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US October Oil Production Pushed Higher by New Mexico

US October Oil Production Pushed Higher by New Mexico

All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs December Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated information up to October 2022.

U.S. October production increased by 69 kb/d to 12,381 kb/d to a New post pandemic high.  It should be noted that September’s oil production increase of 289 kb/d to 12,268 kb/d which was reported last month and was considered high, was revised further up by 44 kb/d to 12,312 kb/d in the current October report. For September, the state with the largest increase was New Mexico 41 kb/d, along with a number of small increases from the smaller producing states.

While overall US oil production increased, a clearer indication of the health of US production can be gleaned by looking more closely at the Onshore L48 states.  In the Onshore L48, October production increased by 69 kb/d to 10,104 kb/d. This means that 100% of the increase in US production came from the Onshore L48.

The blue graph, taken from the December 2022 STEO, is the production forecast for the U.S. from November 2022 to December 2023. Output for December 2023 is expected to be 12,614 kb/d, 34 kb/d higher than reported last month.

Note that production in October 2023 is forecast to be lower than in October 2022. The flatness in overall US output up to October 2023 is because the production increase in the Onshore L48 of 506 kb/d from December 2022 to December 2023 is offset by declining production in the GOM. See GOM chart further down.

The red OLS line from June 2020 to October 2022 indicates a monthly production increase of 53.2 kb/d/mth over that period. The first portion of red line stops at October because that is the range covered by the OLS analysis. The second portion is the same OLS line extended to see how well it fits the STEO forecast.

Oil Production Ranked by State

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Ida Hit Crushes Crude Output In Gulf Of Mexico, Ranked Worst In 16 Years

Ida Hit Crushes Crude Output In Gulf Of Mexico, Ranked Worst In 16 Years

Hurricane Ida’s disruption to the U.S. offshore energy production in the Gulf of Mexico is the worst in 16 years. It has already stressed domestic and global supply chains, further testing the Federal Reserve’s “transitory” inflation narrative.

Gulf Coast hurricanes usually cause minor disruptions in offshore oil and gas production, but this time around, output from the region has been significantly reduced due to Ida’s 150 mph winds that damaged platforms and onshore support facilities.

What this will mean is a long recovery for offshore energy production to return. Reuters notes 79% of the region’s offshore oil production remains offline.

Since the first oil platforms were evacuated ahead of Ida, there’s been a loss of 17.5 million barrels of oil. Some energy analysts are expecting U.S. production could drop by 30 million barrels this year due to the sluggish return.

“After Katrina, which made landfall 16 years ago on the same day as Ida did this year, it was well into the following year before oil production resumed its normal level,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch told clients. “That said, Katrina was followed shortly after by another devastating hurricane, namely Rita.”

There is currently a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance of developing over the next two days.

The outage has left a noticeable imprint on NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures hovering around the $70 handle, up more than 11% since weather models first forecasted Ida would make landfall around the Louisiana region.

There’s no clear timeline when full production will return. “There could be volumes that are offline for a considerable amount of time,” said Facts Global Energy (FGE) consultant Krista Kuhl. “It’s just too early to tell.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Ida Shuts Down More Than 90% of Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Ida Shuts Down More Than 90% of Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico

Experts say the oil refineries that have been shut down account for 9% of the country’s total.

 A gas pump with gas selling for $1.04 a gallon is shown on May 07, 2020 in Baltimore, Maryland.
A gas pump with gas selling for $1.04 a gallon is shown on May 07, 2020 in Baltimore, Maryland. 
Photo: Rob Carr (Getty Images)

As if reversing the course of the Mississippi River, forcing hospitals to hunker down with patients that couldn’t be moved, and nearly shutting off the power and internet in New Orleans wasn’t enough, Hurricane Ida has also disrupted oil and gas production.

The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement on Sunday said that 95.6% of current oil production and 93.7% of the gas production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut down in response to Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm in Louisiana. Offshore Gulf operators had to evacuate personnel due to Ida and as of Sunday had moved workers off 288 production platforms, or 51.4% of manned platforms in the area, and 11 rigs, or 100% structures in the area.

