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Any central bank head that passes through an eight-year term without once raising rates has some explaining to do. To leave monetary policy extremely loose for such an extended period comes with major consequences (can we at least agree on that?). So, what went wrong? How did policy measures not operate as expected? With the benefit of hindsight, what could have been done differently?

What will be Draghi’s legacy? How will history view his stewardship over eurozone monetary policy? The years sure pass by. I still ponder how history will judge Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. At this point, with securities prices (equities and bonds) basically at all-time highs, contemporary monetary policy – and its major architects – are held in high regard. I don’t expect this to remain the case following the next crisis.

A reporter question from Draghi’s Thursday press conference: “A recent survey by the Bank of America reveals that impotence and ineffectiveness of central banks, including the ECB, are the second risk perceived by investors. My question is: do you think that these investor concerns are justified? In other words, is there a risk of financial bubbles?”

Mario Draghi: “…You asked whether the expansionary monetary policies of central banks is the second-largest risk. I can answer for the eurozone; in the eurozone, and it’s a question we ask ourselves every day, many times a day, and I’m saying this because we monitor market developments very closely. We see some segments of financial markets where valuations are overstretched. One case is real estate, for example, and especially prime commercial real estate. Now, the causes of these overstretched valuations often don’t lead directly to our monetary policies. For prime commercial real estate, it’s the action of international investors…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What the Hell is the ECB Doing?

October 4, 2019

What the Hell is the ECB Doing?

Danielle DiMartino poses an interesting question regarding the ECB. I have a set of answers.

What is the ECB Doing?

I started thinking about that question weeks ago.

I have a set of answers and even started writing this post before DiMartino brought it to the forefront.

There are only two answers. One of them is very unsettling.

Ignorance
On Purpose

Occam’s Razor

Occam’s razor is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exists two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the one that requires the least amount of assumptions is usually correct. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation.

Occam’s Razor typically eliminates most conspiracy theories. It’s not that conspiracies don’t happen, but that simpler solutions are far more likely.

My corollary to the theory is very easy to understand: If stupidity is one of the possible answers, it is the most likely answer.

I am a normally a big fan of Occam’s Razor.

But this is so bizarre that I have my doubts.

Importantly, this may not be a conspiracy at all. Mario Draghi can easily be acting alone.

My Lead Question

How stupid can things get before one starts believing something else is in play?

I had already been thinking about that question when not only did ECB president Mario Draghi further push interest rates into negative territory but he also said it was a good idea for the ECB to think about MMT.

Shocking ECB Dissent

Dissent at the Fed happens all the time. It is rare at the ECB. The ECB builds a consensus and it is typically unanimous.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Turkey Exposes Central Bank Incompetence

September 15, 2019

Turkey Exposes Central Bank Incompetence

Last year I asked whether Turkey would be “City Zero in Global Contagion.” That question was based on the crisis unfolding in the Turkish lira which materially threatened a number of major European banks, especially those in Italy.

This week highlighted something really interesting for me that, I think, sets in motion a similar thesis about Turkey but for much different reasons. The sovereign debt crisis will come about purely because of a failure of confidence in institutions.

Competence is the key to staying at the top of human dominance hierarchies, not force. Those built on competence tend to last and those built on force are, at best, meta-stable for a specific period of time.

The difference between what’s happening in Turkey with President Erdogan taking control of the Turkish central bank and the end of Mario Draghi’s term heading the ECB cuts to the heart of this issue of competence versus force.

The Draghi Put-on

Draghi has projected this aura of the ever-in-control competent manager of Europe’s finances while steadfastly holding to policy ideas which have done nothing but destroy capital formation within the Eurozone.

His last statement and policy decision this week are emblematic of his inflexibility both intellectually and politically. And it’s clear that he’s trapped at whatever negative-bound he’s got in his head, handing off a Europe on the verge of collapse to his sister-in-tyranny, Christine Lagarde.

