In my last article, I spent a considerable amount of time describing how a large part of society today is still mired in mainstream thinking and I pointed out how I don’t see or expect the possibility that much will change in the future based upon a general lack of interest in the subject of ecological overshoot and collapse along with the myriad symptom predicaments that overshoot produces. Much of the material is subject matter that I have covered here before, although some of that (subject matter) was covered a considerable while back.

It’s just that I see so much material consistently which is based on what amounts to unicorn magic pixie dust rather than actual science or even common sense once one understands the basics of overshoot. Take for instance this approach from Simon Michaux, which has already been attempted in many different forms in the past, most famously as The Venus Project. Attempting such projects entirely ignores ecological overshoot and the simple fact that civilization itself is unsustainable. Michaux made himself widely known for his telling the “Captains of Industry” that their plan to replace fossil fuels with non-renewable “renewable” energy harvesting devices, simply stated, would not work. So, his plan now has replaced these devices with thorium modular nuclear reactors and he is embarking on a project to build a “radical tomorrow.” Unfortunately, this project is destined for failure. It isn’t how civilization is powered that is the issue, it is the fact that civilization is built on the platform of technology use, making BOTH of those systems unsustainable. It is precisely the power of technology to remove or reduce negative feedbacks allowing for population growth which then feeds back into a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop of more people, more technology use, and increasing overshoot. Powering it differently won’t change anything – the systems themselves will remain unsustainable.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The End of the Colombian Age

January 16, 2024

The End of the Colombian Age

We are witnessing the end of an era in history spanning half a millennium; the end of Western dominance in geopolitics. For those who understand the role of resources and energy in economics, culture and politics, it comes as no surprise that this shift in global power has an awful lot to do with resource depletion in particular, and overshoot in general — not unlike the many major shifts in human history. What we are facing here is something akin to the fall of the Soviet Union, but this time on steroids, and with global consequences affecting every nation on the planet to boot.

We live in truly remarkable times. Most people born into a middle of an era expect things to continue smoothly, with the past being a reliable guide for the future. Those who have the “fortune” to born into the very last decades of an age tend to think similarly, and fail to recognize that they are witnessing something which future historians (if there will be any) will commemorate as an end to a period, and a beginning of a new era. Perhaps its no exaggeration to say, that what we see here is the collapse of modernity in two acts, the first being the fall of the West.

Let me start with Erik Micheals and his fine blog Problems, Predicaments, and Technology, where he has recently shared an interesting story about us, Rationalizing, Storytelling, and Narrative-Generating Apes. He closed with citing historian Joseph Tainter, author of the book The Collapse of Complex Societies, on how civilizations end. Incidentally, I also closed my last article with a definition and description of civilizational decline, so I think this is a good place to pick up the thread.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXIII–Overlooking Ecological Overshoot

December 2, 2023

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXIII

November 25, 2021

Overlooking Ecological Overshoot

Today’s thought was prompted by an Andrew Nikiforuk article in The Tyee and my recent rereading of William Catton Jr.’s Overshoot.

I just finished rereading William Catton’s Overshoot. One of the things I’m coming to better appreciate is Catton’s idea that the ‘Age of Exuberance’ (a time created by human expansion in almost all its forms and mostly facilitated by our extraction of fossil fuels) has so infiltrated our thinking that we tend to view the world through almost exclusively human-created institutional lenses, especially economic and political ones. We have come to think of ourselves as completely removed from nature: we sit above and beyond our natural environment with the ability to both control and predict it; primarily due to our ‘ingenuity’ and ‘technological prowess’.

This non-ecological worldview is still very much entrenched in our thinking and comes through quite clearly in mainstream narratives regarding our various predicaments. Usually it goes like this: our ingenuity and technological prowess can ‘solve’ anything thrown our way so we can continue business-as-usual; in fact, we can continue expanding our presence and increase our standard of living to infinity and beyond (apologies to Buzz Lightyear).

