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Simon Michaux: The Green Energy Myth

Simon Michaux: The Green Energy Myth

Green energy, it turns out, is something of a myth.  And, given all that’s at stake, a rather dangerous myth. Welcome to this Off The Cuff podcast with Professor Simon Michaux

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There is no topic more important than today’s.  Everything hinges on “us” getting it right.  And by us I mean the entire global population.

That topic is energy.  Specifically, the energy transition away from fossil fuels generally but oil most urgently.  Why?  Because oil is central to everything about our current way of life.  The capital markets only function while expanding, literally millions of distinct products find the headwaters of their genesis in building blocks derived from oil.  95% of everything moves from point A to point B moves because of oil.

Heck, you eat oil in the form of oil-extracted or produced fertilizers, tractor activity, pesticides, and herbicides, and the fact that the average calorie you eat first traveled 1,500 miles before landing on your plate, every mile of that enabled by oil.

If we get this transition wrong – either by failing to plan appropriately or, worse, fibbing to ourselves by selling a set of technologies that cannot do what we’ll need them to do – then massive pain awaits.  Economies will crash, as will populations.  Wars will be fought.

Today we’re talking with Simon Michaux, an associate professor of geo-metallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland and a key figure in the Circular Economy Solutions Unit.  Dr. Michaux has done the math.  He’s taken the time to study mining and resources and then performs some simple arithmetic to determine that…uh oh…we haven’t got a chance in the world of making an easy energy transition.  None.  The reasons are many, but the core of the problem is we’ve put the wrong people in charge and allowed flawed narratives to take flight unchallenged.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Rising Chorus of Renewable Energy Skeptics

The Rising Chorus of Renewable Energy Skeptics

The green techno-dream is so vastly destructive, they say, ‘we have to come up with a different plan.’

“Sometime during this century, it is highly likely that worldwide depletion of natural resources will force an entire reorganization of social and economic structures, perhaps violently.” — Walter Youngquist, ‘Our Plundered Planet

We are going to have to dramatically downsize the dream of a future in which we replace 150-year-old fossil fuel infrastructure with “clean energy” by 2050.

That’s the message in a number of recent important reports and books. They underscore a number of problems with the renewables illusion, including the complexity of the task, the toxicity of rare earth mining and the scarcity of critical minerals.

These grounded realists, including the French journalist Guillaume Pitron and the Australian geologist Simon Michaux, all have three basic messages:

There are dramatic limits to growth.

Truth and reality are not linear.

And the world needs a better plan to avoid collapse other than replacing one unsustainable fossil fuel system with another intensive mining system powered by even more extreme energies. In other words, electrifying the Titanic won’t melt the icebergs in its path.

‘Doubling down on the wrong thing’

For largely ideological reasons many greens and “transitionists” have presented the transition to renewables as a smooth road with no potholes.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Two Different Perspectives – Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End Soon

Two Different Perspectives – Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End Soon

 

Dr. Berndt Warm’s Perspective

Thanks to Marromai for finding this new paper by physicist Dr. Berndt Warm.

Dr. Warm uses 5 different methods, 4 relying on economics, and 1 on thermodynamics, to predict when the end of oil production and motor vehicle production will occur. All 5 methods roughly converge on 2030 as the year when modern lifestyles end.

The essay was written in German and translated to English which explains any awkward phrasing.

Warm’s conclusion agrees with my 15 years of study of many different sources which converge on oil production being down by about 50% in 2030. Because our current system requires growth not to collapse, it is plausible that predicting a 50% decline is the same as predicting a 100% decline.

Our world is of course far too complex to make precise predictions, and unexpected events like a pandemic or nuclear war can dramatically change the outcome, however for planning purposes it seems reasonable to assume we have about 5 years left to prepare for a new way of life.

Abstract

Evaluation of five data sets concerning car production, oil prices converted in energy values gives lifespan approximations for the car industry and the oil industry. The result is that the car industry will last only until 2027 and the oil industry some years more.