Draghi just fired his “Cheap Money Bazooka” on his way out the door to kick the can down the road another few months.
He’s setting the stage for the full-blown monetization and collapse of the European banking system under his successor, former IMF chief Christine Lagarde. What hasn’t worked for Europe for the past 11 years was just introduced again as the only way to save the situation.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Draghi Goes All Out: ECB Cuts Rates, Restarts Open-Ended QE, Changes Forward Guidance, Eases TLTRO, Introduces Tiering

September 12, 2019

Draghi Goes All Out: ECB Cuts Rates, Restarts Open-Ended QE, Changes Forward Guidance, Eases TLTRO, Introduces Tiering

With the market worried that Mario Draghi could surprise hawkishly in his parting announcement…

… that is how the market initially interpreted today’s ECB press release, which cut already negative deposit rates for the first time since 2016 to stimulate the sagging European economy, but by a smaller than expected 10bps to -0.50% while restarting QE but by “only” €20 billion, less than the €30 billion baseline.

However, there was more than enough offsetting dovish bells and whistles, because while the restarted QE (or the Asset Purchase Program) was smaller than expected, it will be open-ended, and the ECB will run it “for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.” Of course, the question here is how long can a safe-asset constrained Europe run an “open-ended” QE, and the answer is it depends on what the issuer limit by nation is, with Frederik Ducrozet observing that “at €20bn/month, assuming up to €5bn in corporate bonds, QE can run for ~9 months under current limits… and for more than 7 years if limits are raised to 50%!” So look for more information on that angle.

· 43m

OPEN-ENDED QE. Let that sink in. Much more important than the monthly pace of asset purchases, i.e. even better than we hoped.

At €20bn/month, assuming up to €5bn in corporate bonds, QE can run for ~9 months under current limits… and for more than 7 years if limits are raised to 50%!
We might get details about issuer limits in the separate press releases and/or the press conference.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why The Next ECB Stimulus Plan May Fail

August 26, 2019

Why The Next ECB Stimulus Plan May Fail

In June 2014 I wrote an article called Draghi’s Plan does not fix Europe. In that article, I explained that the structural challenges of the eurozone -high government spending, excessive tax wedge, lack of technology leadership and demographics- were not going to be solved by a round of quantitative easing.

Now, the evidence of the European Union leads the ECB to hint at another stimulus plan. Gone is the triumphalism displayed by of the European Commission on August 2017 (read). The “strong recovery” they credited to the “decisive action of the European Union” has all but disappeared.

The slowdown in the eurozone is not similar to other economies. The ECB has slashed growth estimates consistently and currently expects a level of growth that is half of what they had projected eighteen months ago.

It is fascinating because many analysts tend to discuss the European slowdown as if the stimulus had been abandoned. Far from it. Let us remember that the European Central Bank repurchases all debt maturities in its balance sheet and that it has launched a new liquidity injection (TLTRO) in March this year.

That is why it is appropriate to discuss the severity of the Eurozone slowdown in the context of the chain of fiscal and monetary stimuli that have been implemented. To understand the serious mistake of constantly stumbling on the same stone, we need to understand the size of the fiscal and monetary programs and their underwhelming results.

2008: “Economic Recovery Plan”, 200 billion euros in public spending, infrastructure and “strategic sectors” to create “millions of jobs”.
2014 “Investment Plan for Europe”, of which more than 424 billion euro have been mobilized and 77 billion approved. It was going to “increase the GDP of the European Union by 1.3% until 2020″. The GDP of the European Union has been revised down to half of the growth estimated by the ECB nearly two years ago.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Signs of recession are hitting Europe. Is its new Central Bank president up for the challenge?

August 3, 2019

Signs of recession are hitting Europe. Is its new Central Bank president up for the challenge?

If new institutional reform is to come to the Eurozone, it will entail a major paradigmatic shift

We now know that there will be a changing of the guard at the European Central Bank (ECB) in October. The current head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, will succeed current ECB President Mario Draghi at that time.