What are by now increasingly looking to be insoluble problems appear to have been solved in the past by two different approaches that Catton describes: the takeover method (move into a different area via migration or military expansion) or the drawdown method (depend upon non-renewable and finite resources that have been laid down millennia ago). On a finite planet, there are limits to both of these approaches.

But because of our tendency towards cornucopian thinking, most analyses overlook the idea of resource depletion or overloaded sinks that can help to cleanse our waste products that accompany growth on a finite planet. It’s all about economics, politics, technology, etc..

Our traditional ‘solutions’, however, have probably surpassed any sustainable limits and instead of being able to rely upon our ‘savings’ we have to shift towards relying exclusively upon our ‘income’ which, unfortunately, doesn’t come close to being able to sustain so many of us. To better appreciate the increasing need to do this we also need to shift our interpretive paradigm towards one that puts us back within and an intricate part of ecological systems. Ecological considerations, especially that we’ve overshot our natural carrying capacity, are missing in action from most people’s thinking.

The first thing one must do when found in a hole you want to extricate yourself from is to stop digging. Until and unless we can both individually and as a collective stop pursuing the infinite growth chalice, we travel further and further into the black hole that is ecological overshoot with an eventual rebalancing (i.e., collapse) that we cannot control nor mitigate. Our ingenuity can’t do it. Our technology can’t do it (in fact, there’s a good argument to be made that pursuing technological ‘solutions’ actually exacerbates our overshoot).

It is increasingly likely that a ‘solution’ at this point is completely out of our grasp. We’ve pursued business-as-usual despite repeated warnings because we’ve viewed and interpreted our predicament through the wrong paradigm and put ourselves in a corner. It is likely that one’s energies/efforts may be best focused going forward upon local community resilience and self-sufficiency. Relocalising as much as possible but especially procurement of potable water, appropriate shelter needs (for regional climate), and food should be a priority. Continuing to expand and depend upon diminishing resources that come to us via complex, fragile, and centralised supply chains is a sure recipe for mass disaster.

Why Civilization Would Collapse Even Without Climate Change

November 16, 2023

Why Civilization Would Collapse Even Without Climate Change

Even if there were no climate change, civilization would still collapse in the next few decades. Here’s why.

I want to start by emphasizing that I have nothing but love and respect for the millions of climate activists in the world, many of whom work tirelessly to end fossil fuels, even to the point of getting arrested. Organizations like Greenpeace, Extinction Rebellion, Fridays for Future, and countless others have done incredibly important work and deserve our thanks.

However, I’ve noticed that average, everyday climate activists often don’t see the big picture. They are laser-focused on climate change and believe that if we just stop burning fossil fuels and start using green energy, we can save the planet and our civilization.

The truth is that even if there were no climate change, our civilization would still be doomed. And the more time we waste trying to save it, the more damage we’ll do to the biosphere. It’s time to give up on the idea of saving modern, high-tech civilization and instead focus on saving as much of the natural world as possible.

For those who still believe we can continue with business-as-usual using green energy instead of fossil fuel energy, this article will be a wakeup call, and it could be very upsetting. I don’t want to upset people, but it’s important that we face reality so we can make better choices as we move forward.

Okay, take a deep breath, and let’s dive in…

Exponential Growth

Quote by Albert Bartlett on Exponential Function

Before I explain the specific reasons why civilization is doomed no matter what we do, I think it would be worthwhile to review the concept of exponential growth. Most people think they understand it, and they might even give an accurate definition, but they’re not truly grasping the implications of exponential growth in a finite world.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Road to Ruin — Part 3

October 17, 2022

The Road to Ruin — Part 3

False solutions — and a way out

Our leadership class displays an extraordinary amount of stupidity and ignorance when it comes to solutions regarding the dire energy crisis we face in Europe — and soon around the world. What are the pitfalls caused by this lack of imagination and the false beliefs surrounding topic of energy security? And more importantly, what could be done differently?

