Just after on Friday Pentagon leaders presented Trump with numerous “military options” for a response to Iran following last week’s twin attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, Iran has again put the US on notice that any “limited attack” will assuredly lead to major war.
The briefing on “options” for responding to Iran were followed by a late Friday Pentagon announcement that it is deploying US troops to Saudi Arabia as a “first step” which could be followed by additional “kinetic” moves down the road. “As the President has made clear the United States does not seek conflict with Iran. That said we have many other military options available should they be necessary,” Defense Secretary Mark Esper said in the briefing.
Iran on Saturday responded to the move by again declaring any potential “limited” US attack on Iran would certainly lead to rapid escalation. The head of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami, said in remarks broadcast on state TV that no such limited strikes would actually remain ‘limited’.
“Be careful, a limited aggression will not remain limited. We will pursue any aggressor.”
Clearly understanding Trump’s deep reluctance to drag the United States into yet another costly Middle East quagmire, it appears the Iranians are telegraphing that if they can convince Washington that even a small, one-off strike on Iran could spark WW3, this could dissuade the US altogether from even limited, “kinetic” missions.
It’s likely the administration could be spit-balling the idea of missile strikes similar to Trump’s two instances of bombing Syrian government facilities — each confined to a single night, not more than hours long, but going no further in terms of expanding the scope of originally defined objectives.
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The UK Royal Navy has now fully initiated its planned-for escort mission to British-flagged tankers transiting the increasingly dangerous Strait of Hormuz, following Iran’s IRGC seizure and continued detention of the Stena Impero and its crew.
Britain’s Defence Ministry said in a statement Thursday that “the Royal Navy has been tasked to accompany British-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz, either individually or in groups, should sufficient notice be given of their passage.”
Among the first batch of photos showing a British warship escorting a UK-flagged vessel through the Strait of Hormuz. Image source: UK Ministry of Defence/Sky News
Citing “safety” and “reassurance” for vessels transiting the strait, the statement added, “Freedom of navigation is crucial for the global trading system and world economy, and we will do all we can to defend it.”
Sky News reported that a Royal Navy Type 23 frigate already stationed off Bahrain since April, the HMS Montrose, was the first warship to offer escort Thursday. The HMS Duncan, which is a larger ‘Type 45’ frigate, is reportedly en route to assist the Montrose.
This follows UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s Monday announcement of an initiative for a “European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo” in the Persian Gulf. The goal, he described, would be to provide safe passage for international vessels in the vital oil transit waterway, protecting them from Iranian “state piracy”.
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Iran’s ambassador in London warned on Sunday that the UK government must get its “domestic political forces” pushing for regime change under control or else the two countries will face dangerous escalation. The public statement came two days after the British-flagged Stena Impero was boarded and captured by IRGC commandos, and over two weeks after the tanker Grace 1 was seized by UK Royal Marines off Gibraltar.
Iranian Ambassador Hamid Baeidinejad urged via his personal Twitter account that continued pressure on Iran would be “unwise” given that Tehran stands “firm and ready for different scenarios”.
The ambassador said the UK government must“contain those domestic political forces who want to escalate existing tension between Iran and the UK well beyond the issue of ships” — in what appears a reference to the UK defense establishment and its allies at think tanks like the neoconservative the Henry Jackson Society and others, and powerful oil and weapons gulf allies like Saudi Arabia.
nian Ambassador to the UK Hamid Baeidinejad, via Iran News Daily
His statement implied that British ‘deep state’ elements were using the tit-for-tat tanker seizures as a convenient raison d’etre for pushing conflict with Iran.
On Friday Britain had issued its own warnings, with Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt telling the Iranians they face “robust” and “serious consequences,” but he stopped short of discussing military options, instead his statements emphasized diplomacy. The UK has condemnedit as “a hostile act” – and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has indicated European leaders are desperately trying to prevent “uncontrollable military escalation.”
