has a contingency plan if the situation escalates. The country is currently building a pipeline from Goreh near the border with Iraq and Kuwait where the majority of the country’s oil is produced to Jask on the Gulf of Oman. The project is slated to be finished in March 2021 and has a capacity of one million barrels per day (mbpd).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Says It Chased Off US Spy Plane During Large-Scale Hormuz Exercises

On Friday the AFP reported on some surprising statement from Iran’s military, which however remains unconfirmed from the US side:

The Iranian navy on Friday said it drove off American aircraft that flew close to an area where military exercises were underway near the Strait of Hormuz.

US Navy P-8A Poseidon, file image via Boeing

Specifically it was claimed that three total American aircraft, including a P-8 spy plane, a MQ-9 drone and a RQ-4 drone, were caught entering Iran’s air defense identification zone and were picked up by their radar.

Iran’s navy claimed that after “ignoring warnings by Iran’s defense systems to keep away from the drill zone” the American planes were tracked by an Iranian drone before “they changed course and left the zone.”

The Iranians are in the midst of three-day “Zolfaghar 99” exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit point, with the drills stretching into the Indian Ocean.

Despite Washington’s maximum pressure campaign still intense as ever in the form of sanctions, the kind of direct conflict witnessed early this year with the killing of the IRGC’s Qassem Soleimani has been largely absent this summer.

Iranian Fotros drone, via state media

Recall that days following the US drone strike on the elite commander while exiting the Baghdad airport, Iran responded with major missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, which in a sense remained “the final word” on the matter.

Likely not wanting to escalate things to a full-blown war, the Trump administration did not retaliate for the missile attack, which reportedly left dozens of US troops with concussion type injuries.

Iran Conducts Annual War Drill To Thwart “Foreign Threats And Possible Invasion”

Adding to the regional instabilities in the Gulf of Oman, near the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway, the Iranian military launched its annual three-day naval exercise on Thursday.

Iranian commander Admiral Habibollah Sardari, who is leading the drills, told Iranian state TV that the exercise would allow the military to thwart future “foreign threats and any possible invasion.”

Reuters notes the exercise is being conducted in the eastern side of the strait in the Gulf of Oman, a hot spot that was the site of last year’s tanker attacks.

The annual exercise, dubbed as Zolfaghar-99, will include naval, air, and ground forces. The drill will also include warships, submarines, fighter jets, and unmanned aerial systems.

The location of the exercise is situated near the world’s most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, which has large volumes of oil that flow through the strait via tankers, accounting for about 30% of all the world’s oil traded in a given year.

Tensions have risen between Tehran and Washington this summer, mostly after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard blew up a replica aircraft carrier in the strait.

Then in August, the Iranian Navy briefly boarded a Liberian-flagged oil tanker. The area has also seen a rise in Iran threatening oil tankers and US warships.

Ahead of the war drill, we noted last week how Iran’s state-controlled Afkar News saying that “American Soil Is Now Within the Range of Iranian Bombs.” The report bragged about the damage that the Iranian military could inflict on the Western powers:

“By sending a military satellite into space, Iran now has shown that it can target all American territory; the Iranian parliament had previously warned [the US] that an electromagnetic nuclear attack on the United States would likely kill 90 percent of Americans.”

With Iran increasingly flouting its military strength ahead of the election, tensions between Tehran and Washington will continue to rise.

Tanker Operators Suspend Travel Through Strait Of Hormuz

Tanker Operators Suspend Travel Through Strait Of Hormuz

Following Iran’s decision to lob missiles at US-Iraqi bases last night, several major tanker operators have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, the site of several tanker attacks last year.

Petrobras, Bahri – Saudi Arabia’s state-run tanker operator – and other tanker companies have suspended sailing through the Straits of Hormuz, WSJ reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Meanwhile, Gulf officials are already trying to convince the world that there’s nothing to worry about in what’s essentially a tinderbox inside another tinderbox. United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on Wednesday he saw no immediate risk to oil passing through the critical gateway through which 20% of the global supply of crude travels. al-Mazrouei made the comments on the sidelines of a conference in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital.

The source of their concerns is clear: Iran carried out its “retaliation” for the killing of General Suleimani last night – though the Pentagon has confirmed that there have been no American casualties from Iran’s strikes. However, many fear that Iran isn’t finished with its retaliation. 

Mazrouei added that OPEC was not discussing any precautionary steps at the moment, but would re-evaluate the situation if a supply shortage emerged, according to Reuters. He said earlier that the global oil market was well supplied.

Oil prices initially moved higher after last night’s attacks, but prices have since settled, and the market largely ignored the news about the tanker suspensions, as it was already largely priced in.

On Tuesday, Washington warned about “the possibility of Iranian action against US maritime interests” in the Middle East.