A known quantity among the political and investor class of Europe, Lagarde seems like a safe choice: she is a lawyer by training, not an economist. Hence, she is unlikely to usher in any dramatic changes, in contrast to current European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who significantly expanded the ECB’s remit in the aftermath of his pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency union (Draghi did this by underwriting the solvency of the Eurozone member states through substantially expanded sovereign bond-buying operations). Instead, Lagarde will likely stick to her brief, as any good lawyer does. There’s no doubt that her years of operating as head of the IMF will also reinforce her inclination not to disrupt the prevailing austerity-based ECB ideology.

Unfortunately, the Eurozone needs something more now, especially given the increasingly frail state of the European economies. The Eurozone still doesn’t have a treasury of its own, and there’s no comprehensively insured banking union. Those limitations are likely to become far more glaring in any larger kind of recession, especially if accompanied by a banking crisis. That is why the mooted candidacy of Jens Weidmann may have been the riskier bet for the top job at the ECB, but ultimately a choice with more political upside. An old-line German central banker might have been able to lay the groundwork for the requisite paradigmatic shift more successfully than a French lawyer, especially now that Germany itself is in the eye of the mounting economic storm.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Yellow Light” – Is The Credit Market Finally Reversing

July 26, 2019

“Yellow Light” – Is The Credit Market Finally Reversing

Keep digging

Yesterday, the European Central Bank held a stand-pat meeting, keeping the benchmark deposit rate at negative 40 basis points.

However, ECB president Mario Draghi indicated that rate cuts and a resumption of asset purchases are on tap for September. In the accompanying presser, the outgoing ECB chief captured the mood of central bank-levitated markets, stating that: “it’s difficult to be too gloomy today,” while the outlook “is getting worse and worse.” The German 10-year yield traded as low as negative 42 basis points, briefly crossing below the 40 basis point deposit rate.

While sovereign debt holders continue to rack up mark-to-market gains, not everyone is enamored with the prospect of still-more negative interest rates.

“We already have a devastating interest rate situation today, the end of which is unforeseeable,” Peter Schneider, who represents banks in the south-eastern German state of Baden-Württemburg, told Bloomberg yesterday.
“If the ECB aggravates this course, that would hit not only the entire financial sector hard, but especially savers.”

Meanwhile, policymakers down under attempt to quantify the practical limits of negative policy rates. In a paper written to New Zealand finance minister Grant Robertson in January and recently released to the public, staffers in the Treasury Department concluded:

“The Reserve Bank expect rates could only fall at most 35 basis points below zero before risking the hoarding of physical cash.”

Today, the global stock of negative-yielding debt rose to $13.74 trillion, a new record.

Yellow light

As we close out month 121 of the longest economic expansion on record, let’s take a look at the state of U.S. corporate credit. Year to date, investment-grade bonds have generated a whopping 12.3% total return, while high-yield has returned 10.6%. Leveraged loans have lagged far behind, with the LSTA Index gaining just 3.3% so far this year.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Lagarde, the ECB and the next crisis

July 9, 2019

Lagarde, the ECB and the next crisis

The appointment of Christine Lagarde as president of the ECB has been greeted with euphoria by financial markets. That reaction in itself should be a warning signal. When risky assets soar in the middle of a huge bubble due to a central bank appointment, the supervising entity should be concerned.Lagarde is a lawyer, not an economist, and a great professional, but the market probably interprets correctly is that the European Central Bank will become even more dovish. Lagarde, for example, is a strong advocate of negative rates.

Lagarde and Vice President De Guindos have warned of the need to carry out measures to avoid a possible financial crisis, proposing different mechanisms to mitigate the shocks created by excess risk. Both are right, but that search for mechanisms to work as shock buffers runs the risk of being sterile when it is the monetary policy that encourages excess. When the central bank solves a financial crisis by absorbing the excess risk that the market once took it does not reduce it, it only disguises it.

Supervisors ignore the effect of risk accumulation because they perceive it as necessary collateral damage to the recovery. Risk accumulates precisely because it is encouraged.

Draghi said that monetary policy is not the correct instrument to deal with financial imbalances and macroprudential tools should be used. However, it is the monetary policy which is causing those imbalances when an extraordinary, conditional and limited measure becomes an eternal and unconditional one.