Meanwhile, more details of Iran’s seizure of the still detained Stena Impero tanker have emerged. IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Ramezan Sharif was cited by Iran’s Fars News Agency over the weekend as claiminga Royal Navy warship had attempted to put up “resistance and interference” to prevent Iran’s navy from detaining the vessel.
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The Strait of Hormuz these days seems to be what the streets of Compton used to be in the 90s. Yesterday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it has seized a “foreign vessel” for smuggling fuel. And this morning, news came in that the US has shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, after it allegedly threatened a US warship. About a fifth of global daily oil consumption (c. 21 million barrels) passes through the Strait each day. Moreover, tensions between the US and Iran are more likely to increase than not (don’t forget Iran also shot down a US drone last month). So don’t expect a smooth ride for oil prices this summer.
From the Strait of Hormuz, to back to Europe. According to Bloomberg sources, ECB staff is looking into potentially reforming its inflation target from “below, but close to 2%” to perhaps a policy band around 2%. Such a band would explicitly make the inflation target symmetric (something President Draghi favours), which means that the ECB can better signal willingness to overshoot the target for a short while. As such, it can reinforce inflation expectations if it is seen as a signal of more (or a prolonged period of) loose monetary policy. However, our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen cautions that the risk of such a symmetric band is that the market could also interpret the lower bound as ‘good enough’, especially if inflation keeps undershooting the ECB’s aim. Suppose the band is 0.5%. This implies the ECB might target an inflation rate of 2.5%, but it also implies that an inflation rate of 1.5% is within the ECB’s target band. Hooray, the ECB has achieved its inflation target by simply changing the definition of the target. What does that mean for its credibility? To avoid that situation, a symmetric band should probably be accompanied by more stimulus to rekindle inflation expectations.
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it has seized a foreign vessel with 12-crew members carrying one million barrels of oil. In an official Iranian media statement early on Thursday, the country’s military asserted the tanker was caught “smuggling” the fuel through the Strait of Hormuz.
While details to the breaking story remain confused, with some early reports speculating it could be reference to the Riah tanker which since the past weekend disappeared as it drifted toward Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz, what is clear is that Tehran is ramping up the pressure, perhaps now making good on its longtime threat to cut off global shipping through the vital oil passageway.
Illustrative image: tanker in the Persian Gulf.
A foreign vessel smuggling one million liters of fuel in the Lark Island of the Persian Gulf has been seized,” state run ISNA said, adding that the ship was seized on Sunday.
This was the same day Iran had claimed to have “rescued” the UAE-owned, Panamanian-flagged Riah as it was in need of repairs due to technical problems, however, neither Iran’s military nor media identified the seized vessel or its country in initial statements.
The incident took place to the south of the Iranian Lark Island on Sunday.
IRGC naval forces, which were patrolling the waters on an anti-smuggling mission, acted against the vessel in a “surprise” operation upon ascertaining the nature of its cargo and securing the required legal approval from Iranian authorities.
The ship had loaded the fuel from Iranian dhows and was about to hand it over to other foreign vessels in farther waters. The vessel, which had 12 foreign crewmembers aboard at the time of the mission, is capable of carrying two million liters of fuel.
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) denied reports that their patrol boats tried to stop a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, with IRGC’s naval unit stating that “there were no encounters between the Iranian warships and foreign vessels at the time when the incident is alleged to have taken place,” according to Fars News.
The IRGC also reiterated that they are prepared to “act swiftly and decisively” should they receive an order to capture any foreign ship.
London said three Iranian patrol boats attempted to stop its oil tanker, ‘British Heritage,’ as it was sailing through the Strait of Hormuz to the Persian Gulf. According to the British government statement, the Iranian vessels were forced to back away after receiving a warning from the Royal Navy frigate, HMS ‘Monrose,’ which was escorting another tanker in the area.
As reported previously, tensions between Tehran and London escalated last week when the Royal Marines and Gibraltar’s police seized a Panama-flagged and Singapore-owned supertanker near the Strait of Gibraltar. The ship was suspected of transporting oil to Syria in violation of the EU sanctions on Damascus.