In addition, the BSEE reported that 10 dynamically positioned rigs—which are not moored to the seafloor and can change locations in a relatively short period of time—had moved out of the storm’s projected path. They represent 66.7% of the total dynamically positioned rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

A hurricane making landfall in this area is the one of the worst things that could happen to the oil industry, experts told CNN, and could impact the pipelines that ferry fuel to the East Coast. Andy Lipow, president of the Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told the outlet that six refineries in New Orleans are currently shut down. These refineries—which include PBF, Phillips, Shell, Marathon, and two Valero refineries—produce 1.7 million barrels per day, or 9% of the country’s total.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US April Oil Production Flat

US April Oil Production Flat

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. After the production charts, an analysis of three EIA monthly reports that project future production is provided. The charts below are updated to April 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. April production was essentially flat. It decreased by 19 kb/d to 11,169 kb/d from Marchʼs output of 11,188 kb/d. It was also 113 kb/d higher than January’s.

The June STEO report forecasted US April output would be 11,082 kb/d vs the reported actual output for April of 11,169 kb/d, an under estimate of 87 kb/d. 

In the onshore lower 48, April production increased by 80 kb/d, red graph. The 99 kb/d difference between the US’ decrease and the On-shore L48’s increase was largely due to the 92 kb/d decrease from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for 80.8% of US production out of a total production of 11,169 kb/d in April 2021. 

On a MoM basis, the largest barrel increases came from Colorado, Texas and New Mexico. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico and Utah had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico’s output surpassed North Dakota and moved into second place.

Production by State

Texas production increased by 28 kb/d in April to 4,791 kb/d.  In the EIA’s June report, March’s output was revised up by 18 kb/d from 4,745 kb/d to 4,763 kb/d.

In April there were close to 194 oil rigs operation in Texas. By the fourth week of June 25, 201 were operating. From the end of April to the week of June 25, Texas added 7 oil rigs. It appears that the rate of adding rigs in Texas has slowed. See Rig chart in Section 4 further down.

April’s New Mexico production increased by 17 kb/d to 1,172 kb/d. April’s output is a new record.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

US March Oil Production Rebounds Strongly From Winter Storm Low

All of the oil (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIAʼs Petroleum Supply monthly PSM. The charts below are updated to March 2021 for the 10 largest US oil producing states.

U.S. March production increased by 1,401 kb/d to 11,184 kb/d from Februaryʼs output of 9,783 kb/d and was also 128 kb/d higher than January’s. The increase was due to the rebound from the severe winter storm that hit the four US southern states, Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Note that February’s output of 9,862 kb/d in the previous report was revised down by 79 kb/d to 9,783 kb/d in the current report.

The May STEO report forecasted US March output would be 10,939 kb/d vs the reported actual output for March of 11,184, an under estimate of 245 kb/d. Note that March output was 57 kb/d higher than January.

In the onshore lower 48, March production increased by 1,298 kb/d, red graph. The 103 kb/d difference between the two was largely due to the 107 kb/d increase from the GOM.

Ranking Production from US States

Listed above are the 10 states with the largest US production. These 10 accounted for (79.8%) of US production out of a total production of 11,184 kb/d in March 2021. 

Of these 10 states, Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma had the biggest percentage output increases relative to February. On a YoY basis, all states except New Mexico had a lower output than last year. Note also that New Mexico surpassed North Dakota in output and moved into second place.

Rig additions continued in the US from the August low of 172 to 359 in the last week of May. Over the last month there is a hint of slowing in rig additions in Texas and the Permian.

Frac spreads continue to increase at an average rate of close to 15.1/mth. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

  BakkenGulf of MexicoNon-OPEC productionTexasUS Oil Production, peak oil barrel, 

Unplugged: Abandoned oil and gas wells leave the ocean floor spewing methane

Unplugged: Abandoned oil and gas wells leave the ocean floor spewing methane

The Gulf of Mexico is littered with tens of thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells, and toothless regulation leaves climate warming gas emissions unchecked.

Out on the deck of a research boat, Tara Yacovitch looked out to the water. In the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, the seascape is peppered with lights. And every light is part of an offshore oil or gas platform.

Offshore platforms can vary greatly in size—some are as big as multi-storied buildings, while others resemble small but very tall rooms. The boat carrying Yacovitch and her team also housed a variety of science equipment: methane isotope readers, spectrometers, and other tools to measure methane levels in the air around these sites.

Yacovitch, an instrument scientist at Aerodyne Research, is trying to understand the scope of what some scientists say is a massive environmental issue lurking below our seas. Wells are routinely drilled into the sea floor for oil and gas production, and abandoned when they stop being economically viable—sometimes this is after years of oil or gas extraction, sometimes it’s part way through drilling before the well is even finished. But not all of these wells are plugged and properly maintained before being left behind. The result: methane and other gases leaking in unknown quantities for years on end from tens of thousands of holes in the ocean floor.