When monetary policy disguises and encourages risk, macroprudential measures are simply ineffective. There is no macroprudential measure that mitigates the risk created by negative rates and almost three trillion of asset purchases.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Global Negative Yielding Debt Hits Record $12.3 Trillion

June 20, 2019

Global Negative Yielding Debt Hits Record $12.3 Trillion

Somewhere, SocGen’s permabearish strategist Albert Edwards is dancing a jig, as every day that passes bring us every closer to his trademark “Ice Age.”

One week after the universe of negative yielding debt regained its prior high of $11.7 trillion, overnight – thanks to the dovish capitulations by both the ECB and Fed – the notional value of global sovereign debt with a minus yield sign jumped to $12.3 trillion, a new all time high.Source: Bloomberg

The collapse in yields started on Tuesday morning when Mario Draghi said that the central bank might also trim rates and resume its bond-buying should inflation continue to languish well below its 2% target (recently European 5Y5Y forwards hit an all time low but have since rebounded following Draghi’s comments).

The dovish comments sent another jolt through fixed income markets and pushed another $714bn worth of bonds into sub-zero yield territory on Tuesday. The market value of bonds trading at negative yields — once thought to be economic lunacy — to a fresh record of $12.3TN, according to Bloomberg surpassing the last peak in 2016. The average yield of the global bond market is now just 1.76 per cent, down from 2.51 per cent in November last year.

Meanwhile, in another startling observation, Bank of America recently wrote that “highly-anticipated events in recent years (e.g. Shanghai G20, Brexit, Trump) have typically coincided with big unwinds of crowded positions; and “Japanification” rate theme max consensus.” As a result, the collapse in global inflation breakeven levels have taken global govt bond yields (ex. UST) to a new all-time low of 1.2%.

While the majority of core European and Japanese government bonds have been trading with negative yields since 2016, on Tuesday the Austrian, French and Swedish 10-year yields all slumped below zero for the first time. The 10Y German Bund yield stands at -0.32, an all time record low.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 19th 2019

June 19, 2019

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 19th 2019

“You cannot be serious…”

Check out the new Edition of Property Chronicle: https://vimeo.com/342064460

Oh dear.. Now I am worried. The only positive I can discern is its International Martini Day – Dukes, here we come..

It was a massive Wowser WTF moment on stocks! Donald Trump says he’s having a meeting with Xi and the stock market goes into the stratosphere! Then XI confirms, and its joy unlimited across markets. New records beckon.… Joy unconfined.. What can possibly go wrong? Softbank head Son telling investors it could be worth $1.8 trillion in a few years? (Note to self – sell stocks.)

On the other side of the pond, it’s a Wow on Bunds…. Spectacular gains y’day taking the 10-year Bund rate to -0.33% after Mario Draghi talked about immediately lower rates, reopening QE and using all the unused A380s Superjumbos to drop wads of money across Yoorp. Spain bond buyers now get a gnat’s crotchet of positive yields, while Italy is just over 2%! Trump immediately tweets branding Draghi an unfair currency manipulator. Draghi looks at the miserable German ZEW and wonders why Donald doesn’t get on an do his own job… (Good to know Trump is on the ball and watching everything… everything.. (Crashing Minor Chords! Note to self – buy Treasuries and Gold).

Meanwhile, the Tories have found something to rally around… kicking Rory Stewart (which, thinking about it, has to be worth trying)… Last night’s televised debate between the candidates was truly terrible. The only positives I could garner was Boris has been stripped of his personality, and Sajid Javid came across measured and even polite. I’d vote for him, but we will never get the chance because most of us are too sensible, young, clever, to be members of the party… Meanwhile, Corbyn looks likely to accept Labour policy will pivot towards a second referendum….

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China & Buying Gold – Why?

April 17, 2019

China & Buying Gold – Why?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I believe you said at the WEC in 2017 that central banks will diversify and increase their gold reserves going into the currency crisis coming in 2021. China has continued to increase its gold reserves. You would please update on that development.