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Earlier:
With the Persian Gulf uncharacteristically quiet in recent days, without any material provocation either real of staged, late on Wednesday CNN reported that three armed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard boats unsuccessfully tried to seize a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. There was no independent verification of the report, but instead it was once again sourced to those who stands to gain the most from a way with Iran, namely “two US officials with direct knowledge of the incident.”
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Echoing prior comments from Tehran’s leaders that a US aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf would set the stage fora “shooting gallery,” the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Tuesday that its ballistic missiles are capable of hitting “carriers in the sea” with great precision.
He also asserted that Iran’s ballistic missile technology had tipped the balance of power in the Middle East in Tehran’s favor, even with an increasing build-up of American forces in the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed last month.
As we previously analyzed, it appears Tehran is now waging its own “maximum counter-pressure” campaign against the White House, given its been largely blocked from exporting its vitaltwo million barrels per day, and the US economic blockade sending its economy into a tailspin. Tehran could force Trump to choose among two bad options: see global oil squeezed with soaring prices due to a “tanker war” and military threats in the Strait of Hormuz, or commit US forces to yet another disastrous regime change war in the Middle East.
Iran appears ready to match threat for threat, as we mentioned: a real war is fast unfolding in the Middle East today, a war where oil tankers and oil delivery to the world (30% of world oil supply goes through the Gulf) are the targets. Brigadier General Hossein Salami
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Following US declarations that Washington and its allies intend to take Iranian crude exports down to “zero” by cancelling waivers previously granted to eight nations, tensions are now soaring over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) attempting to lay down the law amid fears the US Navy could move to block Iran’s access, given the IRGC’s new terror designation.
On Wednesday Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said if the US intends to pass through the Persian Gulf’s vital choke point — the waterway’s narrowest strait routinely patrolled by Iran’s military — “it must dialogue with those who defend it”. Sharif’s wordswere essentially a provocative declaration that the US military must ask Tehran’s “permission” to enter the strait. However, he elsewhere explained that he doesn’t believe that President Trump wants war with Iran, but that he could be “lured into one” by his more hawkish advisers. Image via Mehr News Agency
Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday warned the United States of unspecified “consequences” if it tried to seal off to Tehran the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic passage into the oil-rich Gulf. — Channel News Asia
“I don’t think he wants war,” Zarif said in an interview at the Iranian mission to the UN in New York, according to Reuters. “But that doesn’t exclude him being basically lured into one.”
“Those who have designed the policies that are being pursued do not simply want a negotiated solution. But let me make it clear that Iran is not seeking confrontation, but will not escape defending itself,” Zarif said further.
The Iranian foreign minister also interestingly suggested the possibility that American operatives or their allies could try “to plot an accident” to create a broader crisis, in perhaps a continued cryptic reference to tensions in the Persian Gulf over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Following the US decision to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, and Iran’s decision to do the same with US Central Command in response, Russia’s RT has suggested that the escalation in tensions may put American troops at greater risk while operating in the Middle East.
For example, the 2016 detention of 10 US sailors who strayed into Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf may have gone differently today than it did three years ago.
“The approach will be much different… the American soldiers would be treated as terrorists and not as soldiers of a [state-run] army,” said Ali Rizk, a Middle East-based journalist and writer.
Terrorism is a criminal offense under Iranian law, and so “Iran could have taken the toughest action, including imprisonment and a subsequent trial,”Vladimir Sazhin, senior research fellow at Russia’s Institute for Oriental Studies, stated. –RT
And while National Security John Bolton is undoubtedly a huge fan of the new terrorist designation pissing match, the last two administrations were hesitant to do the same, according to the New York Times.
The George W. Bush administration considered a range of tough actions on Iran during the Iraq war, but held back.
“The potential blowback vastly outweighs the benefits,” said Jeffrey Prescott, a senior Middle East director under President Barack Obama.
Wendy R. Sherman, a former top State Department official, said the Obama administration considered designating the Revolutionary Guards a foreign terrorist organization, but decided against it because there would be no practical payoff given the risks to Americans and the fact the group was already under other sanctions.