The harms for the ocean and its inhabitants, and the atmosphere above, are largely unknown. But we do know that methane is about 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, measured over a 20-year period, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Latest Gulf Storm Brings Tough Choices for Residents of Disappearing Isle de Jean Charles

Latest Gulf Storm Brings Tough Choices for Residents of Disappearing Isle de Jean Charles

Resident returns home amid floodwaters on Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana

While most of Louisiana was spared Barry’s wrath last week, Isle de Jean Charles, a quickly eroding strip of land among coastal wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico, was not. A storm surge swept over the island, about 80 miles southwest of New Orleans, early in the morning on July 13 before Barry was upgraded from a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane.

On July 15, I met with Albert Naquin, Chief of the Isle de Jean Charles Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe (IDJC) and Wenceslaus Billiot Jr., the Tribe’s deputy chief, to travel to the island and assess the damages. That afternoon, we made our way through the receding waters that still covered Island Road, the only route connecting the island to the mainland. Days after the storm, some parts of the road on the island were still submerged in three feet of water.

Chief Albert Naquin near dead fish in floodwaters and a truck on the Isle de Jean Charles

Albert Naquin, Chief of the Isle de Jean Charles Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe (IDJC), on the island standing near dead fish in the floodwaters.

Fishing camps and homes damaged amid floodwaters on the Isle de Jean Charles after Tropical Storm Barry

Fishing camps and permanent residences on the island were difficult to access on July 15, due to remaining floodwater following Barry’s storm surge.

The Isle de Jean Charles received worldwide attention in 2016, when the IDJC Tribe helped the State of Louisiana secure a $48 million federal grant to resettle the disappearing island’s residents.

The resettlement project drew considerable notice from both the media and those looking for models to relocate other coastal communities due to sea level rise quickened by climate change. Years later, however, the Tribe can point toward little progress in permanently relocating the less than 20 families remaining on the island — most of which belong to the IDJC Tribe.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

EPA Plans to Allow Unlimited Dumping of Fracking Wastewater in the Gulf of Mexico


Originally published on www.truthout.org (republished with permission)

Environmentalists are warning the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that its draft plan to continue allowing oil and gas companies to dump unlimited amounts of fracking chemicals and wastewater directly into the Gulf of Mexico is in violation of federal law.

In a letter sent to EPA officials, attorneys for the Center for Biological Diversity warned that the agency’s draft permit for water pollution discharges in the Gulf fails to properly consider how dumping wastewater containing chemicals from fracking and acidizing operations would impact water quality and marine wildlife.

The attorneys claim that regulators do not fully understand how the chemicals used in offshore fracking and other well treatments — some of which are toxic and dangerous to human and marine life — can impact marine environments, and crucial parts of the draft permit are based on severely outdated data. Finalizing the draft permit as it stands would be a violation of the Clean Water Act, they argue.

The EPA is endangering an entire ecosystem by allowing the oil industry to dump unlimited amounts of fracking chemicals and drilling waste fluid into the Gulf of Mexico,” said Center attorney Kristen Monsell. “This appalling plan from the agency that’s supposed to protect our water violates federal law, and shows a disturbing disregard for offshore fracking’s toxic threats to sea turtles and other Gulf wildlife.”

The Center has a history of using legal action to stop polluters and challenge the government to enforce environmental regulations, so the letter could be seen as a warning shot over the EPA’s bow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Hurricane Michael Shuts In 40% Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Production

Hurricane Michael Shuts In 40% Of Gulf Of Mexico Oil Production

Michael

Roughly 40 percent of the Gulf of Mexico’s oil production and 28 percent of its natural gas production was shut down as of Tuesday, as the region braced for a powerful hurricane to make landfall.

At least 75 platforms were evacuated, according to Reuters, including those operated by Anadarko Petroleum, BHP Billiton, BP, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Hurricane Michael strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it approached the Florida Panhandle, threatening catastrophic damage to Florida’s Gulf Coast. “Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall,” the National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour as of Wednesday morning.

An estimated 670,800 barrels per day of oil production and around 726 million cubic feet per day of natural gas production shut down. At least three drilling rigs were evacuated and eight more were moved out of the range of the storm, according to BSEE.

Also, the U.S.’ largest crude oil export terminal, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), idled operations. LOOP is the only port in the United States that can handle fully laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which can carry 2 million barrels of oil.

The storm will be a very different one than Hurricane Florence, which inundated much of North Carolina a few weeks ago. Florence was a slow moving monster that dumped biblical volumes of rain on the region. Michael is expected to move much faster, moving out of the region and up the U.S. Southeast pretty quickly. That should reduce the extent of damage from catastrophic flooding, but the high speed winds are expected to do a lot of damage. As many as 200,000 people in Florida could be without power, according to Duke Energy.