“U.S. commercial vessels are advised to exercise caution and coordinate vessel voyage planning for transits of the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways,” the U.S. Maritime Administration said in a statement on its website.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Japan To Send Its Own Military Force To Strait Of Hormuz

Japan To Send Its Own Military Force To Strait Of Hormuz

Ever since the new round of ‘tanker wars’ began in Strait of Hormuz in mid-June with a mysterious mine attack on multiple tankers, one involving a Japanese-owned ship, Tokyo has reportedly mulled sending a Japanese defense force to the area to help protect vital shipping lanes. 

In a rare move, the pacifist nation appears ready to pull the trigger, as FT reports, citing chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, who indicated that “the government was planning to deploy forces in a region where a Japanese tanker, the Kokuka Courageous, was recently attacked with a limpet mine.”

Japanese Defense Forces file image.

Japan’s Asahi newspaper also reported that the self-defense troop deployment to the vital Persian Gulf passage way comes “instead of joining the U.S.-coalition”.

Japan had been among many US allies urged to assist in forming a US-led maritime security patrol — a plan which many feared would only exacerbate tensions with Iran, only leading to war. In not joining the US-led security mission, Tokyo is ensuring it won’t damage important economic ties with Iran.

FT describes what such a Japanese expedition will likely involve:

A Japanese expedition would probably involve ships and aircraft from the Maritime Self-Defense Force. [Chief Cabinet Secretary] Mr Suga said its operations would be limited to international waters in the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.

He said the dispatch would take place under provisions of Japanese law allowing for military information gathering and research. The pacifist constitution tightly proscribes how Japan can deploy its military and any ships it sends would use force only in self-defense.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Emirati-Flagged Ship Seized By Iran In Strait Of Hormuz On Suspicion Of Smuggling Diesel

Emirati-Flagged Ship Seized By Iran In Strait Of Hormuz On Suspicion Of Smuggling Diesel

Following reports that it’s planning to release a UK-flagged oil tanker that it seized two months ago, Iran has reportedly seized a UAE-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and detained its 11-member crew.

The IRGC, which was responsible for seizing the vessel, accused it of smuggling diesel. The ship was reportedly carrying 250,000 liters of diesel when it was captured, along with 30 handheld flares, which are sometimes used for facilitating clandestine transfers at sea.

The ship’s crew are reportedly being held in the coastal city of Bandar Lengeh, though it’s unclear where their ship is being held.

“The ship was seized nearly 20 miles to the east of Greater Tunb with 11 seamen onboard while heading to the Arab United Emirate,” IRGC general Ali Azmaei told Iranian media.

The capture was initially reported by Iran’s FARS news agency, according to a tweet by Al Arabiya, a Saudi news organization.


وكالة فارس الإيرانية تنقل عن الحرس الثوري احتجاز سفينة بذريعة “تهريب الديزل” #العربية_عاجل https://www.alarabiya.net


Amid all the drama at home, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani traveled to Ankara for a meeting with the presidents of Turkey and Russia on Monday.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7

Iran Deploys 2 Warships To Escort Commercial Vessels As Zarif Flies To Beijing After G-7

The threshold to an armed conflict around the Persian Gulf just got even smaller.

On Monday, Iran said it had deployed two warships – a destroyer and a helicopter carrier – to protect the country’s commercial vessels around the Gulf of Aden, located between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa, and Persian Gulf region amid a growing US-driven military build-up in the volatile region, which recently culminated with several tanker seizures on both sides, the navy times reports.

Iran’s brand new destroyer Sahand and the supply ship/replenishment carrier Kharg whiuch has a helicopter pad and services as lositics support,  were deployed to the Gulf of Aden and Sea of Oman and tasked with escorting ships in international waters.

The “Sahand” commissioned in December 2018, is Iran’s most advanced home-made warship. It has a stealth hull and can travel a further than the previous class destroyers without refueling. It is equipped with surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles as well as anti-aircraft batteries and radar and radar evading capabilities.

Iranian naval forces attend a Dec. 1 inauguration ceremony for the destroyer Sahand, in Bandar Abbas, Iran

Tehran’s decision to escort its cargo vessels comes at a time of escalating tensions in the Gulf, with US and UK warships operating in and around the Persian Gulf under the “defensive” premise that Iran is the aggressor behind June’s attacks on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Accusing Tehran of ‘sponsoring terrorism’ and running a secret nuclear program, Washington has beefed up its military in the region with more troops and hardware, including an aircraft carrier and bombers.

In early July, the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya, previously known as Grace 1, was seized off the coast of Gibraltar for allegedly carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Smoke Will Rise From Tel Aviv”: Iran Warns Israel Against Joining US Maritime Coalition

“Smoke Will Rise From Tel Aviv”: Iran Warns Israel Against Joining US Maritime Coalition

The same day that Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a formal statement warning that any Israeli involvement in the proposed US-led joint maritime coalition in the Gulf is a “clear threat” to Iran’s national security, a separate statement from a senior government official has threatened war would engulf Israel should it send boats into the Strait of Hormuz.

