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OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

OPEC August 2019 Oil Production

The OPEC charts below were produced from data published in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

The OPEC 14 was up 136,000 barrels per day in August.
Nothing happening in Algeriaexcept a slow decline.
Ditto for Angola.

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OPEC September Production Data

OPEC September Production Data

The below charts were created with data from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and the data through September 2018.

OPEC crude only was up 132,000 barrels per day in September to 32,761,000 bpd. that is still 650,000 barrels per day below their all time high in October of 2016.

August production was revised up by 63,000 bpd so production was actually up 195,000 bpd from what was reported last month.

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OPEC August Production Data

OPEC August Production Data

Data for the OPEC charts below are from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All OPEC data are through August 2018 and in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC 15 crude only production was up 278,000 barrels per day in August to 32,565,000 bpd. Most of that increase was Libya, up 256,000 bpd.

July OPEC production was revised down 38,000 barrels per day.

Sanctions are beginning to have an affect on Iranian production.

Iraq reached a new high in August, but just barely. They had 4,649,000 bpd. Their previous high was 4,642,000 bpd in December 2016.

Libya was the big gainer in August, up 256,000 bpd to 926,000 bpd. They are still fighting rebels however. They will likely be down slightly in September.

I think Saudi Arabia will hold pretty close to this level for awhile now.

Venezuela’s decline continues. They are now over 1,100,000 barrels per day from their average in 2015.

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OPEC January Oil Production Data

OPEC January Oil Production Data

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out production data for January 2018. All data, unless otherwise noted, is through January 2018 and is in thousand barrels per day.

OPEC crude only production has held steady for three months. However, this chart masks the fact that November production was revised downward by 45,000 barrels per day and December production was revised downward by 107,000 barrels per day. January production was 76,000 barrels per day below last years 12 month average of 32,378,000 barrels per day and 247,000 barrels per day lower than OPEC’s 2016 12 month average of 32,549,000 barrels per day.

OPEC oil production was down just 8,100 barrels per day in January. November production was revised down 45,000 bpd and December production was revised down by 107,000 bpd. The largest revisions were for Venezuela. Their production was revised down 28,000 bpd in November and 98,000 bpd in December.

Algeria, like at least 8 other OPEC countries, is in continuous decline.

Angola peaked in 2008 at a 12 month average of 1,870,000 barrels per day are currently about a quarter of a million barrels per day below that number.

Ecuador’s crude oil production increased steadily for four and one-half years, from mid-2010 to January of 2015 and has been on a bumpy decline for the last three year

Equatorial Guinea’s chart speaks for itself. I really don’t know why they joined OPEC. Their production is clearly in decline but is not enough to make much difference either way.

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OPEC Oil Production Rose In December Despite Plunge In Venezuela Output

In its latest monthly report, OPEC announced that according to secondary sources, December oil production by the cartel rose by 42.4kbpd from November to 32.416mmbpd, if 144kbpd below October’s 32.56mmbpd level, and just below the mandated production ceiling of 32.5mmbpd.

While the biggest producer Saudi Arabia saw its output dip by 11kbpd to 9.918mmbpd, it was Venezuela’s production that tumbled by nearly 5%, or 82.2kbpd, to 1.745mmbpd, and is rapidly becoming the biggest swing factor in rising oil prices. The decline was offset by a jump in Nigerian oil production, which pumped 75.7kbpd more in December, to 1.861mmbpd. Algeria, Angola, Iran and Kuwait also saw their output increase in December.

OPEC also revised its 2017 global oil demand growth higher, now at 1.57mmbpd, averaging some 96.99mmbpd in 2017. For 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated at 1.53mmbpd, or some 98.51mmbpd.

Meanwhile, world oil supply in December increased by 0.40 mb/d m-o-m, to average 97.49 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.83 mb/d y-o-y. Preliminary non-OPEC oil supply, including OPEC NGLs, was up by 0.35 mb/d m-o-m in December to average 65.07 mb/d. For 2017, non-OPEC supply is estimated to grow by 0.77 mb/d y-o-y to average 57.79 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.04 mb/d from last month’s report, following a downward revision in OECD and DCs by 28 tb/d and 35 tb/d, respectively, while the oil supply forecast for the FSU was revised up by 32 tb/d.

For 2018, y-o-y growth of 1.15 mb/d is forecast, following an upward revision for production in the US, Canada, Mexico and the UK and downward revisions in Norway and Argentina, and showing total supply expected at 58.94 mb/d. In December 2017, OPEC crude oil production increased by 42 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.42 mb/d. Separately, non-OPEC oil supply growth – mostly shale – in 2017 was revised fractionally lower to 0.77mmbpd.

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OPEC November Oil Production

OPEC November Oil Production

The OPEC data below was taken from the December OPEC Monthly Oil Maret Report. All data is through November 2017 unless otherwise noted.

OPEC crude oil production declined by 133,500 barrels per day in November.

Algeria was up slightly in November after that huge decline in October.

Angola was the biggest loser in November, down 108,700 barrels per day.

Ecuador, though holding its own for the last year, appears to be in slow decline.

I have managed to cobble together an estimate of Equatorial Guinea’s historical C+C production. I had the EIA’s production numbers through June 2013. I subtracted 10% for “other liquids”, then merged that with the OPEC MOMR data that started in 2016. However, Equatorial Guinea’s production is not enough to make much difference.

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JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July

The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports.

The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July.

But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July, continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices.

For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do not report to JODI. For them I use the EIA data and carry forward the same data that the EIA reported, (April). For the USA, since the JODI data is obviously wrong for July, I simply carried forward the June data which also came directly from the EIA. And for OPEC I use the OPEC MOMR’s “secondary sources”. JODI also uses the MOMR for their data but uses the “direct communication” data instead of the secondary sources data.

The data below is through July 2015 and is in thousand barrels per day.

JODI World C+C

In July we remained at or near the world’s all time peak at 75,631,000 barrels per day, down just 15,000 bpd from June.


JODI Non-OPEC stood at 44,100,000 bpd in July, down 567,000 bpd from the peak in December.



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OPEC August Production Flat

OPEC August Production Flat

All charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point August 2015.


Not much has happened since June, OPEC 12 production was up 12,000 bpd in August that is well within the margin of error.

Secondary Sources

All my charts are taken from what OPEC calls “secondary sources” OPEC nations, especially Iran and Venezuela, often lie about their production. But from the chart above you can see exactly who was up and who was down in August, and by how much.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi is holding steady, producing 10,362,000 barrels per day in August. However Saudi is up 700,000 bpd since February.


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OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty

OPEC Production Figures – Winners And Losers Aplenty

The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all the OPEC crude only production numbers for January 2015. There were very little revisions in the December numbers this month.


Total OPEC production of crude only was down 53,000 barrels per day in January to 30,153,000 barrels per day of crude only.


Algerian production has leveled out in the last year and a half but down slightly the last couple of months. January production slipped 13,000 bpd to 1,130,000 bpd.


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