Thank you

ANSWER: Central banks are in a very difficult position. The ECB has really put the entire world at risk. Draghi is now realizing that negative interest rates have seriously harmed the European economy and led to a major growing liquidity crisis in European banking. The euro is regarded as a time bomb for it is neither a national currency nor a stable unit of account. The failure to have consolidated the debts from the outset has simply left the euro vulnerable to separatist movements and sheer chaos.

This is what has been behind the strength in the dollar. Central banks outside Europe have been caught in this dollar vortex. They have been selling dollars and buying gold in an effort to stem the advance of the dollar. China also has a debt problem with many provinces and companies who borrowed in dollars. Here in 2019, there is $1.2 trillion in Chinese dollar borrowings that must be rolled over. There is a rising concern that this year there could be a major threat of a dollar funding crunch. The total debt issued in US dollars outside the USA approached $12 trillion at the end of 2018. That is about 50% of the US national debt. The forex risk is huge, no less the interest rate risk on top of that. The more crises we see in Europe, the greater the pressure on the dollar to rise regardless of the Fed trying to stop capital inflows by delaying raising rates.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Super Mario Draghi’s Day of Reckoning Has Arrived

March 10, 2019

Super Mario Draghi’s Day of Reckoning Has Arrived

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” — MARIO DRAGHI JULY 26TH 2012

No quote better defines Mario Draghi’s seven-plus years as the President of the European Central Bank than that quote. Draghi has thrown literally everything at the deflationary spiral the Euro-zone is in to no avail.

What has been enough has been nothing more than a holding pattern.

And after more than six years of the market believing Draghi’s words, after all of the alphabet soup programs — ESM, LTRO, TLTRO, OMB, ZOMG, BBQSAUCE — Draghi finally made chumps out of traders yesterday.

Draghi reversed himself after December’s overly hawkish statement in grand fashion but none dare call it capitulation. For years he has patched together a flawed euro papering over cracks with enough liquidity spackle to hide the deepest cracks.

The Ponzi scheme needs to be maintained just a little while longer.

He’s not alone. In fact, all the major central banks have been working in concert since the day they broke the gold bull market back in September 2011, when the Swiss National Bank pegged the Franc to the euro which began the era of coordinated central bank policy.

And since 2013’s Taper Tantrum when then FOMC-Chair Ben Bernanke
timidly announced a future without QE the markets have consistently tore at their resolve to normalize monetary policy.

Because when you paper over reality you don’t fix the underlying problems. The losses are still there, hidden in plain sight, held at mark-to-model prices, on central bank balance sheets.

Ben retired and Janet took over. She held the fort for nearly her entire term, refusing to raise rates while Draghi sent rates negative alongside Japan’s Kuroda.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

ECB Warns Slowdown Isn’t Temporary: Draghi Announces Bold Stimulus Plan

March 8, 2019

ECB Warns Slowdown Isn’t Temporary: Draghi Announces Bold Stimulus Plan

Mario Draghi surprised even the doves with his bold new stimulus plan. It won’t help one iota.

The Wall Street Journal reports ECB Reverses Course With New Stimulus Measures.

The European Central Bank made a major policy reversal Thursday, unveiling plans for fresh measures to stimulate the eurozone’s faltering economy less than three months after phasing out a €2.6 trillion ($2.9 trillion) bond-buying program, making it the first rich-country central bank to ease policy in response to the global slowdown.
The ECB said it would hold interest rates at their current levels at least through the end of this year—months longer than previously signaled—and announced plans for a fresh batch of cheap long-term loans for banks. The first loans will be launched in September, each with a maturity of two years.
Despite the new stimulus, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the risks to the economy remain prevalent, though the likelihood of a recession is very low. Thursday’s decision was unanimous, he said at a press conference. “Given the complexity of the package, I think this is a very positive sign,” he added. The ECB also slashed is forecast for gross domestic product growth this year to 1.1% from 1.7% in December. It lowered its inflation projection to 1.2% from 1.6%, further below the ECB’s target of just under 2%.
Still, the ECB refrained from more extreme measures such as restarting its bond-buying program or cutting its deposit rate further from minus 0.4%. These options weren’t discussed, Mr. Draghi said. “In a dark room, you move with tiny steps,” he said.