Senior Advisor to the Iranian Parliament, Speaker Hossein Amir Abdollahian, said Friday that “smoke will rise from Tel Aviv” should Israel joint the United States’ maritime patrol in the gulf.

Image source: AFP

“If Israel enters the Strait of Hormuz, it will be engulfed in the wrath of the region and its smoke will rise from Tel Aviv,” the senior official threatened in a statement posted on Twitter.

According to Reuters, Israeli media had quoted Foreign Minister Israel Katz early in the week as confirming discussions were underway among top defense officials over possibly joining a US maritime protection initiative in the Persian Gulf.

Israel’s role could come down to intelligence-sharing, however, given the explosive potential for conflict should its forces actually deploy in the region. Israeli officials have yet to confirm nor deny the reports. 

Abdollahian’s statement explained further: “Iran has a vital role in the security of the Strait of Hormuz. Any US-led military coalition in the strait is a repetition of Iraq and Afghanistan occupation and escalation of insecurity in the region.”

Iran’s leaders have repeatedly warned that only its forces can secure the vital narrow oil shipping waterway, and have said stepped up western patrols will only destabilize the region. 

The Foreign Ministry has warned this week that Iran’s military reserves the right to “counter this threat and defend its territory,” while referring to any hostile foreign powers on or near its territory. 

Iran Seizes Foreign Oil Tanker Accused Of Smuggling Fuel

Iran Seizes Foreign Oil Tanker Accused Of Smuggling Fuel

In what will be seen as another escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized a foreign oil tanker in the Persian Gulf on July 31, adding to rising concerns about the safety of shipping in a region crucial to oil exports.

The vessel – the third foreign ship seized by Iran in the Gulf since July 14 in response to a UK seizure of Iran’s own ship – is suspected of smuggling a large volume of fuel, the Guards said on their Sepah News portal according to Bloomberg. They did not, however, give any details about the flag or nationality of the ship or its operator.

The ship’s seizure took place last Wednesday, Sepah News, the Revolutionary Guard’s official news service, reported, a day after United Arab Emirates officials traveled to Iran to discuss maritime border cooperation and the flow of shipping traffic, including illegal movements.

The ship was carrying 700,000 liters (4,403 barrels) of smuggled fuel when it was seized near Farsi Island in the western part of the Gulf, off Iran’s southwestern coast, Sepah News reported. The island is located about 400 miles (640 kilometers) from the Strait of Hormuz, the volatile center of Iran’s standoff with the West in recent weeks. Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that the seized ship is an Iraqi tanker that was delivering the fuel to some Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian state news agency IRNA reported that a video of the moment the vessel was seized showed it was Iraqi, although as the WSJ notes, maritime confrontations between Iran and Iraq are considered rare. The Iraqi ship’s seizure would follow July’s visit to Tehran by Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi, who has sought to ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran, both close allies of Iraq.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Iran Slams “Hostile Message” As 2nd UK Warship Arrives In Crowded Gulf

Iran Slams “Hostile Message” As 2nd UK Warship Arrives In Crowded Gulf

On the same day the large British warship HMS Duncan arrived in the Persian Gulf to assist the MHS Montrose in providing safety escorts to UK-flagged ships against the threat of Iranian seizure in the vital oil transit waterway, Tehran has again slammed the UK-led initiative of a joint European fleet patrolling the region. 

An Iranian government spokesman warned on Sunday that a joint European task force operating so close to Iran’s coast “sends a hostile message” and is “provocative and will increase tensions,” according to semi-official Fars News Agency. The rhetoric is nothing new; however what is new and poses immense danger for the prospect of stumbling toward major conflict is the frequency of US and UK warships’ movement in the increasingly “crowded” narrow Strait of Hormuz

.@HMSDuncan has arrived in the Gulf, where she will support the safe passage of British-flagged ships along with @HMS_MONTROSE, which has already accompanied 35 merchant vessels. Read more: http://ow.ly/5zQn50vegZY 

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Britain’s controversial call for a “European-led maritime protection mission”quickly gained the support last week of keyEU nations France and Germany, with Denmark and The Netherlands also joining the initiative. 

The BBC reports that the HMS Montrose has thus far escorted 35 vessels through the strait, according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD). The larger HMS Duncan frigate will further join what Britain has dubbed “freedom of navigation” operations not just for UK vessels but “also our international partners and allies,” according Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

This as London has kept up pressure for the release of the still impounded Stena Impero, and after Iran’s leaders last week appeared to offer an “exchange” of vessels of sorts, demanding the release of the Grace 1, which had been seized by Royal Marines early this month off Gibraltar. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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