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“A Once In A Lifetime Event”: Michael Will Be The Strongest Hurricane To Hit US In 14 Years

Update (9 am ET): Hurricane Michael continued to strengthen Wednesday morning, as the Category 4 storm’s wind speed increased to 145 mph. The storm is now poised to be the strongest to hit the US in 14 years, boasting a life threatening storm surge and the potential to cause $16 billion in damages.

The storm is now roughly 90 miles southwest of Panama City and is heading north at 13 miles per hour, according to the NHC’s latest update. The storm’s outer bands are already battering the coastal town of Apalachicola with winds of nearly 50 mph.


Here is the 8 AM CDT position update for – water levels are rising and winds increasing along the Florida Panhandle as potentially catastrophic approaches.


As it stands, the storm is also poised to be the strongest to hit the Florida panhandle and big bend since meteorologists first started gathering data. Regional ports have closed in anticipation, and more than 230 flights have been canceled. Duke Energy Corp., a utility that supplies electricity to the region, expects more than 200,000 customers in the state will be without power. In preparation for the widespread outages, local utilities have about 19,000 workers on stand by ready to work to quickly restore power, with more workers pouring in from out of state. Still, some areas are expected to be without power for more than a week, per the Daily Commercial.

“A storm like this could be a once-in-a-lifetime event,” said Brett Rathbun, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “Winds of this intensity can really knock down any tree or structure in its path.”

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Evacuations Ordered As “Monstrous Hurricane” Michael Intensifies Into “Most Powerful Storm In A Decade

In a repeat of the scramble for safety that preceded the landfall of Hurricane Irma during the 2017 storm season, residents of the Florida panhandle are boarding up homes and fleeing inland as Hurricane Michael, already a Category 1 storm following a rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, barrels toward the northern Gulf of Mexico, where it’s projected to make landfall on Wednesday, possibly as a Category 3 storm.


Hurricane Michael is moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Here are the 4 am CDT October 9th Key Messages on Hurricane .

“The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 5 a.m. New York time.

Michael

The hurricane could generate a 12-foot surge, and 4-8 inches of rain in the region, with isolated areas getting as much as 12 inches. Michael is arriving less than a month after Florence hit North Carolina on Sept. 14, causing devastating floods, killing at least 39 and causing about $45 billion in estimated damages. Duke Energy Corp. warned customers in the region to prepare for potential outages.

After initially forming over the coast of Honduras, Michael battered western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, causing flash flooding that left 13 dead, per CNN. With a hurricane warning in place from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwannee River in Florida, and a hurricane watch in effect for the coast of Alabama, Florida’s governor Rick Scott called Michael “a monstrous hurricane“, and declared a state of emergency for 35 Florida counties from the panhandle to Tampa Bay.

Michael

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GoM Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

GoM Reserves and Production Update, 1H2018

crude and condensate reserves

chart/

BOEM remaining C&C reserve estimates for GoM increased by 649 mmbbls for 2016 (i.e. to 31st December 2016). This was 112% reserve replacement and followed a similar growth of 618 mmbbls (111% reserve replacement) for 2015. The BOEM reserve calculation method appears to give highly conservative estimates. The increasing reserves followed several years, from 2006, of less than 100% reserve replacement, and actually negative numbers in 2006 and 2008. Current total original reserves (i.e. ultimate recovery) are a new high beating 2006 values, though deep water numbers are still below that year with the main growth appearing to be coming from: 1) older fields that were downgraded because of changes in SPE rules in 2007 (i.e. that reserves could only be booked if there were clear plans for their development within five years); and 2) newer discoveries, mostly smaller fields that are developed through tie-backs to existing hubs. These newer fields often do not get shown as new discoveries because BOEM records production and reserves against leases and each lease is recorded against a single field, even if there are deposits of different depth, age, geology and significant spacial separation within in it.

Current oil reserves are 3.569 Gb, which is 15% of the estimated original reserve (aka ultimate recovery). BOEM give the reserves as 2P (i.e. proven and probable) but they look very conservative and are actually lower than the EIA numbers, shown below, given for proven only and based on the operators own numbers, although the two are converging. The historical reserve histories look closer to how 1P (proven) numbers often appear, for example with some fields maintaining near constant R/P numbers, some showing large early drops that then come back over time, and some numbers being suspiciously low on fields obviously not near run out production rates (e.g. Mad Dog and Son of Bluto 2).