“By designating a foreign military as a foreign terrorist organization, we were putting our troops at risk, particularly our troops in Iraq, next door to Iran,” she said.
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The designation should deepen Iran’s international isolation, another step in the maximum pressure campaign against the regime for its nuclear program. Anyone who provides material support to the group can now be prosecuted more easily and IRGC members are blocked from entering the U.S. IRGC officials will also risk arrest and extradition while traveling.
Don’t believe for a minute this is the half of it.
This is the first time ever that the United States government has named a part of another government as a foreign terrorist organization.
What does it mean?
Labeling any group a foreign terrorist organization allows that group to be targeted by the U.S. government by means of the Authorization for Use of Military Force.
Colonel W. Patrick Lang, a retired senior officer of U.S. Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces, writes:
The AUMF on terrorism has been used far and wide as a hunting license to attack any armed group that could even distantly be thought a terrorist enemy. The anti-terrorism AUMF makes such attacks legal under US law.
The official designation as “terrorist” of the IRGC which is a 125000 man army with its own navy and air force makes it legal for the US Armed Forces to attack the IRGC and its people wherever they are found and under any circumstances that may occur. It is a declaration of war.
Former Under-Secretary of State and lead Iran negotiator, Wendy Sherman, told Reuters she worried about implications for U.S. forces.
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It begins: unprecedented tit-for-tat formal “terror” designations exchanged between Washington and Tehran on Monday could soon enter a hot war on the ground. A mere hours after President Trump formally designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization on Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry responded in kind by immediately putting forward a bill placing the US Central Command (CENTCOM) on a list of organizations designated as terrorists, akin to ISIS.
This means each side has given its armed forces authorization to target the other as part of “war on terror” operations. And already on Tuesday an IRGC commander has put the US Navy in the Persian Gulf on notice, warning it not to come anywhere near Revolutionary Guards speed boats. Specifically, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency, Tehran has warned that America’s aircraft carrier currently deployed to the gulf, the USS John C. Stennis, should not come anywhere near IRGC boats. IRGC speed boats, via Tasnim News
An Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander warned the U.S. Navy to keep its warships at a distance from Revolutionary Guards speed boats in Gulf waters, a day after the United States designated the Guards as a terrorist organisation.
“Mr Trump, tell your warships not to pass near the Revolutionary Guards boats,” ISNA news agency reported a tweet from Mohsen Rezaei as saying.
Over the past years there’s been a number of intercept incidents in the Persian Gulf carried out by each side — none of them escalating to the point of serious exchange of fire.
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Just hours after President Trump formally designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, Iran’s foreign ministry has put forward a bill placing US Central Command on a list of organizations designated as terrorists, akin to Daesh.
Today, I am formally announcing my Administration’s plan to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including its Qods Force, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This unprecedented step, led by the Department of State, recognizes the reality that Iran is not only a State Sponsor of Terrorism, but that the IRGC actively participates in, finances, and promotes terrorism as a tool of statecraft. The IRGC is the Iranian government’s primary means of directing and implementing its global terrorist campaign.
This designation will be the first time that the United States has ever named a part of another government as a FTO. It underscores the fact that Iran’s actions are fundamentally different from those of other governments. This action will significantly expand the scope and scale of our maximum pressure on the Iranian regime. It makes crystal clear the risks of conducting business with, or providing support to, the IRGC. If you are doing business with the IRGC, you will be bankrolling terrorism.
This action sends a clear message to Tehran that its support for terrorism has serious consequences. We will continue to increase financial pressure and raise the costs on the Iranian regime for its support of terrorist activity until it abandons its malign and outlaw behavior.
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Iran has issued a number of threats on Friday following official charges made by leaders in Tehran that Saudi Arabia and the UAE funded a terrorist attack on a military parade in a southwest district last Saturday which killed 25 people, including members of the elite Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
Iranian military officials declared “red lines” against the two Gulf countries, threatening war, while in a separate statement a senior cleric said US regional bases will not be safe if “America does anything wrong”.