In the first two instalments of this series we have seen how the lifecycle of civilizations affected Europe and the entire West in general. Building a society on the belief of infinite growth was never a good idea and has always ended up with the same predictable results. In Part 2 we have reviewed the false assumptions behind our modern economic belief system, and saw how energy is the basis of all economic activity — not money.

Based on this understanding we can now take a hard look at the “solutions” proposed by our political class and economic experts all around the world. The one thing which could actually help them and their societies is rarely discussed though, and almost never dared to be imagined — but let’s not just get ahead of ourselves.

Drill, Baby, Drill!

My “favorite”. We need more oil, so out with those pesky regulations together with nit-picky officials and let’s get down to business! Frack the gas from underneath Europe, lay pipelines all across America, give drilling leases to everyone who has a desire to put holes into the ground — and all will be fine.

There is a tiny winey problem here — besides releasing megatons of carbon into the atmosphere in the process. We’ve run out of everything. Already in April. Steel pipes. Pumps. Sand. Water. You name it..

…click on the above link to read the rest…

No one will win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

March 29, 2022

No one will win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Most people have a preconceived notion that there will be a clear winner and loser from any war. In their view, the world economy will go on, much as before, after the war is “won” by one side or the other. In my view, we are basically dealing with a no-win situation. No matter what the outcome, the world economy will be worse off after the fighting stops.

The problem the world economy is up against is the depletion of many kinds of resources simultaneously. This depletion is made worse by rising population, meaning that the resources available need to provide an adequate living for an increasing number of world inhabitants. Because of depletion, the world economy is reaching a point where it can no longer grow in the way it has in the past. Inflation, food shortages and rolling blackouts are likely to become increasing problems in many parts of the world. Eventually, the population is likely to fall.

We are living in a world that is beginning to behave like the players scrambling for seats in a game of musical chairs. In each round of a musical chairs game, one chair is removed from the circle. The players in the game must walk around the outside of the circle. When the music stops, all the players scramble for the remaining chairs. Someone gets left out.

Figure 1. Circle of chairs arranged for a game of musical chairs. Source

In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues.

[1] In a world with inadequate resources relative to population, conflicts are likely to become increasingly common.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fuel Poverty, the Cost of Living Crisis, and Climate Change: A Data Blog

February 9, 2022

Fuel Poverty, the Cost of Living Crisis, and Climate Change: A Data Blog

Finding solutions to immediate problems and our future needs requires some difficult decisions, and if not thought-out, short-term thinking might create contradictory responses.

Though often depoliticised by compartmentalising different problems, across society decisions on energy and the environment are innately tied to lifestyle and consumption. In looking at how we adapt to energy crises, or climate change, we have to focus on what relatively creates the greatest impact – nationally and globally.

There’s a big fuss at the moment about a ‘cost of living crisis’¹, and with it the expanding spectre of fuel poverty². It’s not possible to talk about either without connecting to energy and climate change. More importantly, this debate has traditionally ignored the ‘injustice’ behind the thoroughly unequal levels of consumption in Britain, and the world, and the deep connections this that has to both poverty and climate change.

Champagne, anyone?

There’s a graph I love to throw at people – called the ’Champagne Glass Graph’. It was first outlined in the United Nation’s Human Development Report³ in 1992. That work was updated in 2015 by Oxfam, as part of their ‘Extreme Carbon Inequality’⁴ report.

The United Nations, because it is made-up of nation states, is fixated by the ‘nation state’. But if you get rid of national boundaries, and just look at the lifestyle consumption of individuals, a clear trend emerges: Half of the carbon dioxide emissions are caused by just ten percent of the global population; and the bottom fifty percent of the global population only emit ten percent of the emissions.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis is Due to Depletion?

November 24, 2021

How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis is Due to Depletion?

How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis Is Due to Depletion?

November 3, 2021

How Much of the Worsening Energy Crisis Is Due to Depletion?

If society attempts to maintain current levels of energy services throughout the transition, the result will be a spike in both energy usage and carbon emissions.

