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A Case Study of Fossil-Fuel Depletion

February 13, 2022

A Case Study of Fossil-Fuel Depletion A few months ago I received an intriguing email from researcher and activist Regan Boychuk. For the past 15 years, Boychuk has been studying the oil-and-gas industry in Alberta (Canada) and he wanted to know if I would join his project. I immediately said yes. Some backstory. You can think […]

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Ilaria Perissi explains why mousetraps are like oil wells and why the mousetrap experiment describes the Hubbert curve of oil extraction

September 28, 2021

Ilaria Perissi explains why mousetraps are like oil wells and why the mousetrap experiment describes the Hubbert curve of oil extraction https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipP85oId2rjjNujQlqY4GM44Hjuu9_WWmiFmg24wfx4pL8vT3_pYdyy3Utl-0x1kJw/photo/AF1QipOwGJoFJG-J8mDS4k9265aJQSXzW9iRGFQQQeWf?key=aVJ5V25GSkFLZ0g3dHFrSG1lUFJpTzdVQ0l5Q0FB  

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A new blog dedicated to the Seneca Effect

February 1, 2016

A new blog dedicated to the Seneca Effect   The Seneca Trap is a repository of the posts dedicated to the “Seneca Effect” that appeared, and will appear, on “Cassandra’s Legacy The idea of collapse is bad enough for most people when it deals with the running out of mineral resources along the symmetrical “bell shaped” […]

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Despite Cheap Gas, Coming Back to Peak Oil [Infographic]

November 22, 2015

Despite Cheap Gas, Coming Back to Peak Oil [Infographic] Yesterday, in Virginia, I filled up my gas tank for $2.75 a gallon. At that price, even old peak oilers like my wife and I hardly think about poor old King Hubbard’s theory much these days. And though gas has been cheap in the U.S. for […]

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Peak of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

August 18, 2015

Peak of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale An ocean of ink has already been spilled on pros and cons of using Hubbert curves to model production from a large collection of wells in one or many reservoirs.  In 2010, I published together with my last graduate student in Berkeley, Dr. Greg Croft, a highly cited […]

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Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality?

June 16, 2015

Peak Oil: Myth Or Coming Reality? In 1956, a geoscientist named M. King Hubbert formulated a theory which suggested that U.S. oil production would eventually reach a point at which the rate of oil production would stop growing. After production hit that peak, it would enter terminal decline. The resulting production profile would resemble a […]

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Climate change: can the Seneca effect save us?

April 26, 2015

Climate change: can the Seneca effect save us? Nothing we do (or try to do) seems to be able to stop carbon dioxide from accumulating in the atmosphere. And, as a consequence, nothing seems to be able to stop climate change. With the situation getting worse and worse (see here for an example), we are hoping that […]

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Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak – The Automatic Earth

December 23, 2014

Broken Energy Markets and the Downside of Hubbert’s Peak – The Automatic Earth. Euan: A few commenters have mentioned peak oil recently. I am cautious about making forecasts and predictions and prefer instead to observe and document the data as the peak oil story unfolds. I have in fact published a couple of charts recently illustrating […]

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RESOURCE CRISIS: Seneca cliffs of the third kind: how technological progress can generate a faster collapse

December 16, 2014

RESOURCE CRISIS: Seneca cliffs of the third kind: how technological progress can generate a faster collapse.   The image above (from Wikipedia) shows the collapse of the North Atlantic cod stocks. The fishery disaster of the early 1990s was the result of a combination of greed, incompetence, and government support for both. Unfortunately, it is […]

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RESOURCE CRISIS: Fossil fuels: are we on the edge of the Seneca cliff?

December 9, 2014

RESOURCE CRISIS: Fossil fuels: are we on the edge of the Seneca cliff?. “It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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