“If America does anything wrong, their bases around Iran would not remain secure,” Ayatollah Mohammadali Movahedi Kermani was quoted as saying by Mizan news agency while leading Friday prayers in Tehran.
And simultaneously the Fars news agency quoted Brigadier General Hossein Salami, deputy head of the IRGC, as saying in reference to the Saudis and Emirates: “If you cross our red lines, we will surely cross yours. You know the storm the Iranian nation can create.”
IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami
IRGC Gen. Salami was also addressing the crowd during Friday prayers in Tehran: “Stop creating plots and tensions. You are not invincible. You are sitting in a glass house and cannot tolerate the revenge of the Iranian nation…We have shown self-restraint,” he said in a fiery speech.
Salami didn’t stop at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but told the United States to “stop supporting the terrorists or they will pay the price”. The elite IRGC has collectively vowed to exact “deadly and unforgettable” vengeance after some of its members were killed in the Ahvaz attack. During the large funeral ceremony for victims of the attack on Monday, Salami had vowed to strike back against the “triangle” of Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States.
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In the coming days, president Trump is expected to announce that he will decertify the Iran Nuclear Deal, a step that potentially could cause the historic Obama-era accord to unravel. Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to limit its disputed nuclear program in return for the easing of economic sanctions. Realizing the dire threat that such a move presents for its economy – not to mention Iranian oil exports – Iran has escalated the rhetoric, and overnight it warned the United States that U.S. regional military bases “would be at risk” if further sanctions were passed or if the US designated its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist group.
On Friday the Financial Times reported that Donald Trump is expected to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, as part of a new hardline strategy against the Islamic republic.
Mr Trump is expected to announce new measures against Iran, including the prospect of additional targeted sanctions, the designation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation and the adoption of a tougher stance on Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, according to a person briefed on the matter.
“It’s an integrated Iran strategy focused on neutralising and rolling back Iran’s malign activities regionally and globally,” the person said.
Iran was not happy: “The Americans should know that the Trump government’s stupid behavior with the nuclear deal will be used by the Islamic Republic as an opportunity to move ahead with its missile, regional and conventional defense program,” Guards’ commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said, quoted by Reuters. He then explicitly threatened US presence in the region, warning that “if America’s new law for sanctions is passed, this country will have to move their regional bases outside the 2,000 km range of Iran’s missiles.”
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Дамаск заявил о вхождении турецких военных в Сирию
12 пикапов, оборудованных пулеметами, пересекли сирийско-турецкую границу и оказались на территории Сирии. Об этом в воскресенье, 14 февраля, сообщает сирийское агентство SANA со ссылкой на сирийское…
tvrain.ru
“The Syrian government says Turkish forces were believed to be among 100 gunmen it said entered Syria on Saturday accompanied by 12 pick-up trucks mounted with heavy machine guns, in an ongoing supply operation to insurgents fighting Damascus,” Reuters reports. “The operation of supplying ammunition and weapons is continuing via the Bab al-Salama crossing to the Syrian area of Azaz,” the Assad government says.
Meanwhile, since all that would take to unleash a full-blown war is for some Russian to be unexpectedly blown up, events like this do not inspire much confidence in the Syrian “ceasefire”:
On Saturday, the geopolitical world was shocked when Turkey began shelling Aleppo, where the Syrian opposition has its back against the wall in the face of an aggressive advance by Hezbollah and the IRGC supported, of course, by Russian airstrikes.
To be sure, everyone knew Ankara and Riyadh would have to do something quick if they wanted to preserve the rebellion. Their proxies are being rolled up rapidly by Hassan Nasrallah’s army and Vladimir Putin’s air force juggernaut. But few expected the escalation would come so quickly.
But Recep Tayyip Erdogan is unpredictable (just ask the lone surviving pilot of the Su-24 Turkey shot down in November) and this weekend, he decided that there’s no time like the present when it comes to starting World War III.
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