Coal and natural gas spot prices have recently soared to record levels internationally, while oil is trading at over $80 a barrel—the highest price in seven years. Newspaper columnists are asking whether people in Europe and Asia who can’t afford high fuel and electricity prices might freeze this winter. High natural gas prices are causing fertilizer prices to spike, which will inevitably raise costs to farmers, with eventual catastrophic impact on people who already have trouble paying for food.

The real energy transition will almost certainly be a shift from using a lot to using a lot less.

Political commentators are naturally searching for culprits (or scapegoats). For those on the business-friendly political right, the usual target is green energy policies that discourage fossil fuel investment. For those on the left, the culprit is insufficient investment in renewable energy.

But there’s another explanation for the high prices: depletion. I’m not suggesting we’re about to completely run out of coal, oil, or gas; there’s no immediate danger of that. However, the energy industry has historically targeted the highest-quality and easiest-accessed of these resources, which means that what’s left, in most cases, are fuels that will be costlier to extract and process—and also more polluting. The proximate causes of current price spikes may be transient market conditions (the see-sawing pandemic, Britain’s decision to leave the European Internal Energy Market, Russia’s reluctance to provide more gas to European buyers until a new pipeline is given final approval, and China’s choice to reduce coal imports from Australia). But behind the energy headlines is persistent, accelerating depletion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Climate Change and Resource Depletion. Which Way to Ruin is Faster?

July 5, 2021

Climate Change and Resource Depletion. Which Way to Ruin is Faster?

What could bring down the industrial civilization? Would it be global warming (fire) or resource depletion (ice)? At present, it may well be that depletion is hitting us faster. But, in the long run, global warming may hit us much harder. Maybe the fall of our civilization will be Fire AND ice.

The years after World War 2 saw perhaps the fastest expansion and the greatest prosperity in history for humankind. Yet, it was becoming clear that it was exactly this burst of prosperity and expansion that was creating the conditions for its own collapse. How long could humankind continue growing an economy based on limited natural resources? How long could the human population keep increasing?

The discussion soon split into two main lines: one focused on depletion, the other on pollution. Over the years, the “depletionists” concentrated on fossil fuels, the main source of energy that keeps civilization moving. Initially, the disappearance of fossil fuels was seen simply as a necessary step in the progression toward nuclear energy. But the waning of the nuclear idea generated the idea that the lack of fossil energy would eventually bring down civilization. The collapse was often seen as the result of “peak oil,” the point in time when oil production couldn’t be increased anymore. It was estimated to occur at some moment during the first 2-3 decades of the 21st century.

On the other side, the focus was initially on pollutants such as smog, heavy metals, carcinogenic substances, and others. Pollution was generally seen as a solvable problem and, indeed, good progress was done in abating it in many fields. But the emerging idea of global warming soon started to be seen by “climatists” as an existential threat to humankind, or even to the whole planetary ecosystem…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Four Scenarios for a Catastrophic Future: Part III (final)

June 21, 2021

Four Scenarios for a Catastrophic Future: Part III (final)

This is the third and final part of Rutilius Namatianus’ (RN) reassessment of some scenarios for the future originally proposed by David Holmgren. RN takes a position that goes against the standard interpretation that sees our problems originating mainly by climate change. Instead, RN believes that climate change didn’t do much damage to humankind, so far, and so it will remain a minor component of humankind’s trajectory, at least for the coming years, perhaps a couple of decades. What we are seeing, instead, is the crunch created by the gradually reduced availability of natural resources, coupled with increasing population and consumption levels. As a result, the services and the goods previously granted to nearly all social layers are becoming impossible to maintain and that is eroding the basic pact that keeps society together. Consistently, the Elites are developing a totalitarian grip on all sectors of society in such a way to funnel all the remaining resources for themselves and leave nothing to the commoners. And that’s where we stand now. Of course, there is much that is debatable in RN’s theses, but there is no doubt that he is identifying some real elements of what’s happening nowadays. (UB)