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An Oceanic Problem: the Atlantic Overturning Current is Slowing

An Oceanic Problem: the Atlantic Overturning Current is Slowing

Photo by Michael Mayer | CC BY 2.0

The Atlantic Overturning Current is part of a worldwide twisted loop of ocean water, called the thermohaline cycle (thermo = heat, haline = salt), which emerges very salty and warm out of the Gulf of Mexico, travels north as a surface current along the east coast of North America, veers east in the North Atlantic toward Europe, then loops back west to a region just south of Greenland where it cools and sinks to the ocean floor – because it has become denser than the surrounding and less salty North Atlantic waters (colder water is denser than warmer water, and saltier water is denser than fresher water of equal temperature). The dense highly salted descending water then runs as a cold deep ocean current south along the east coast of South America, and continues in a complicated path along the ocean floor into the Pacific Ocean, where it warms and eventually rises to become a surface current of more buoyant less salty water. This current distributes solar heat collected by ocean waters in tropical latitudes to higher latitudes (closer to the poles).

In 2004, Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall described the thermohaline cycle this way: “In this thousand-year cycle, water from the surface in tropical areas becomes more saline through evaporation. When it circulates to the poles and becomes cold (“thermo”), the greater density still present from higher salt (“haline”) concentration causes the water to sink to great depths. As with most large-scale geological processes, the thermohaline cycle is not thoroughly understood. Wallace Broecker has been studying the cycle for decades and, according to the December 1996 issue of Discover magazine, he has shown that the thermohaline cycle has not always been in operation, and that it has a strong effect on global climate.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gulf Of Mexico Output Falls Nearly 100% After Hurricane Nate

Gulf Of Mexico Output Falls Nearly 100% After Hurricane Nate

offshore rig

As of Sunday, 92.61 percent of crude oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said. In barrels, this amounted to 1.62 million per day, with 298 platforms and 14 rigs evacuated, representing 40.43 percent and 70 percent of platforms and rigs in the Gulf, respectively. Another 10 rigs, dynamically positioned ones, were moved from their locations as a precaution.

Nate, which made final landfall in Mississippi, has been moving inland and has in the process weakened back into a tropical depression. Heavy rains are in the forecast, according to the Weather Channel, but oil and gas field and refinery operators are already preparing to restart their shut-in facilities

Chevron and Shell are bringing back personnel to the platforms and doing assessments on the infrastructure, including platforms, pipelines, and terminals. New Orleans has already resumed normal port operations and vessel traffic, quenching worries that Nate will disrupt oil and fuel shipments from one of the main Gulf Coast ports.

Chevron also said it was assessing the impact of the hurricane on its Pascagoula refinery, which has a daily capacity of 340,000 bpd, and which Genscape said Chevron had shut down on Saturday. Chevron never confirmed the report, and on Sunday there were signs of activity at the refinery.

Phillips 66, however, shut down its Alliance refinery, with a capacity of 247,000 bpd, and has now reported it undamaged from the hurricane. The company planned to restart the facility yesterday, but because of a crude oil shortage in the Gulf, it may take a few more days for the refinery to resume normal operations.

This shortage should have a beneficial if short-lived effect on prices as well as on inventories while the platforms and refineries that were shut down return to normal operation.

 

GoM June Production Update

GoM June Production Update

Production

Production for June by BOEM was 1631 kbpd and by EIA 1636, compared with 1673 and 1659 kbpd, respectively, in May. The decline was mostly from Thunder Horse going offline and Constitution staying offline. Hurricane Cindy didn’t seem to have much of an impact, things will be different for the impact of Harvey on August figures.

Even with the two offline facilities coming back July numbers will struggle to beat those for March, and after that the depletion declines and hurricane disruptions take over. Note that the “others” area includes any assumptions BOEM has made to allow for missing data, which is quite a lot this month.

chart/

The combined new fields added from late 2014 are holding a plateau with South Santa Cruz and Barataria fields added and a new lease for Marmalard starting (adding about 20 kbpd combined). Stones also had a better month and achieved 70% of nameplate capacity. It’s interesting that five leases have come on line and then have effectively been killed off in this thirty month period: Amethyst (a small gas field that died after sputtering along for about six months, and not shown as the flow was so small), one lease in Lucius, Kodiak, one lease in Caesar/Tonga/Tahiti, and one in Rigel. Dalmatian South production fell immediately after start-up and was offline for a couple of months but came back in June (there are plans for subsea pumping to be installed but I don’t now the present status).

chart/

The big drops have been for BP, with Thunder Horse off line for part of June, and for Anadarko with the Constitution shut down extending into a second month (I think a bit longer than was planned).

chart/

chart/

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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