Bold New Plans

Please consider ECB’s Draghi Surprised Colleagues with Bold Stimulus Plans.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi caught even dovish rate-setters off guard by pushing on Thursday for unexpectedly generous stimulus after forecasts showed a large drop in economic growth, four sources familiar with the discussion said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession

November 2, 2018

Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession

Data dependent, they claim. They aren’t. Mario Draghi at his last press conference admitted, “incoming information, [is] somewhat weaker than expected.” There is so much riding on the word “somewhat.” Because of the weasel, the head of the ECB told the assembled media policy normalization was unimpeded. He did so with a straight face.

Good. Europe’s QE experiment needs to end. Not because it succeeded, rather since there was no hope for it from the beginning. It was a giant waste, at best an enormous distortion. At most, it was a huge distraction from the real problem.

You have to hand it to the Germans. They seem quite capable of the more serious business of economics (small “e”). Where Economists (capital “E”) like Draghi play the game of somewhat data dependent, businesses in Germany refuse license to the same luxury. They are business dependent, meaning that if things really were booming they would act that way. And if something like recession looms, the Germans would know it.

And that’s exactly what they’ve said for much of this year particularly the past four or five months. The global economy, which heavily influences Germany’s, is heading for another downturn. For Europe as a whole, it’s a whole lot of trouble.

The European Union’s statistical body confirms today what German sentiment has been warning about. The European economy is already on the precipice of recession. The ZEW survey in September was as low as it was when Europe was last contracting. In Q3 2018, Eurostat reports that GDP expanded by just 0.16% over Q2. That was about one-third the rate in Q2, which was itself about three-quarters the gain in 2017.

Data dependent. Like the ZEW index, GDP growth was the lowest since Europe’s last recession.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Watch Live: The World’s Top 3 Central Bankers Discuss What’s Next

June 20, 2018

Watch Live: The World’s Top 3 Central Bankers Discuss What’s Next

Update: Powell has maintained his hawkish tone from last week’s press conference with his comments in Sintra on the labor market and monetary policy. He expressed confidence in the US economy and said “the case for continued gradual rate hikes is strong.”

According to CitiFX’s market commentary, its traders highlighted one dovish remark when Powell was speaking about the uncertainty surrounding the NAIRU: “Natural rate estimates have always been uncertain, and may be even more so now as inflation has become less responsive to the unemployment rate…as I mentioned, a tight labor market could draw more people into the labor force.”

Here are the headlines:

POWELL SAYS CASE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL RATE HIKES IS `STRONG’
POWELL: JOB MARKET TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER, SUPPORT WAGE GROWTH
FED’S POWELL REMARKS IN TEXT OF SPEECH AT ECB FORUM IN PORTUGAL
POWELL: INFLATION HAS MOVED UP CLOSE TO FED’S 2% GOAL
POWELL: U.S. ECONOMY PERFORMING VERY WELL
POWELL SAYS GRADUAL RATE-HIKE CASE `BROADLY SUPPORTED’ ON FOMC
POWELL: YET TO SEE INFLATION STAY NEAR GOAL ON SUSTAINED BASIS
POWELL: U.S. FISCAL POLICY TO ADD TO DEMAND OVER NEXT FEW YEARS

* * *

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will appear on a policy panel Wednesday that’s set to begin at 15:30 CET (that’s 10:30 am ET). They will be joined by Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The panel is the last big event of the 2018 ECB annual forum on central banking, which was held in Sintra, Portugal and featured the theme “price and wage-setting in advanced economies.”

Of course, there is likely to be disagreement among the 4 (or 3 big guys) as Kuroda remains pedal to the metal on his easing policies (despite the stealth tapering), Draghi has started to adjust to a tightening regime, and Powell is in full normalization mode.

All of which is ironic given that all three face notable demises in their recent economic data…

Watch the panel live below:

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