2021 – Future Scenarios Revisited

In Part 1 and Part 2, I re-examined Holmgren’s Future Scenarios ten years after they had been proposed, and where we had moved since then in the scenario state space. I also considered a new state-space that could be more pertinent to a question that must be high on many peoples’ priorities these days: we observe two trends, racing against each other: the trend of centralized power structures (however we call it, we never did get a single really good name for the great steamroller!) to conquer every last thing, consolidate power over every last place, the trend toward ever-increasing power, the logical continuation of the ‘stupid’ strategies we might say- to refer to a recent post- against the counter-trend of depletion, environmental degradation, exhaustion of resources, diminishing returns on complexity, and generally the whole picture we sum up with the word ‘collapse’…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Four Scenarios for the Future (part one)

June 17, 2021

Four Scenarios for the Future (part one)

Ten years ago, David Holmgren brought out a thesis he titled ‘future scenarios,’ wherein he laid out some reasoning for two main axes along which the next few decades could be characterized and developed four main scenarios which corresponded to the four general quadrants laid out by his axes of primary variables.

His two major variables were the rate and severity of climate change, and the rate of oil/energy/resource depletion. See his paper here, https://www.futurescenarios.org/ where he laid down the following scenarios:

Slow/benign climate change, slow resource depletion: ‘green tech.’ A scenario in which conditions remain stable enough and resources abundant enough to develop an organized and controlled descent to lower resource consumption and ultimately lower complexity, without falling into chaos. This is the solar power, windfarms, electric cars and tech future type of story that is being pushed hard by the propaganda machine of the ‘establishment’ during the past few years.

Fast/harmful climate change, slow resource depletion: ‘brown tech.’ A scenario in which the situation gets more chaotic, more rapidly, where economic imbalances and breakdowns prevent a ‘green’ transition, and where instead the focus remains on extending the service life of existing energy sources in a top-down forced reduction in consumption. This scenario is characterized by pragmatic totalitarianism, and gratuitous violence to control resources. If it is possible to consolidate power quickly, current societal structures can even hang on for some decades until they run out of the stores of high-quality energy embedded in leftover technology it can’t reproduce. Then, society breaks down into a more decentralized post-tech picture.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Tunnel Vision Problem. How Mineral Depletion Became Completely Incomprehensible to the Public and Decision Makers Alike

March 18, 2021

The Tunnel Vision Problem. How Mineral Depletion Became Completely Incomprehensible to the Public and Decision Makers Alike

Image source

A few days ago, I sent a comment to a blog where the author had cited the “abiotic oil” hypothesis by Thomas Gold. He had read Gold’s book “The Deep, Hot Biosphere” and, not being an expert in the matter, had believed that Gold’s ideas were correct and that the author had been unjustly ignored by the scientific community and by the oil industry.

In my comment, I briefly discussed the matter and cited an article that I had written together with other authors where we discussed Gold’s ideas, showing that they are incompatible with what we know about the geosphere and the processes of formation of fossil hydrocarbons.

Some of the commenters seemed to be completely clueless about the matter, and that was already worrisome. But the surprising thing was that one of the answers I received was that I should avoid discussing political issues such as “peak oil” in a scientific discussion.

So, after 20 years of scientific studies on the concept of oil depletion — in itself a necessary consequence of the fact that oil resources are finite — the idea of “peak oil” has been transmogrified into a political slogan that has no place in a serious discussion.

And that’s not just the case of peak oil. Try to mention “mineral depletion” in any discussion about the current economic situation, and you’ll be treated like a slightly feebleminded person who is completely out of touch with reality. Our problems, right now, are completely different as everyone sane in his/her mind knows.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai: Excerpt read by author, Steve Bull

February 24, 2021

Olduvai: Excerpt read by author, Steve Bull

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The Bulletin: February 13-19, 2025

Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh XXXIII

Champagne, anyone?

2021 – Future Scenarios Revisited

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