Here are a few excerpts from the paper:

The author interprets the line of maxima as the oil price that the industrialized countries can afford to the maximum while maintaining their lifestyle. He interprets the line of minima as the price of oil that the producing countries need to keep their economies running. In mid-2019, the author noticed this crossroads and expected a crisis in 2020, although he was completely unclear what kind of crisis it would be. He didn’t expect Corona.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Green Transition is Physically Impossible

The Green Transition is Physically Impossible

Getting real: It’s time to crunch the numbers on the transition from fossil fuels

Getting real: It’s time to crunch the numbers on the transition from fossil fuels

What is needed for a transition to a clean energy environment?
What is needed for a transition to a clean energy environment?
Analysis: We are used to hearing world leaders talk in blizzards of numbers about targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and activists bidding higher, demanding the world move faster to net zero.
But has anyone sat down and done the calculations on the physical requirements of completely retooling an industrial system that was built over more than 100 years on coal, oil and gas?
Fossil fuel doesn’t just power electricity systems and run cars, it is embedded in the manufacture of steel, cement, plastic and the ammonia used to fertilise the world’s crops.
Physicist and former Australian mining engineer associate professor Simon Michaux has spent years looking at the hard data on making this transition. He now works for the Geological Survey of Finland and set out to answer the question: what kinds of minerals and in what quantities will be required to supply the incoming lithium-ion battery factories of Europe?
He then expanded his work to look at the size of the task of meeting the stated emissions reduction ambitions of the European Union, China and the United States. Take one example – what will it take to run the estimated global fleet of 1.416 billion vehicles on batteries when right now only 0.51 per cent of it is electric? And an electric car demands seven times the critical minerals of a conventional car.
In conversation with Nine News, Professor Michaux says he found there are not enough global mineral reserves to manufacture even the first generation of the planned non-fossil fuel industrial systems.
“The nature of the task in front of us – when we actually start looking at the numbers, the reality of what we are looking at – it’s simply not going to go as planned,” Professor Michaux says.

IEO Virutal Seminar: The Market for Rare Minerals and Implications for Phasing Out Fossil Fuels: Where Do We Stand?

IEO Virutal Seminar: The Market for Rare Minerals and Implications for Phasing Out Fossil Fuels: Where Do We Stand?

Alan Jones: Net Zero

Alan Jones: Net Zero

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1172852053278410

 

It’s Time to Wake Up – The Currently Known Global Mineral Reserves Will Not Be Sufficient to Supply Enough Metals to Manufacture the Planned Non-fossil Fuel Industrial Systems

It’s Time to Wake Up – The Currently Known Global Mineral Reserves Will Not Be Sufficient to Supply Enough Metals to Manufacture the Planned Non-fossil Fuel Industrial Systems

The research report made by Associate Research Professor Simon Michaux from Geological Survey of Finland GTK shows that if we want to transition away from fossil fuels, mining of minerals and using recycled minerals and metals from industrial waste streams in new ways will have to increase greatly.

No matter what minerals will be needed, we will need large quantities of them as the renewable power sources like wind and solar, require extensive mineral resources to manufacture the infrastructure for fossil-free energy.

And there is a challenge. Given the estimated required number of Electric Vehicles (EV’s) of different vehicle class, it is clear that there are not enough minerals in the currently reported global reserves to build just one generation of batteries for all EV’s and stationary power storage, in the global industrial ecosystem as it is today.

The World needs a new plan to build a genuinely sustainable non-fossil fuel industrial ecosystem

Decisive actions need to be planned to diversify sustainable material/metal/mineral sourcing, where manufacture could be done with parallel technology systems that require different material chemistries. In doing so, current reported mineral reserves may be sufficient for long term supply.

Key elements include developing new ways to utilize minerals, metals and materials of our industrial waste and to promote manufacture of easily recyclable products.

Exploration for new mineral deposits, feasibility studies, and pilot scale tests of existing known deposits will be needed on an unprecedented scale, will be needed all over the world. The restructuring society and the industrial ecosystem to consume less and establish a new relationship with raw materials and energy might be needed.

Metal levels towards low carbon world

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Mineral Supply Crisis That’s Rarely Talked About

The Mineral Supply Crisis That’s Rarely Talked About

Energy Resources and Bursting Some Comfy Bubbles

Energy Resources and Bursting Some Comfy Bubbles

Calculation of the Extra Capacity Required of Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation Systems to Completely Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Calculation of the Extra Capacity Required of Non-Fossil Fuel Power Generation Systems to Completely Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Abstract

The task to phase out fossil fuels is now at hand. Most studies and publications to date focus on why fossil fuels should be phased out. This paper presents the physical requirements in terms of required non-fossil fuel industrial capacity, to completely phase out fossil fuels, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem. The existing industrial ecosystem dependency on fossil fuels was mapped by fuel (oil, gas, and coal) and by industrial application. Data was collected globally for fossil fuel consumption, physical activity, and industrial actions for the year 2018. The number of vehicles in the global transport fleet was collected by class (passenger cars, buses, commercial vans, HCV Class 8 trucks, delivery trucks, etc.). The rail transport network, the international maritime shipping fleet, and the aviation transport fleet were mapped, in terms of activity and vehicle class. For each type of vehicle class, the distance travelled was estimated. Non-fossil fuel technology units that are commercially available on the market now were assembled to substitute fossil fuel supported technology. An example was selected to represent each vehicle class, for Electrical Vehicle and Hydrogen fuel cell systems. The requirements to substitute the ICE rail network and the maritime fleet with EV and hydrogen fuel cell systems were presented. The quantity of electrical power required to charge the batteries of a complete EV system was estimated. The quantity of electrical power to manufacture the required hydrogen for a complete H-cell system was estimated. An examination and comparison between EV and H-cell systems was conducted. Other fossil fuel industrial tasks like electrical power generation, building heating with gas and steel manufacture with coal were mapped and requirements for non-fossil fuel substitution were out estimated…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Mineral Supply Crisis That’s Rarely Talked About

The Mineral Supply Crisis That’s Rarely Talked About

 

The Myth of The “Energy Transition”

The Myth of The “Energy Transition”

Today I want to tackle once again the subject of the much-hyped “energy transition” which has been thoroughly debunked from articles, books, documentaries, and presentation videos such as Planet of the Humans, Bright Green Lies (also located here), Life After Fossil Fuels, Earth and Humanity: Myth and Reality, The Hydrogen Economy Myth, Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet, What Would it Take for Humanity to Experience Radical Transformation? and Pulling Back The Curtain On The Energy Transition Tale. I have pointed out how these hilarious ideas attempt to use technology to solve the problems and predicaments that technology use has CAUSED, which most people can deduce is an impossibility. Some people have accused me of being a “technology hater” which is completely false. I’m not really much different than most people, I enjoy all the modern conveniences that technology provides and am very grateful for the many varied advancements that technology has made possible (especially medical advancements). Given this, however, I am also well aware of the overall costs technology use has exacted upon the environment which surrounds us.

Now I have yet one more piece of evidence outlining how these false narratives about an “energy transition” is simply not to be. This new report, Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels, has been made available by Professor Simon Michaux. I introduced it by including three paragraphs in the Abstract, quote:

Calculations reported here suggest that the total additional non-fossil fuel electrical power annual capacity to be added to the global grid will need to be around 37,670.6 TWh. If the same non-fossil fuel energy mix as that reported in 2018 is assumed, then this translates into an extra 221,594 new power plants will be needed to be constructed and commissioned.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What Kind of Mindsets Lead Us Into Traps?

What Kind of Mindsets Lead Us Into Traps?

First picture: Morning, Hamilton Ranch (aka Carroll Ranch), Big Hole Valley, Montana
Second picture: Beaverslide used for hay. Agriculture is what led into civilization.

After quite an interesting last week, I have a better understanding of why so many people fall into the different “traps” and mindsets that we do. Rarely do we see the bars around us and as such, we often forget precisely which boundaries are real and set in stone, which ones are real and temporary, and which ones are only illusory and imagined. This brings a new aura to the forefront; one which explains why it is so necessary to Live Now. Peter Russell points out one of the big issues surrounding modern humans, looking for external items we think we are missing in our lives.

One of my friends, Simon Michaux, just came out with a new video describing precisely where we are with regards to mining and extraction and the Limits to Growth. The content probably doesn’t surprise anyone who has been paying attention, but the implications of where this leads should be noted to those who think that technology is going to help society dig out from ecological overshoot. Technology use and addiction is precisely what has put us in this position, so giving it up and letting go of it is the only useful way to dig out from the collective hole we find ourselves in. The longer we continue using technology, the more damage we do to the environment (resulting in more climate change, pollution loading, ocean acidification, SLR, species and biodiversity decline, extinction, less carbon sequestration, etc., etc.).

This new study accurately points out how most of society views climate change as the biggest predicament society faces rather than its parent predicament, ecological overshoot; and in the process ignores the main driver of collapse, quote:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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